Well, I have been a staunch critic of anybody contemplating a primary challenge to Barack Obama and came to his defense on many policy issues. I would call myself a pragmatist, although spineless politicians can really drive me up the wall.
So I was quite skeptical of todays front page post by Cenk Uygur (theyoungturks) on the otherwise pretty degenerated PUMA blog mydd.com. He makes the point, that if Obama goes along with major parts of the chairmens recommendations of the presidents deficit commission, Obama should and will get a primary challenger.
My thought after the fold.
Cutting social security would be the new TARP. All Washington insiders will argue that its necessary, Democrats and some republicans will vote for it. But only one party will own it. The democrats. And they would pay for it. A 65 seats loss in the house sounds bad? Well, if you touch social security...
- I believe that if Obama accepts (and doesnt veto) more than one of the following proposals, he will be dead in the water and wont be the democratic nominee in 2012:
a. raising the retirement age to 69 (while one of the more reasonable proposals this is still very unfair to all working people in jobs, who might not even live that long or certainly wont be able to climb on skyscrapers, do construction work or plumbing or any other things that depends heavily on their physical constitution)
b. cut benefits for current retirees by 3-6% (republicans would call that a tax increase and its certainly the way people will feel about it)
c. cap Medicare (just look how successfully republicans campaigned on this theme in 2010)
d. adjusting Social Security payments to cost of living instead of wages ( would have the most dramatic effect in the long term. Might sound fair. Might not have an immediate electoral backlash. Would probably be the republicans choice if they had to own it, which they dont have to. Will probably lead to much reduced benefits, playing into the hands of republicans arguing for privatization)
e. cutting taxes for the rich by up to 12% (immediate electoral suicide. Democrats polling at 30-35% in the generic congressional ballot. So unfair, that base voters will primary out lots of incumbents)
f. eliminating the mortgage deductability (voters will openly revolt and have a psychiatrist look after Obama, whether he is kind of a Manchurian candidate with some implanted chip. Might shift that many voters away, that an independent candidate sneak through into the White House)
g. make the Bush tax cuts for the rich permanent (gets him 0.5% of republicans, looses him 5-10% of democrats)
- If he accepts "only" one of these proposals without raising the income limit for the social security tax he might be spared a serious primary challenge, but will loose badly in the GE.
- Who would be in a position to credibly challenge Obama in a primary?
a. Hillary Clinton (obviously, just as obvious that she wont do it)
b. Howard Dean (would likely loose, has declared that he won't do it)
c. Jim Webb (probably isnt interested, would rather write more books)
d. Evan Bayh (primarying Obama from the right, yeah that will work out just great ;-)
e. Russ Feingold (would probably loose)
f. Sherrod Brown (populist, swing state, progressive, very articulate, maybe too easy to paint as liberal)
g. Martin O'Malley (young looking, irish roots, sympathetic, experience as governor, pretty progressive)
h. Claire McCaskill (good speaker, a woman, swing state, too moderate to challenge Obama from the left?)
i. Brian Schweitzer (midwesterner, a real cowboy, unafraid to speak bluntly which is the exact opposite to Obama, experience as governor, twice elected in a red state, got things done with a republican legislature, brings his dog into the office, carries a gun but is for reasonable gun control, practices open government even after 9/11 = has balls, experience in the middle east, environmentally consciuous, arguing from a conservative point of view, libertarian in some respects = not socially conservative)
Guess who I think would make the best candidate? ;-)
Well, Obama certainly deserves a second chance at governing now. But if he doesnt get the right message, listens to the wrong advisers and f***s the middle class in the aforementioned ways, then he should and will get a credible primary opponent and might actually loose the nomination which - under those circumstances - might not be the worst outcome.
To all people who argue that a primary challenge to a sitting president would be electoral suicide: Don't confuse cause and effect here. Successful presidents dont get a serious primary challenge. Unsuccessful ones do, but would be doomed anyway.
And citing historical precedent? Well, when was the last time one party lost 65 seats in the house, when did a senator win as a write in candidate, when did the majority in the house change without the majority in the senate?
We live in interesting and changing times. The only thing that we count on is that we can't count on anything.
I hope very much that Obama grows some balls, calls out republicans on their bullshit (maybe even using that word) and rallies democrats and independents who dont want another Wall Street beholden party to govern.
Democrats have to become the party of the poor and the middle class again and have to articulate this loudly and proudly.
_________
Brian Schweitzer/Sherrod Brown 2016
(or earlier if needed)
P.S.: Brian Schweitzer would probably also stand a real chance as an independent! I hope he remains a democrat though!
P.S. 2: Schweitzer/Brown against Rubio/Romney would be really interesting