I spend a lot of my time with the various grassroots campaigns (Repower America, Environmental Defense Action Fund, INPIRG, and others) pushing for Senators Bayh and Lugar to vote 'yes' on the ACES bill. As we ramp up local pressure on these two gentlemen, I am hoping that pressure from across the nation (like the good people at Daily Kos) can help them see the light on clean energy legislation. For now, though, my efforts are mostly local. Every day I talk to voters about the ACES bill, and every day I'm faced with one very frustrating question: Well why isn't Senator Bayh supporting this bill?
This is one in a series of Adopt A Senator For ACES diaries. RLMiller is coordinating a whip project in which a volunteer targets a particular Senator, ascertains and diaries the Senator's likely vote on ACES, and tracks the Senator's position as the bill moves through the Senate. Meteor Blades has previously written Adopt-A-Senator For ACES Targets Climate Legislation, and RLMiller originally announced Adopt A Senator for ACES, Win Friends, Influence Senate. Please contact RLMiller (email address in her profile) if you're interested in participating.
It's a fair question. He is a Democrat. He has (had?) close ties to Obama, who very much wants a climate bill before December. Many of his biggest donors by sector support ACES. His state is plagued by unemployment, mostly in regions that will only benefit from a clean energy revolution. And while he isn't the most environmentally friendly Senator, it would be hard to label him as an enemy of all things nature. So why isn't Senator Bayh supporting ACES?
His Position on ACES
It's important to note that Senator Bayh is not a firm 'no' on ACES. He very much leans 'no,' and so far efforts to change his mind have been been Sisyphean, but he is not a hopeless case. In other words, he's no Inhofe. So far his objections to the ACES bill have been three-fold:
1.That cap and trade will drive jobs to both other nations (ones with less strict renewable energy requirements) and to less carbon intensive states.
2.The ACES bill will place the burden too heavily on American manufacturers. Again, according to Bayh, our neighbors to the south will benefit.
3.Indiana is one of the biggest carbon producers in the nation, coming in at #6. Penalties on carbon production will too harshly affect Indiana citizens.
The problem with cap and trade and global warming, Chris, is, we can do it but if you don’t do it right, you run the risk of sending jobs from our country, like your home state of Pennsylvania, and mine of Indiana, to other countries with lower emission standards. So the irony would be we’d lose jobs and not help with global warming. You can do that, but you have to do it in the right way...
The take away from these three positions is that Bayh is not ideologically opposed to cap-and-trade, or climate change legislation. Even more give-aways to energy intensive sectors, as well as tariffs and protectionist measures might garner his support. Are the give-aways, such as monetary support and heavy tax incentives, worth his vote? How much will they weaken ACES effectiveness? And how about tariffs?
His Environmental Voting Record
Environmentally, Bayh is not the most progressive senator, but he doesn't show an unwillingness to consider all environmental bills. He has acknowledged that global warming is real, and that it is caused largely by man's actions, which is a good start. The League of Conservation voters gives him a score of 82% for the 2nd session of the 110th Congress. Progressive Punch gives him a score of 67%, with slightly lower scores for renewable energy and global warming legislation.
However, recently Bayh has been less inclined to vote for popular Democratic environmental measures. He was one of three Democrats who voted against cloture on an energy bill last year, and this year he was the only Democrat on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee to oppose a renewable electricity standard in that committee's major energy bill. (Source: Politico)
This new timidity on voting for pro-environmental legislation is a bit troubling considering Bayh has national aspirations (leader and creator of the moderate caucus, twice candidate for Vice President). Why? Most of the nation supports the broad changes ACES creates.
Nearly six in 10 of those polled support the proposed changes to U.S. energy policy being developed by Congress and the administration. Fifty-five percent of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling the issue, compared with 30 percent who do not. A narrower majority, 52 to 43 percent, back a cap-and-trade system; that margin is unchanged since June. A cap-and-trade system would set a ceiling for the nation's greenhouse gas emissions, and it would allow firms to buy and sell emissions permits...Solar and wind power enjoy near-universal support; nine in 10 people support further development. More than eight in 10 favor requirements for greater fuel efficiency. Broad majorities also favor requiring increased energy conservation from businesses and consumers.
More on his energy and environmental voting record here and here.
He clearly isn't ideologically opposed to helping the environment, but will need a very strong push to put him on the correct side of the ACES debate.
