So the Washington Post has a link in their afternoon email entitled "Young Voters bored by 2010". I figure, let's click the link.
When I start to read the article, I begin to recognize the numbers just don't support the conclusion (put on your surprised face).
More over the fold.
This article is a prime example of how the headline and "narrative" don't jive with the facts presented in the article:
Let's start with this ...paragraph: "[F]ifty-seven percent of the 18-to-29-year-olds surveyed in Institute of Politics poll said they voted in the 2008 general election, either at a polling place or by absentee ballot."
So the high water mark was 57% of 18-29 year olds voting in 2008. (Everyone pretty much agrees that 2008 was a high water mark for young voters.)
Then you have this sentence: "A Pew Research Center study shows that only 45 percent of registered voters aged 18 to 29 say they "definitely will vote" this November."
From 57% down to 45% who will definitely vote? You get 20% of the other 55%, and you're at the 2008 levels. Of course, it's apples to oranges anyway, since the 57% is all 18-29 year olds and the 45% is registered, so this WOULD be really bad.
Next paragraph: "Another survey released today by Harvard University's Institute of Politics puts the number much lower -- only 27 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds surveyed said they definitely will be voting in the midterms. Sixteen percent said they probably will be voting, 21 percent said their chances are 50/50, and 36 percent said they either definitely or probably won't be voting."
So let's assign probabilities: 27% * 100% + 16% * 75% + 21% * 50% + 36% * 10% = 53%. And when you open up the frakkin survey, they're commenting on ALL 18-29 year olds, not ONLY registered voters. 28% of that total aren't even REGISTERED! So of the 36% that either definitely or won't vote, most of them aren't registered. Pull them out of the denominator, and you get more than 65% of REGISTERED 18-29 year olds who will vote, which is a much higher number than Pew. The Harvard study is actually MORE positive than the Pew study, and shows roughly the same turnout of all 18-29 year olds (4% lower) than in 2008.
The media is driving the narrative and ignoring the facts right in their face. It's really why I don't read anything but dailykos