With 99.99% of precincts counted, the Brazilian Presidential Election will require a second round, to be held on October 31. The results currently stand as:
Dilma Rousseff (PT) = 46.9%
José Serra (PSDB) = 32.6%
Marina Silva (PV) = 19.3%
Turnout was 111 million voters, or just under 82%.
Polling early in September showed a very large lead for PT candidate Dilma Rousseff, President Lula's hand-picked successor. As the final month of the campaign wore on, this lead slowly narrowed, with most polling on the eve of the election putting her vote total right around 50%.
The biggest surprise of the night was Marina Silva. The ex-PT Green Party candidate received nearly 20% of the vote, much higher than her pre-election polling numbers.
UPDATE: Cool interactive site with results by state and city: http://placar.eleicoes.uol.com.br/...
More analysis below the fold.
Just three weeks ago, many in the Workers' Party had already begun to celebrate. The polls showed candidate Dilma Rousseff with an advantage over PSDB rival José Serra of between 25% and 35%, cruising to a win in the first round with between 55% and 60% of the vote.
Since that time, Dilma's lead began to slowly erode away, first with the revelation of a potential scandal involving the son of Erenice Guerra, former aide to Dilma and her successor as Lula's Chief of Staff. Although little has been proven yet in this case (in fact, several accusations have been disproven), and nothing whatsoever linked anything to Dilma herself, the repetition of "scandal" and "Dilma aide" over and over during the evening newscasts served to halt her rise in the polls.
The news of this potential scandal gave new life to Serra's moribund campaign, and he soon went on the attack. Unfortunately for him, his numbers improved little. A few percentage points lost from Dilma's total were mostly moved to the undecided column or to Green Party candidate Marina Silva.
Marina was able to press this advantage in the debates, coming across as the sharpest of the three main candidates and the only one with noticeable charisma. (The Dilma/Serra second-round debates will most likely be insomnia cures.) This, along with a "stealth" movement organized by the growing evangelical churches in Brazil, brought more and more people to Marina's side. The crux of this movement was a statement made by Dilma regarding abortion, where she claimed to be against it personally but that it was also an issue of "public health." This whipped up a frenzy among evangelicals that Dilma would "legalize abortion." (Abortion is illegal except in cases of rape, incest, and when the mother's life is threatened.) Although Dilma and Lula moved quickly to deny the rumours, a few more voters shifted from Dilma to Marina.
In the final totals, Marina outperformed the polls almost everywhere, coming in first in the Distrito Federal with 42% of the vote, and second in Rio de Janeiro, with 32% of the vote. These two states are typically PT strongholds, so this showing by the Green Party took votes directly away from Dilma. Dilma's best showing was in the northeast, taking 70% in Maranhão and 66% in Ceará. Serra, despite earning a spot in the second round, did not do particularly well in any state. In São Paulo, his home state, he won by just a plurality: 41%-37%. By way of comparison, Lula lost São Paulo in the first round in 2006 by a margin of 54%-37%.
Looking ahead to the second round, it is clear that Dilma has the simpler task. She will need to improve her debate performances and begin the job of wooing Marina voters (in some cases, wooing them back). Serra's campaign, despite the smiles and celebrations, is going to have a difficult time running the table. They have to capture almost all of the third party vote (17.4% of Marina's 19.3%). Nothing is impossible in the wild world of Brazilian politics, but the PT is still holding the better hand at this point. The next set of opinion polls should be very interesting.
For the sake of comparison, Lula won 46.4% and 48.1% in the first round in 2002 and 2006, respectively. In the second round, he went on to crush José Serra ('02) and Geraldo Alckmin ('06) by margins of 61%-39%.
The next diaries will look at the results of the races for Congress and the governorships. Briefly:
Governor: 18 of 27 races were decided in the first round. In terms of partisan makeup, there was very little change. PT (and allies) won where they are strong and PSDB (and allies) won where they are strong. The other 9 races will go to the second round.
Senate: Here, the PT (and allies) cleaned up bigtime. Of 54 seats in dispute, 43 were won by allies of the governing coalition. The Senate was always the lone thorn in Lula's side, and most of his ardent opponents have been swept away en masse. The rightwing Democrats were completely crushed.
Chamber of Deputies: PT did not win as many seats here as they had hoped, but they did make some gains. The Democrats, as in the Senate, lost big. Many smaller left-wing coalition parties made significant gains, as did the centrist PR.