Donations
Often on the ground I'll hear from Hoosiers that Bayh won't support this bill due to coal money. This is a tricky call. Yes, he does receive money from the coal sector, but not so much that other pro-ACES sectors don't equal or outweigh coal's influence. Bayh is the 6th biggest recipient of money from the coal industry in the Senate, and the 4th biggest Democratic recipient so far this year (total of $6,000 for the 2010 cycle). However, in the 2008 cycle he didn't even crack the top 20 (Obama was #15). In the 2008 cycle, labor (which is almost entirely on board with ACES) edged out all energy industry donations by a few thousand dollars. (Complete breakdown here.)
That said, if you expand your view to how much money Senator Bayh has received from coal (and related energy) industries, the picture changes a bit. Over the course of his Senatorial career, Senator Bayh has received MAJOR money from Peabody Industries--the largest private-sector coal company in the world. How major? Over $50,000. Over the course of his career, total donations from the Energy and Natural Resources sector has totaled more than $600,000. Once again, however, other pro-ACES sectors have donated more money.
Consider this: will Labor, as a sector, support a Republican opponent in an election? Incredibly doubtful. Will Energy/Natural Resources support a Republican opponent with their large coffers? Undoubtedly. As long as money from pro-ACES sectors is safe with Bayh regardless of his vote, Coal and Energy money will have much more importance.
Does he matter?
Absolutely.
First, Senator Bayh sits on the important Energy and Natural Resources committee, one of the six committees forming the Senate version of ACES. Republicans on the formation committees will already be doing their best to water down or destroy ACES. Any Democrats on these committees not only need to be assured supporters, but ones who aren't going to water down the bill to a point of ineffectiveness.
Second, this vote is going to be a close one. While, unlike health care, we may be able to bring in more than a couple Republican votes, we will still be looking at passing it by just one or two votes. When ACES was first passed in the House, Nate Silver put the number of likely 'yes' Senate votes at 52. I have seen few indications in these past few months that would drastically change this position. The exception: we no longer have 2 yes votes from Massachusetts. While some Republican Senators may have moved from "No fracking way" to "probably hells no" (I'm looking at you, Senators Lugar and Graham), our position on the number of votes still remains as it was back in June: A razor-thin, fillibuster-endangered, unstable margin of yes's. This alone means that Senator Bayh's vote is incredibly important.
There is a third reason that Senator Bayh's vote is important to the passage of ACES: other Senators are watching. Evan Bayh is the leader of the moderate caucus in the senate, and he is up for re-election in a coal-mining and burning, labor filled, carbon intensive, agricultural, politically red state. If Bayh decides that he is politically safe(ish) to vote yes, other moderate fence-sitters from rural/agricultural/coal states will look to Bayh as indicator of their own safety (Lincoln, Nelson, et al). Persuading Bayh to vote yes could start to move more than a few more centrists and conservadems towards a "maybe" or "possibly yes."
How to Target Him—What's the message?
Two of the biggest problems, as stated above, is the amount of carbon used by the state, and the issue of jobs. If Bayh can be convinced that one or both of these issues is a moot point, he may just swing the other way.
Jobs:
This should be the easiest point to convince Bayh on, yet is proving the most difficult. Almost every labor union in the state has signed onto the Blue-Green Alliance, and has stated support for the ACES bill. The eventual loss of coal-mining jobs is undeniable, however the ACES bill is designed to move towards a high level of renewable energy over 3 decades. In theory, these job losses will be gradual, with many of the losses coming from retiring workers. Furthermore, this bill is a job creation bill due to increased demands in clean energy components manufacturing, and home and building weatherization projects.
Indiana has one of the highest potentials for new jobs in the nation--between 35,000 and 45,000 net new jobs. (Full report [pdf])
If a potential loss of jobs really is one of Bayh's top concerns, well good for him. Every Senator should be concerned with their state's job health. But if it is one of Bayh's top concerns, then passing ACES should be a must for him, as it will only work to improve Indiana's 10% unemployment rate.
The China Factor
Bayh, and many other Senators, have stated that ACES will push jobs to China and India--countries with lax carbon laws and a growing economy. Furthermore, since these countries use so much carbon, and reductions America makes will just be swallowed up by China and India's growing carbon output. Without a carbon reduction plan in place in these countries, Bayh simply couldn't support a Cap-and-Trade plan in the U.S.A.
Enter Hu Jintao. Yesterday China's President announced that China would, within a decade, produce 15% of its electricity by renewable means, and reforest an area the size of Norway. China also promised a "notable" decrease in their carbon output by 2020.
Bayh's response: (subscription req'd--E&E news)
Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) said he had not yet seen the details. "But that’s a step in the right direction," he said. "Clearly, the major economies are going to need to do this in concert. And it’ll be difficult for us to act unless the Chinese and the Indians are willing to make commitments that will actually solve this problem. So it’s a good sign. I’ll be interested to know the magnitude of it and whether it suggests further progress or whether it’s just symbolic."
