With the notable exception of California, Democrats are getting good polling news in virtually every competitive Senate campaign. One result of this is that the Senate Snapshot now projects 53 Democratic seats as the most likely outcome if the 2010 elections were completed today.
Senate Competitive Campaigns Chart
Margins are based on the simple average of all published polls in which the majority of interviews were conducted on or after October 8th. No polls will be removed form the averages between now and Election Day. Only campaigns closer than 12.0% are listed. All polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com. Click here for the Senate Snapshot methodology.
Seat Outcome Odds Chart
Even though Democrats only lead in enough campaigns to reach 52 seats, the comparatively narrow Republican leads in Nevada, Kentucky, Pennsylvania and Colorado make 53 Democratic seats the most likely outcome. Also, polling averages are independent variables, even if campaigns aren't.
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Even though it has yet to be reflected in House polling, Democrats are definitely improving in the Senate battlegrounds. In addition to Illinois, where Democratic chances appear to be improving quite dramatically, the biggest movement over the past few days has come at the expense of a trio of right-wing primary favorites: Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Ken Buck in Colorado, and Rand Paul in Kentucky.
All three have, at some point, engaged in high-profile primaries against “establishment” Republicans. All three could boast mid- to high-single-digit advantages until recently, but now lead by 2% or less. So, the tea party didn’t just hand us the Senate seat in Delaware, and keep Harry Reid alive in Nevada. They are screwing up practically the entire Senate battleground for Republicans. Too bad Chuck DeVore didn’t win in California.
How awesome would it be for Democrats to pull off 54, 55 or even 56 Senate seats, because the tea party overplayed the Republican hand? With new polls today showing both Joe Sestak and Jack Conway ahead, that could really happen.
Please, toss in another $10 to Orange to Blue candidates. Let’s keep riding our own enthusiasm wave.