The news that former Tennessee Congressman and DLC mouthpiece Harold Ford is considering a primary challenge to New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand brings with it the inevitable cries of "carpetbagging." Ford's defenders will undoubtedly counter these charges by reminding us that just 10 years ago, Hillary Clinton relocated to New York to run for the very seat now held by Gillibrand. But is Hillary really the closest analogy for what Ford is attempting to pull off?
Below are biographical sketches of two unnamed politicians, followed by a sketch of Ford. Read all three, and decide which of the first two Ford most closely resembles:
Politician A
- At time of run for Senate seat in new state, nationally-known wife of popular two-term president.
- Moved to her new state from the White House.
- Never held elected office in any other state prior to running for Senate in her new state.
- Senate seat in new state for which she ran was open; her party's primary was clear.
- Sympathetic figure beloved by her party's base.
- Won her race.
Politician B
- At time of run for Senate seat in new state, politician of limited national prominence who had recently lost Senate bid in his home state.
- Moved to his new state in defeat.
- Notably held elected office in another state just a few years prior to running for Senate in his new state. Also had earned minor national notoriety for a previous disastrous bid for higher office (President).
- Senate seat in new state for which he ran was open, but his party's primary was contested, and contained at least one far better positioned candidate with serious institutional backing including that of the President of the United States.
- Not exactly beloved by his party's base; at one point, briefly left the party.
- Withdrew from Senate race prior to the primary.
Harold Ford
- At time of run for Senate seat in new state, politician of limited national prominence who had recently lost Senate bid in his home state.
- Moved to his new state in defeat.
- Notably held elected office in another state just a few years prior to running for Senate in his new state. Also had earned minor national notoriety for a previous disastrous bid for higher office (House Minority Leader).
- Senate seat in new state for which he wants to run is held by a member of his party with serious institutional backing, including that of the President of the United States.
- Not beloved by his party's base; heads organization at odds with bulk of the party.
When I look at the comparison, the answer is clear. Harold Ford's run against Gillibrand looks a lot more like Candidate B's campaign than Candidate A's. So who is Candidate B, anyway?
Why, ex-Senator Bob Smith, of course! Remember the New Hampshire Senator who ran an ignominious 2000 Presidential campaign, subsequently lost his Senate seat in a primary to John Sununu, and then moved to Florida to run for Bob Graham's old Senate seat -- only to withdraw from that race in even greater ignominy? The guy who's allegedly running against Crist and Rubio right now, but who doesn't even register in polls? Yeah, that guy. Not someone I'd like to pattern my career after, but right now, Ford looks a lot more like Bob Smith than he does like Hillary Clinton.