The two biggest (and most dispiriting, if you are a Democrat) political stories were already on the front page earlier today.
Nevertheless, there are plenty of more electoral fish to fry, so let's take a look in this Monday edition of the Wrap....
IL-Sen: Dueling Polls Paint Contrasting Primary Picture
Is establishment Republican Senate candidate Mark Kirk in any danger of being upset? It apparently depends on who is asking the questions. According to two media sources (PPP and the Chicago Tribune), Kirk has an enormous lead over teabagger insurgent candidate Patrick Hughes. PPP has Kirk staked to a 33-point lead (42-9), while the Trib has it even more lopsided (47-8). If you asked Hughes' own pollsters, however, the gap is twenty points and closing (42-22).
Meanwhile, the Trib and PPP's polls on the Democratic side are reasonably similar, with state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias leading, with Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman close to one another about a dozen points in arrears. The Trib puts Jackson in second (34-19-16), while PPP puts Hoffman in second (32-20-18). In both cases, nearly one-third of primary voters remain undecided. This means that the final outcome is still very much an open question.
IN-Sen: Bayh Could Be Bayh-Bayh, According to New Rasmussen Poll
New numbers out of the Hoosier State blow a wide hole in the theory that "centrism" is the path to electoral resurrection for Democrats. Evan Bayh, who is the very model of Democratic centrism, is in dire straits, according to a new poll from Rasmussen. Against Republican Mike Pence, who is eyeing leaving the House to make a Senate bid, Bayh trails by three (47-44). Against likely GOP candidate John Hostettler, who got thumped by over twenty points in losing his House seat in 2006, Bayh only leads by three points (44-41). Against relatively unknown state legislator Marlin Stutzman, the Bayh lead is twelve points (45-33). This is particularly troubling, given the relative ease with which Bayh won both his initial Senate bid in 1998, and his first re-election bid in 2004.
AZ-Gov: Dem Goddard In the Race, According to Rasmussen
Depending on the Republican nominee, likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry Goddard (the state Attorney General) could be in the mix in November in the Grand Canyon State, according to Rasmussen. If incumbent GOP Governor Jan Brewer hangs onto the Republican nomination, Goddard wins by two points (43-41). However, if state treasurer Dean Martin is able to seize the nomination from the incumbent, he holds a nine-point edge over Goddard (44-35), according to Ras.
OH-Gov: U. of Cincinnati Poll Confirms Kasich Lead
One of the tough things about reporting Rasmussen's polls is that while they are far more bullish on the GOP than earlier polls, they are so darned prolific that it is hard to find contemporaneous polls. We have one in Ohio, however, that basically confirms Ras' result from ten days ago. While the new poll does have the race ever so slightly closer than Rasmussen, the lead for Republican John Kasich over Democratic Governor Ted Strickland is pretty similar (51-45). If there is one reason to raise eyebrows with this poll, it is a relatively small number of undecideds, given how early this poll is being conducted. However, Strickland and Kasich are both pretty well known, so that may well be believable.
OREGON: Populist Ballot Measures Down To The Wire, Says New Poll
Earlier in the evening here at DK, Meteor Blades introduced readers to a pair of ballot measures on the ballot in Oregon tomorrow which seek to raise taxes on the wealthy and businesses to help bridge the gap of what could be a dramatic budget shortfall in the state. A new poll was released over the weekend by local pollsters Hibbits and Associates which shows that both measures are extremely tight as ballots begin to fly through the mail. Measure 66, which would raise taxes on the wealthiest Oregonians, leads by a 50-44 margin. That is roughly half the margin of the previous poll. Meanwhile, Measure 67, which would raise the tax on businesses, is in even more tense territory, leading by just a 48-45 edge.
IN OTHER NEWS.....
- DE-Sen: On a day where three prominent Democrats (Beau Biden, Ted Kauffman, and Marc Denn) made clear that they were not interested in Senate bids, Democrats might have one last first-tier candidate willing to take the plunge. His name is Chris Coons, and he is the county executive in Wilmington's New Castle County. When DK and Research 2000 polled this race in late 2009, Coons ran respectably against likely GOP nominee Mike Castle, trailing the Republican frontrunner by just twelve points (51-39). Coons says that he is "seriously considering" making a bid.
- NV-Gov: Even though he is no longer nominally a Democrat, Democrats received a blow today with the news that Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman will not seek the office of Governor of Nevada. The Democratic field has now been sufficiently narrowed that it seems like a near-certainty that Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid will be the default Democratic nominee. Reid's best shot at victory, and it is a remote one, is deeply flawed incumbent GOP Governor Jim Gibbons somehow hanging onto the GOP nomination. In all likelihood, though, former federal judge Brian Sandoval will be the GOP nominee, and polls show him well ahead of Rory Reid.
- MI-Gov: About two weeks after presumptive frontrunner John Cherry stepped aside in his bid to be the Democratic nominee for Governor, another potentially bankable Democrat is eyeing the race. Bob Bowman is a former Michigan state treasurer who currently works for Major League Baseball, and he is apparently being urged to run by former Democratic Governor Jim Blanchard. Bowman was something of a "boy wonder" in Michigan politics back in the day, having served as the state's treasurer while he was still in his 20s (he is now 54 years of age).
- TX-Gov: Ruh-roh! In one of those headlines you just don't want to see about your campaign a month out from a competitive race, Texas Governor Rick Perry is having to deal with a report from the Dallas Morning News that his GOTV program, which pays people to work to turn out the vote for Perry, has employed several people with very sketchy criminal backgrounds. On top of the criminal associations (including at least one part-time Perry worker that has a felony in her past), there is also the issue of how strong a GOTV effort based on mercenary work is going to be. To date, Perry has spent over three hundred thousand dollars on part-time labor, which would include this GOTV program.
- AL-Sen: Here is some good news and some bad news for the Democrats in ruby-red Alabama. The good news is that they finally have a confirmed candidate to take on longtime Republican Senator Richard Shelby. The bad news is that the candidate, attorney William Barnes, is going into the race essentially admitting that he will lack the resources to be competitive with the incumbent. In fairness to Barnes, it would be exceedingly difficult to match resources with Shelby, who is sitting on an eight-figure war chest.
- THE MONEY CHASE: As we head toward the FEC filing deadline at the end of this month, we get a few more fundraising reports that tell us a little bit about the competitiveness of the playing field for 2010. While a lot of folks are not terribly confident about Democratic prospects in the Florida Senate race, one has to give Democrat Kendrick Meek a lot of credit. His fundraising has been formidable, and continued to be so in the 4th quarter, where he raised $ 1.2 million. The South Florida Congressman is also sitting on $ 3.3 million in cash on hand. Meanwhile, staying in South Florida, here is a number that should alarm Democrats: Republican Allen West (FL-22), who lost 55-45 in 2008 despite being thumped in fundraising, is more than holding his own this time around. He is claiming a haul of $670K for the quarter. In other solemn news for Democrats, either of the leading Republicans running for the U.S. Senate in Ohio swamped Democrat Lee Fisher for the 4th quarter (Democrat Jennifer Brunner, who has struggled in the campaign cash game, has not revealed her numbers yet). Underdog Tom Ganley actually had the better quarter, raising a million-and-a-half for the three month period. Former Congressman Rob Portman was just behind, notching $ 1.4 million for the quarter. Fisher raised just under $ 800,000 for the quarter.