All 27 state governorships were at stake in the 2010 General Elections. In a series of pre-election diaries, I looked at each of these races individually and the polling then current for each. For detailed information on these races, please see this earlier diary series entitled: "Brazilian Election Guide."
Of the 27 races, 18 were decided in the first round, a record. Analysts point to increased polarization as the cause. Whereas in the past, as many as five or six viable candidates might be competing, this year there was a tendency for political parties to form broad "governing" and "opposition" coalitions, reducing the number of viable candidates and upping the chances of a first-round victory. It is precisely in the few states where three or four strong coalitions formed that a run-off will still be necessary.
Of the 18 states whose races were decided on Sunday, 11 elected governors favorable to President Lula and candidate Dilma Rousseff of the PT, while 7 elected governors favorable to candidate José Serra of the PSDB.
An interactive graphic showing the changes in governorships and Congress is here.
Results of each race below the fold.
The individual results of the races for governor are listed below, with the final pre-election poll numbers in parenthesis for comparison purposes. These numbers are all taken from the Ibope polling agency, not necessarily because I feel they are the most accurate, but because they are the most complete - they are the only agency I know of that consistently polls races in every state.
Boldface indicates first-round winners. Italics indicate candidates who will face off in the second round. indicates supporters of Lula and the PT (red is the traditional color of the left, after all), and indicates opponents of Lula (supporters of Serra and the PSDB).
THE SOUTHEAST
São Paulo
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) | 50.6% | (45) |
Aloízio Mercadante (PT) | 35.2% | (29) |
Celso Russomano (PP) | 5.4% | (7) |
Others | 8.8% | (7) |
Mercadante and the PT were hoping to keep Alckmin below 50% and force a run-off, but it was just not meant to be. São Paulo has been governed by the PSDB since 1994, and they will get at least another 4 years.
Minas Gerais
I-Antônio Anastasia (PSDB) | 62.7% | (46) |
Hélio Costa (PMDB) | 34.2% | (33) |
Others | 3.1% | (2) |
The incumbent Anastasia picked up almost all of the undecided vote and cruised to re-election, mostly coasting on the popularity of former governor and Senate candidate Aécio Neves. Brazil's second-most-populous state also remains PSDB.
Rio de Janeiro
I-Sérgio Cabral (PMDB) | 66.1% | (57) |
Fernando Gabeira (PV) | 20.7% | (20) |
Others | 13.2% | (7) |
Incumbent Sérgio Cabral also out-performed polls in the traditionally leftist state of Rio de Janeiro. The right-leaning parties PSDB and DEM did not even field a candidate, but instead united behind the Green Party.
Espírito Santo
Renato Casagrande (PSB) | 82.3% | (64) |
Luiz Paulo (PSDB) | 15.5% | (15) |
Others | 2.2% | (3) |
This one was always marked to be a blowout, but no one predicted by just how much. Socialist Renato Casagrande wins with the second largest vote percentage of the night, just a fraction behind that won by fellow PSB member Eduardo Campos in Pernambuco.
THE SOUTH
Rio Grande do Sul
Tarso Genro (PT) | 54.4% | (48) |
José Fogaça (PMDB) | 24.7% | (26) |
I-Yeda Crusius (PSDB) | 18.4% | (15) |
Others | 2.5% | (3) |
Another state that was predicted to possibly require a run-off. Tarso Genro pulled out the win, bringing Rio Grande do Sul back to its PT roots. Incumbent Yeda Crusius, deeply unpopular, finished a distant third.
Santa Catarina
Raimundo Colombo (DEM) | 52.7% | (41) |
Ângela Amin (PP) | 24.9% | (27) |
Ideli Salvatti (PT) | 21.9% | (16) |
Others | 0.5% | (3) |
This state was also expected to need a run-off, but Democrat Raimundo Colombo prevailed in a three-way split field. Santa Catarina is one of only two states to elect a Democrat as governor this year.
Paraná
Beto Richa (PSDB) | 52.4% | (45) |
Osmar Dias (PDT) | 45.6% | (45) |
Others | 2.0% | (2) |
This race was a dead-even tie in the final poll, but as in other states of the South and Southeast where the PSDB is traditionally strong, they were able to pull over enough undecideds to win the race.
