Gallup's polls have been used by both the main stream media and our very own front page to predict doom and gloom for the Democrats tomorrow. The odd thing is that hardly anyone has been looking at the poll's internals, which - at best - show Gallup to be using an extremely flawed LV screen and - at worst - show Gallup to be downright cooking the books in order to set the narrative for what Karl Rove predicts will be an "apocalypse" for Democrats.
Well, I've had a look at Gallup's internals and I ain't buying their schtick.
Alan Abaramovitz, Politico, and Simon Rosenberg already tore apart Gallup's polling a couple of weeks ago because of their crazy results for minorities:
http://www.politico.com/...
Rosenberg even called for Gallup to "either rework their sample or cease reporting their 2010 election polling", concluding that "their current findings are clearly fatally flawed, and should be dismissed by any serious analyst of American politics."
http://ndn.org/...
Needless to say, Gallup did not heed that call. Instead, their recent poll, which has Republicans leading Dems by 15 points in the generic ballot, continues to show wacky internals and even was used by Kos in a FP diary today.
Here's a breakdown of some of the things that don't make sense in their internals:
Republicans supposedly are ahead of Dems by at least 8 points in every region of the U.S., including the East. (Prepare for N.Y.C and Philly to be in firm Republican control soon...)
Republicans are supposedly just as far ahead of the Dems in the west as in the south.... by a whopping 21 points. (Looks like they forgot to poll California, Washington, Oregon, etc.)
According to Gallup, minorities are only breaking for Dems by a 57 to 35 margin. (Looks like they forgot to include African Americans) Even John Kerry, who was not exactly a barn burner with minorities, managed to carry them with 70%.
According to Gallup, Dems lose in all educational backgrounds by 18 points or more except with postgrads, where they lead by only 1 point.
And last but not least, Gallup only has the Dems up by 4 points amongst 18 to 34 year olds. (I guess they missed the Jon Stewart Rally, or they'd know better...)
In conclusion, their latest poll is, once again, bunk. Gallup is basically trying to serve us up a turd sandwhich of statistical improbabilities and impossibilities.
The best thing we can do in responses is GOTV like crazy and make Gallup eat their own turd sandwhich. Maybe they'll invite Karl Rove and his four horsemen to join in.
If you're still not sure what GOTV is or if you need a refresher, please read this excellent tutorial diary by Muskegon Critic:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
GOTV! Good luck to all our quality candidates out there that are fighting the good fight!
And never forget that the only poll that matters is the poll on election day.