Hey guys, good Friday night to you.
I wanted to share something that hit me today with all of you.
Today, I noticed an aspect of the 2010 cycle that has a very strong similarity to the 2008 election: hesitation on the part of the Democratic party at very odd moments.
I remember sitting around during July and August 2008 and thinking, what is Obama playing at? This is the most plain vanilla campaign possible. He was dawdling on his VP choice, McCain was really starting to hit his stride with the "celebrity" attack, and we were all starting to wonder if Obama really knew what he was doing. Why wasn't he on offense? Why wasn't he attacking?! This is the election in which we were going to avenge the Bush years, after all. This was our time. Why is he spoiling it?
Of course, we know how it turned out, Palin and all. We found out that President Obama can run a heck of a campaign and win an unprecedented number of independents and moderate Republicans, which he did.
Now let's rewind even further back, to 2004. Who is the constituency that is most dramatically moved by State Sen. Obama's speech to the hall in Boston? Independents. True independents, like the ones who don't typically really pay attention until its right before the election. The people swayed by frames and catchphrases.
He summarily built them into a historic coalition that voted for him in the largest numbers since Reagan.
But here we are again. The economy sucks, not getting better fast, many key agenda items in flux or jeopardy, and the GOP is starting to believe that they are back in the game. And Obama, again, is doing practically nothing but trying to get through the day, from a driving-the-message standpoint. He sorta screws the left on health care (although they should have been smart enough to see it coming, IMHO). He might yet screw us again on energy and financial reform.
Remember what the biggest knock on President Obama was in the primaries?
He's a lightweight. He's inexperienced. In other words, he can't take it. He doesn't have balls like Hillary/John McCain does. And yet, out of nowhere, he strikes. And he/his allies wins/win. And everyone is stunned.
Like it or not, when your party is in power, the President and his top advisers jointly control the party's message. This was true under Clinton, Bush, and many others. I mention this because it is key to my argument.
And here is the main difference between the Dems of today and the DLC Dems of yesteryear: They are not "caving" merely because they are "weak" and "centrist". They are, debateably, both of those things, largely because of the wide variety of Democrats out there.
They are caving because they are waiting.
What many people call Obama's "11 dimensional chess" is actually quite simple: it is the concentration upon one or several key objectives over a fairly long period of time that are not obvious at any given point. It's not that pursuing those objectives are necessarily so inaccessible to the average person or difficult to comprehend, it's that he and his team place a lot of weight on them and only pursue them when there is a very clear and unobstructed path towards them.
See "lipstick on a pig", or all the business with Rush Limbaugh right after the inauguration, or a hundred other things.
This team waits. And waits. And waits. Until you're going crazy. Because they wait until they absolutely have to.
As such, I predict that the real campaign for 2010 will not really begin until at least this summer. This may seem obvious to many, but it will be seen in a surprising way: the actual dynamics of the race will shift.
Right now, are the Republicans and their allies fired up? Of course. Parties that literally have no power usually are. And do parties in power usually lose seats? Yes, and often enough to not necessitate really fighting it until later on.
The fact is, the GOP message is clear: the Democrats are trying to change too much too soon. They are bankrupting the country and taxing you to death, plus they can't keep us safe.
They can't walk away from it now. That is their message.
But I draw your attention now to our own Daily Kos poll analysis for more:
Independents, as they have been all along, are still watching and waiting. In every poll of this Congressional preference test taken since the question began being asked in May, a majority of Independent voters consider themselves undecided. Ordinarily, Democrats could take comfort in the fact that 67% of Independents have unfavorable views of the GOP. The aggravating factor is that 61% of Independents also hold unfavorable views of the Democrats. And, as Tom Jensen at PPP has noted on more than one occasion, those voters who have contempt for both parties are considerably more likely to vote for the party out of power.
Which means that Democrats have an interesting needle to thread. They need to do enough for their base to ensure that those folks will shake off their relative indifference towards the 2010 elections, but they also have to drive up their favorabilities with Independent voters.
This may appear difficult, but I argue that there are many feasible messages that Dems can adopt to do just this.And remember, these Independents are the ones that are really not at a decision yet, despite their unfavorable views. Clearly, something is holding them back from pulling the lever for the GOP. I would argue it's their like of Obama and their hope that he can get something done. These are the people, I bet, that Obama and his team are keeping the closest eye on. After all, they are the people that have won him every major national election thus far, from the 2008 primaries to the general.
And also remember, the Dems are not pushing a message right now almost at all. They are legislating, not campaigning. Things will look very different when the party is engaged in direct messaging to the base. See the renomination of Dawn Johnsen for what I'm talking about.
Couple that with the fact that the RNC has only $8 million and the NRCC literally has $2.5M net of debt to actually fight this election. The fact that the DSCC and DNC have been fundraising quite effectively and the DCCC has 5-6X the cash on hand of the NRCC strongly suggests that this election cycle will look very different than it does now.
Of course, the media and nervous political nellies like a lot of tuned-in Democrats are right now look at the toplines and think the end is nigh. They argue
- The economy is terrible and could stay terrible.
- The GOP is motivated and ready to go.
- Congress will not give Obama what he wants (easily).
All of these things are true. I won't deny it. But my advice is this: look at the structural factors.
- GOP has little money, Dems have a lot.
- Lots of undecided independents
- Lots of Democrats practically salivating/waiting for a progressive message to get engaged.
These signs point strongly towards a highly estimable Democratic turnout and a non-disastrous performance at the polls in 2010.