I'm still pumped up for 2010. But because we've dealt with a lot of bad news and disappointments it would be nice to look ahead for a moment and keep a longer-term view.
The prospect of making strong gains against Republicans in '12 takes a significant blow--of the three senate cycles, a plurality of the GOP's senate seats come from the 2004-2010 group. We'll wait another 6 years to get a shot at Republicans in OH, PA, NH and other blue states if we fail this time.
Because 2006's bench is the heaviest Democratic of the three, there's not a lot of Republican seats in play in 2012. This is a relative problem: it would be a fair statement that the GOP can gain as many as 9 seats this year, and if they have a really good year add a California or Washington to that list. What's more, the middle of the country is full of Republicans running for re-election this year. In 2012, not so much.
Prospects:
AZ. John Kyl may not be the likeliest prospect (I remember being naively hopeful for his 2006-opponent, Mr. Pederson, to no avail) but because of increasing ethnic tensions, an aging white population and youth vote, this could be made competitive with early investment and a serious Democratic candidate.
CT. Joe Lieberman. 'Nuff said?
IN. In 2012, Dick Lugar will be 80, and the 4th oldest currently-serving senator. Want to take a bet that he will retire? The tea party frenzy to elect a pure dingbat will likely push moderates and tolerant Republicans towards a Democrat.
ME. The Snowe Queen: as Markos and many have discussed, the same Tea Party forces that came for Mike Castle, Bob Bennett, ad nauseum. will have sights on the impure Olympia Snowe. She will most likely face a Murkowskian or Specterian dilemna, causing the more dangerous Republican to waste much time and money fighting her own faction. Fiscally conservative, socially liberal Maine is our's.
NV. John Ensign is as terminally stupid as he is critically injured by an ever-spiraling scandal involving sex and his parents money. Demographic argument: relatively strong unions, large latino population, young voters.
TN. In 2006, Bob Corker won by only 3% over Harold Ford, at 51-48%. Problem: In 2012, Corker will be an incumbent and research seems to indicate that each term of incumbency lends to re-election that much more.
TX. Like AZ and NV, Texas has a very strong latino population. Quiet, demographic shifts are underfoot in the lone-star. This may be a cycle too early for Texas' transition to being a swing state is complete, but electoral shifts occur shockingly fast. It really depends on the candidate, the money and the grassroots.
If I were to rank these seats (and I've already disregarded what look like obvious long-shots at this stage like Wyoming) it would really only be AZ, CT, NV and ME for pickups. But these would be very rewarding pickups because highly progressive candidates can be elected in the Northeast. But the others certainly could come into play.
Liabilities:
CA. Dianne Feinstein, who will be the 5th oldest senator, will turn 79 in 2 years. It's not unlikely that she may want to retire. What's more, she is the most centrist of the 6 Democrats representing the West coast in the senate. This seat would be ripe for a progressive insurgency, but also for some astro-turfed candidate slicked by the Koch oil machine.
HI. Both of Hawaii's senators were born only 4 days apart in 1924. Daniel Akaka would be a shoe-in for re-election, but at age 86 his odds of living just another 2 years probably don't look so hot.
MO. As one of my favorite senators, I hate to mention Claire McCaskill, but she only won MO by 3 percentage points in 2006, her poll numbers look gloomy, and Barack Obama lost the state (barely) in the 2008 Democratic peak.
MT. Jon Tester also won in a nail-biter, but unless the GOP is having a strong year and recruits a great candidate, I don't see an upset here. Tester has a record he can clearly show to constituents does not smell of "rubber stamping" the Obama agenda.
VA. Jim Webb is not beloved by progressives, and VA is a very competitive state. That said, the continued expansion and urbanization of the Arlington-Fairfax area and the suburbanization further south should give him hope. The long-term demographics of Virginia shine blue.
Other than Missouri these seats seem more prone to the Democratic Party's knack for self-immolation and neglect than an actual rout by a Republican.
Off the radar, for now:
Dem: Washington, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico, Ohio, New York, Massachusetts, (Kerry may retire or become SoS, saith the DC rumors.) Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, Florida.
Rep: Wyoming, Utah, Mississippi.
As you can see, there just are way fewer Republican-held seats up in the 2012 cycle. If I made a guess now, I'd expect Democrats to hold all their seats--due to favorable geography and demographics--and capture four additionally.