Twice betrayed three times wise should be the watchword for Democratic officeholders who wish for an accomplishment which would reverse the momentum toward catastrophe in 2010. It's not about who is suddenly voting for Republicans. It is about who is disgusted with Democratic promise-breaking and staying home.
Obama's DOJ just covered up even more for Bush administration torture, giving Judge John Bybee and torture lawyer John Yoo a pass. The Holder report expected to be released this week calls writing a fig leaf to justify torture "bad judgment", but not a violation of professional ethics.
When a base which sees no net effect but more of the same, and worse, by voting, is combined with independents who vote based on right-wing propoganda, what you get is Scott Brown.
Voters handed Democrats a majority in 2006 for one reason only: They were sick of the Iraq War. What they got was a Democratic Congress which cheerfully handed Bush his troop surge. In 2008 the same voters went big for Obama, who conceded he might need another 10,000 troops in Afghanistan for a while, but said nothing about tripling our troop presence and 10 to 15 more years. It doesn't matter who we vote for, they just won't stop killing little brown babies with cluster bombs.
The Republican leadership is reading this as a sign that the country has moved to the right, but they don't get it either. They are having their own problems with their base, in the form of the so-called tea baggers who they are trying to co-opt but do not understand. Many of the Tea Party Republican primary candidates are against nation-building and foreign interventions, and sound like Dwight Eisenhower ranting about the military-industrial complex. Tea Party candidate Eric Forcade in Florida writes on his issues page "The Wars In Iraq And Afghanistan: No More Nation Building Or Acting As The World Police"
Over 5,000 brave American men and women have made the ultimate sacrifice in our two wars. This does not include the thousands that have suffered life altering and debilitating injuries during the conflict. While the losses to the families of these warriors are immeasurable, the cost on our economy is nearly as profound. The price tag for Iraq and Afghanistan is reaching nearly $1 TRILLION...We do not have a military so we can conduct international policing actions or nation building.
Whoever wins in 2010 will be the ones who read the tea leaves correctly, both regarding the people who voted for Scott Brown and the people who stayed home, which, in a 2 to 1 Democratic state with only 21 Republican state legislators, determined the election. On FISA immunity, covering up for Bush crimes, the wars, and now the Afghan surge, the Democrats are reaping what they have sown. In politics, keeping promises is rewarded. Betraying the base is a hazardous occupation, as Republican voters showed Bush senior in 1992 after he broke his no new taxes pledge. They sure as heck didn't vote for Clinton. They just stayed home.
In politics, you've got to do something right to offset the things you do wrong, and give the broad base one reason, just one, to go to the polls. Besides that the other guy is even uglier than you are. By ending unpopular wars, by denying war funding, the Democrats could have one thing to show which just might save their majority.