It is true that we need to know the magnitude of what constitutes a "notable decrease." This announcement from China, however, indicates that they are willing to make changes to their CO2 structure, and are willing to come to the table with other countries. It is now more urgent than ever that we pass a climate and carbon bill before the Copenhagen conference in December.
It is also more imperative than ever that we pass a green jobs bill, or else instead of carbon intensive jobs escaping to China, the very green jobs we want to create will.
Indiana's Carbon Use
Reducing the amount of carbon used by the energy sector in Indiana, if not done right, could lead to huge increases in the average energy bill of Hoosiers. Evan Bayh is right to be concerned by this, as its probably one of the trickier parts of moving to a renewable energy economy. It is for this reason that Senator Bayh needs to act with boldness on this issue. Indiana has the fastest growing wind energy sector in the nation. Encouraging an even faster growth of wind energy will only serve to bring the costs of clean energy down at a much quicker pace. ACES will provide much of the money and policies needed to do this. Furthermore, ACES provides millions upon millions of dollars to Hoosier residents to invest in energy saving technology--technology that will ensure their energy bills remain stable (or even lower), even if wind energy has an initial rise in prices.
If Bayh doesn't back ACES, and the bill fails, that won't necessarily mean that dirty coal plants can continue to operate as normal, producing their cheap(er) dirty energy. The executive branch has shown a willingness to aggressively pursue reducing our carbon use through tighter standards (and here.) Without the encouragement of renewable energy that ACES provides, Indiana will be faced with implementing 'clean coal' measures on current and new coal plants. And, as many, many studies (and real world examples) have shown, 'clean coal' technology creates energy that is 3 times more expensive than wind energy.
Bayh's choice then is this: Support ACES now, and be blessed with a fast growing wind energy sector, and money to help your residents lower their energy bills. Or wait, and a few years from now see skyrocketing energy costs because of Indiana's heavy carbon use—the very thing he was trying to avoid.
Re-Election
Bayh is in a fairly safe position, but Indiana sometimes can be hinky when it comes to re-electing popular Democrats--especially when perceived tax increases are involved. To alleviate ACES related re-election fears, Bayh needs to take a page out of Representative Baron Hill's (D-IN) book. Representative Hill, who Represents coal-dependent Southern Indiana, voted for ACES in June when conventional wisdom said that it would cost him dearly politically. The result? A recent poll has shown that in his district, support for Cap-and-Trade has now reached 45%. Opposition Cap-and-Trade has fallen to 30%.
"We went into three districts where conventional wisdom held that Democrats took a tough vote on cap and trade," Allan Rivlin, a partner with Garin Hart Yang, told me. "The poll shows that it didn’t hurt these members in these districts. It actually helps them. Even in districts that are represented by moderate or conservative Democrats, supporting action on climate change is the popular position to take."
How to Target Him—What's the Tactic?
Field Organizers in Indiana have been hitting at Bayh with a variety of tactics--petitions, phone calls, emails, op-eds--all the normal operations of a grassroots legislation campaign. Unlike Lugar, who has been very forthcoming with what he is paying attention to (petition signatures, daily contacts from constituents of any type), Bayh has been a bit more of a mystery. Within this past week, word on the ground has been that he is paying attention to at least two methods:
-His staff is reading handwritten letters (emails and form letters aren't cutting it).
-He has had staff members tallying the amount of phone calls that he receives, as well as the phone calls Representatives have received.
It is with this in mind that the various grassroots campaigns in Indiana have started creating letter writing parties, and national call-in days (including one this upcoming Thursday). If you live in Indiana, or you have sympathetic friends and relatives who do, please urge them to regularly write (not email) Senator Evan Bayh:
131 Russell Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510
1650 Market Tower
10 West Market Street
Indianapolis, IN 46204
Furthermore, please consider calling his office at least once a week, including this Thursday (a statewide call-in day). You can call his office by dialing (202) 224-5623 (DC Office) or (317) 554-0750 (Indianapolis). You can also call both Lugar and Bayh's office at once through Repower America's number: 877-9-Repower (note: this number works for any state's Senators. Just enter your zip code). Using the 877-9-Repower number will also allow the grassroots organizations to track how many people are calling, and get that number out to the press.
Finally, grassroots campaign only works with the help of volunteers. If you are passionate about passing clean energy, a variety of campaigns on the ground need your help! If you are in Indiana, please contact me and I can find a field organizer in your area. If you are not in Indiana, Repower America is one of just many organizations that are organizing on the ground. You can sign up to volunteer here.