A couple of days ago an ABC/Post poll revealed that support for Sarah Palin stood at only 39%. The general thrust of ABC's analyst, Gary Langer, was that support for her presidential candidacy is lacking. That may very well be the case ultimately, but here is my question: Does that make her candidacy and/or eventual nomination unlikely?
Not at all. What's truly amazing/disturbing is this: despite results that show an almost even split on the question of her qualification within conservative Republican and Tea-party ranks (according to this poll only 10% of the electorate taken together), "support" for her runs in the 37-39% range. Is it a coincidence that almost precisely the same percentage of the electorate identifies themselves as core Republican voters? Unlikely, in my opinion, given her astronomically high negatives with Dems and "Independents."
The upshot: If the Republican voter base, dominated by Evangelical conservatives and Tea-Party types, has a choice between "Blue State Republicans" like Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty, neither of whom are Protestatnt evangelical Christians, and Palin, I think the results are pretty predictable. Sarah Palin would be the nominee. In fact, she would walk away with it easily. And given the current polarization, we shouldn't think that the Palin doubters within the GOP would not rally to her side in the general election. They almost certainly would. Likewise with those "Independents" who are now willing to support tea-party candidates in states that Obama won in 2008, e.g. NV, NH, and CO.
Mike Huckabee, who has his own electability baggage, remains the only GOP leadership figure who has a realistic chance of derailing Sarah Palin's aspirations to GOP nomination, only one step away from the Presidency.