While the exit of Rahm Emmanuel made Beltway insiders swoon on rumors of intrigue, President Obama has noticeably made numerous important changes to the White House Staff. There are, generally speaking, two ways to approach this: promote people on the inside, or bring in people from outside. In every case, the president has taken the former approach.
Rahm was replaced by long time adviser Pete Rouse. Budget Director Peter Orzag was replaced by Jack Lew. Larry Summers was replaced by Austin Goolsby, the economic adviser to the Obama campaign. Yesterday it was announced that National Security Advisor Jim Jones would be replaced by his deputy, Tom Donilon. On the political side, very little has changed. It is rumored that Senior Advisor David Axelrod will be returning to Chicago and Robert Gibbs may move to the DNC. The only addition to said staff was the appointment of Elizabeth Warren, one of relatively few people who came in from the outside. But even in that exception, it has been reported that Warren is a long-time friend of the president.
These moves seem to indicate the president has a great deal of confidence in the White House staff, operations, and direction. Obama started his term by appointing a staff largely consisting of Beltway insiders. This has a certain logic to it, I suppose, since the game of advancing major legislation through Congress is a game almost exclusively played by insiders, a sad but no less real state of affairs. Better to have people who know the game intimately than people who do not. Critics in the media and in the president's opposition will describe the staff moves as "rats jumping ship," but it is healthy and normal for a White House to experience turnover midway through the first term. It remains to be seen if a staff of Washington insiders is the best approach to begin what will likely be two years of pure politics and little legislative achievement.
Those hoping for a bit of a reboot of this presidency may find themselves largely disappointed if the most recent appointments are any indication. These moves indicate that any new policy initiatives coming from this White House over the remainder of the term will be largely like the first: a seeking of bipartisan consensus and "pass something" insider dealmaking. With a smaller majority to work with almost certain, it is likely that the White House will adopt even more "bipartisan" approaches than before as a necessary component of passing "something." Again, the "art of the possible" philosophy that guides this White House isn't going to change with the promotion of the same folks who play by it. Politically speaking, we have no idea what the White House has in store for the re-election effort except that the same people who have been managing the president's politics since 2007 are likely to run things in 2012.
So is this going to all work out? Time will tell, of course. The outlook for major energy legislation to spur a green economy is bleak. Employee Free Choice Act? Similarly bleak. The long promised increase in the minimum wage (and indexing it for inflation)? Well, if the president's recent delay of an increase in the minimum wage in the Northern Mariana Islands is any indication of policy, signs aren't hopeful. On immigration, the outlook may be a bit rosier, although I'd predict major concessions on the path to citizenship and expect a second-class citizen system of work permits to prevail. We are also likely to see a major battle on the budget deficit, no matter who wins in 2010.
On the major issue of the day, jobs, the White House is winging it. There are no plans, so far, for major legislation to deal directly with the problem. If there is one area where this White House needs some fresh outsider thinking, it is in the area of jobs. Goolsby said in September “I don’t think the unemployment rate will be coming down significantly at any time in the near future.” That may be one iceberg too many.
We can look forward to a lively presidential campaign season, certain to kick off early next year. While I don't think any of the current list of Republican possibles can beat the president, the next couple of years are not going to be a cakewalk if current trends continue. Before we go down that road, I'd say it would be a good idea to begin thinking how we, the politically informed, can better navigate these icy waters to keep what good we've done on track. We should also hope our opponents make the mistake too many have made over the last three years: underestimating Barack Obama.