THE NORTHEAST
Bahia
I-Jaques Wagner (PT) | 63.8% | (51) |
Paulo Souto (DEM) | 16.1% | (18) |
Geddel Lima (PMDB) | 15.6% | (12) |
Others | 4.5% | (2) |
Incumbent governor Jaques Wagner was expected to win, and he did it in style, doubling the vote of his two rivals combined! Bahia was once a stronghold of the rightwing Democrats, but they have been decimated in recent elections as Bahia has followed the rest of the northeast and shifted heavily in support of Lula and the PT.
Sergipe
I-Marcelo Deda (PT) | 52.1% | (47) |
João Alves (DEM) | 45.2% | (39) |
Others | 2.7% | (2) |
Marcelo Deda was also expected to easily win re-election, but in the final week of the campaign, rival and ex-governor João Alves begain surging in the polls. It was too-little, too-late for Alves, however, as he came up just 2 points short of forcing a run-off.
Alagoas
I-Teotônio Vilela (PSDB) | 39.6% | (34) |
Ronaldo Lessa (PDT) | 29.2% | (24) |
Fernando Collor de Mello (PTB) | 28.8% | (31) |
Others | 2.4% | (2) |
Alagoas provided one of the big surprises of the evening, with the surge of ex-governor Ronaldo Lessa and the collapse of ex-president Collor de Mello. A run-off was expected in this race, but not one with Collor on the outside looking in. It remains to be seen whether or not Lessa can consolidate enough of the split center-left vote to move ahead of Vilela in the run-off.
Pernambuco
I-Eduardo Campos (PSB) | 82.8% | (73) |
Jarbas Vasconcelos (PMDB) | 14.1% | (17) |
Others | 3.1% | (2) |
The biggest blowout of the night. Campos celebrated not only his unprecedented landslide victory, but (as president of the PSB) he saw his party make gains all around the country, establishing themselves as a significant national political force.
Paraíba
Ricardo Coutinho (PSB) | 49.7% | (42) |
I-José Maranhão (PMDB) | 49.3% | (47) |
Others | 1.0% | (2) |
One of the closest elections of the night, which will force a run-off between Maranhão and Coutinho. Although Coutinho ran as part of a mixed coalition between the leftist PSB and the right (PSDB and DEM), he personally is a supporter of Lula and the government. Perhaps the fact that this election had no true opposition candidate explains the "coin-flip" result.
Rio Grande do Norte
Rosalba Ciarlini (DEM) | 52.5% | (49) |
I-Iberê Ferreira (PSB) | 36.3% | (30) |
Carlos Eduardo (PDT) | 10.4% | (9) |
Others | 0.8% | (2) |
Rosalba Ciarlini held on to win in the first round, giving the rightwing Democrats their second of two wins, and the only win for the right in the northeast.
Ceará
I-Cid Gomes (PSB) | 61.3% | (55) |
Lucio Alcantara (PR) | 19.5% | (19) |
Marcos Cals (PSDB) | 16.4% | (11) |
Others | 2.8% | (2) |
No surprises here: Cid Gomes wins big in his re-election bid.
Piauí
I-Wilson Martins (PSB) | 46.4% | (39) |
Silvio Mendes (PSDB) | 30.1% | (25) |
João Vicente Claudino (PTB) | 21.5% | (27) |
Others | 2.0% | (2) |
Martins and Claudino split the center-left vote, forcing a run-off between incumbent Martins and Silvio Mendes. Most predictions are that Martins will win in the second round.
Maranhão
I-Roseana Sarney (PMDB) | 50.1% | (47) |
Flávio Dino (PCdoB) | 29.5% | (23) |
Jackson Lago (PDT) | 19.5% | (18) |
Others | 0.9% | (2) |
In a true nailbiter, Roseana Sarney squeaked by in the first round with just 50.08% of the vote. Polls of a potential second round showed her running almost dead even against Flávio Dino, indicating a strong "anti-Roseana" vote... but not strong enough.
THE CENTRAL-WEST
Distrito Federal (Brasília)
Agnelo Queiroz (PT) | 48.4% | (44) |
Weslian Roriz (PSC) | 31.5% | (-) |
Joaquim Roriz (PSC) | -% | (27) |
Antonio Carlos de Andrade (PSOL) | 14.3% | (11) |
Others | 5.8% | (3) |
Joaquim Roriz was to have all his votes from this election annulled because of the new Clean Slate Law. He appealed to the Supreme Court to declare it unconstitutional. When the Court deadlocked only a week before the election, he decided instead to remove his name from the ballot and substitute that of his wife, Weslian. After all of these shenanigans, Agnelo Queiroz expected to clear 50% easily, but in one of the night's big shockers, he will now have to face Weslian in a run-off.
