MA-Sen: Globe/UNH Poll Paints Rosier Picture

Cause for optimism?

UNH (for Boston Globe). 1/2-1/6. Likely voters. MoE 4.2%.

Martha Coakley (D) 53
Scott Brown (R) 36
Undecided/Other 11

That looks nice, but as DavidNYC says at Swing State Project:

I'm not going to cherrypick - I don't like UNH when they've got bad news for Dems, so I'm not going to relax just because this survey happens to show good news for Dems.

UNH's record in New Hampshire (or, as Dean Barker and Elwood call the place UNH routinely polls, Cloud Hampshire) provides plenty of reasons not to like them.

In this case, there's also an important timing issue. PPP points out via Twitter that this UNH/Globe poll was started five days before the PPP poll showing Brown up by a point. If the situation is changing quickly, which it may be, the more recent poll should be weighed more heavily.

What this poll definitely shows is something we already knew: Coakley has major advantages and should be able to win, given the composition of the Massachusetts electorate. It's all about the mobilization.

Also check out Frederick Clarkson's excellent diary on the race, and see the events calendar he highlights.