The latest Pew Poll has Republicans six points ahead in the likely vote. The
Democrats are ahead in the registered vote.
Pew pollster Andrew Kohut says there have been no
significant shifts in the outlook in weeks.
But in the previous three rounds, Democrats were three points ahead, then one, then four points behind,
and now one point ahead in the registered tally. What has remained consistent is the six to seven point deficit
perceived in Democrats' engagement.
Pew uses a seven question scale to determine the likely voter sample. This filter excludes anyone who is voting despite disappointment and a wholly rational disengagement from the details of the ups and downs of the campaign.
It might have excluded me!
People have raised questions about the use of likely voter models for years and yet the pollsters stick with them and use them far too early.
I see many polls converging to a 2 point likely voter deficit and we can beat that. We do it with GOTV, which is the enemy of the likely voter model syndrome!