Goiás
Marconi Perillo (PSDB) | 46.3% | (40) |
Iris Rezende (PMDB) | 36.4% | (35) |
Vanderlan Cardoso (PR) | 16.6% | (13) |
Others | 0.7% | (1) |
Another race that split between three coalitions. Goiás is favorable to the PSDB, so Perillo is considered to have the advantage in the run-off.
Mato Grosso
I-Silval Barbosa (PMDB) | 51.2% | (46) |
Mauro Mendes (PSB) | 31.9% | (24) |
Wilson Santos (PSDB) | 16.6% | (16) |
Others | 0.3% | (1) |
This race also split three ways, but incumbent Barbosa had enough support to get just over 50%.
Mato Grosso do Sul
I-André Puccinelli (PMDB) | 56.0% | (51) |
José "Zeca" dos Santos (PT) | 42.5% | (41) |
Others | 1.5% | (2) |
This race took some twists and turns over the past few weeks with accusations of corruption surfacing against both candidates. Although Puccinelli's party (PMDB) are officially allies of the PT on the national level, he himself is a member of the opposition and a supporter of Serra.
THE NORTH
Pará
Simão Jatene (PSDB) | 48.9% | (43) |
I-Ana Júlia Carepa (PT) | 36.1% | (30) |
Domingos Juvenil (PMDB) | 10.8% | (7) |
Others | 4.2% | (4) |
Ana Júlia's approval ratings are very low, and the chances are high that she will lose the run-off. She (like Serra at the national level) will need to pick up virtually all of the "third party" support in order to win.
Amapá
Luiz Barreto (PTB) | 28.9% | (29) |
Camilo Capiberibe (PSB) | 28.7% | (27) |
Jorge Amanajás (PSDB) | 28.2% | (22) |
I-Pedro Paulo (PP) | 13.5% | (12) |
Others | 0.7% | (1) |
Amapá presented the tightest three-way race of all, with only 0.7% separating the top three candidates. Incumbent Pedro Paulo, who was arrested less than a month ago in a corruption sting, finished a distant fourth. Capiberibe is officially supported by Lula and the PT, however Barreto's center-left coalition is also favorable to the government.
Tocantins
Siqueira Campos (PSDB) | 50.5% | (46) |
Carlos Gaguim (PMDB) | 49.5% | (42) |
Tocantins was the most polarized of all races, with only two candidates competing, guaranteeing a first-round winner except in the case of an exact tie. Campos managed to hold on by 1% and flip this state to the opposition.
Amazonas
I-Omar Aziz (PMN) | 63.9% | (58) |
Alfredo Nascimento (PR) | 25.9% | (31) |
Hissa Abrahão (PPS) | 9.4% | (6) |
Others | 0.8% | (1) |
The PT officially supported Nascimento and the PSDB was behind third-place finisher Abrahão. The national PMN bucked tradition and switched allegiance from the PT to the PSDB early this year, but Aziz himself is a supporter of Lula.
Acre
Tião Viana (PT) | 50.5% | (52) |
Tião Bocalom (PSDB) | 49.2% | (39) |
Others | 0.3% | (1) |
Viana held double-digit leads throughout the month leading up to the election, and was surprised by a large surge for Bocalom (and Serra) during the final week. This was the last result to be officially called, on Monday morning. When asked about the narrow margin of victory in what was expected to be a blowout, Viana commented that a win was a win.
Rondônia
Confucio Moura (PMDB) | 44.0% | (29) |
I-João Cahulla (PPS) | 37.1% | (28) |
Eduardo Valverde (PT) | 18.2% | (13) |
Others | 0.7% | (1) |
Expedito Junior (PSDB) | -% | (18) |
PSDB candidate Expedito Junior had his candidacy thrown into limbo by the Clean Slate Law, which has annulled all of his votes. PT candidate Eduardo Valverde finished third. Moura and Cahulla, the two remaining candidates, were running as part of mixed coalitions, though Moura is generally more favorable to Lula and Cahulla more favorable to Serra. The final ruling on the Clean Slate Law will not affect this race, because restoring Expedito Junior's votes would only give him a third-place finish.
Roraima
Neudo Campos (PP) | 47.6% | (40) |
I-Anchieta Júnior (PSDB) | 45.0% | (44) |
Others | 7.4% | (10) |
The incumbent Anchieta lead most polling by single digits, but Campos pulled ahead on election day. This race is a pure toss-up going into the run-off.
Next diary: A run-down of the Senate results.