Last night was not a great night, but it was absolutely not a disaster.
Americans, in our politics, tend to be short-sighted and suffer from amnesia. From that perspective, last night looks good for Republicans and bad for Democrats. I personally think last night had GREAT results for Democrats in the long term. I'm feeling very optimistic this morning, for several reasons.
- The Republicans were sabotaged by the Tea Party, but they don't seem to know it.
There were several races that would have been much easier for the Republicans if not for Tea Party-driven candidates. O'Donnell is the obvious one in this category, but there is also the Colorado gubernatorial campaign, and the Senate races in Nevada and Connecticut. The Tea Party also failed in California and West Virginia. There's also the special case of Alaska, which gets its whole own bullet point below.
The wonderful thing is, Republicans don't seem to know this. They don't appear to realize that their more extreme candidates were the ones who lost, and that at least some of their victories (Illinois, New Hampshire) are due to moderate candidates, not their craziest wingnuts. These moderates, who were important to last night's Republican gains, are soon to be marginalized by the party they helped bring to power. Illinois did not turn red last night, and Illinois voters are quickly going to realize the mistake they made.
Republicans are ignoring this fact and thus over-reading their mandate. This was not a victory for the Tea Party, which is still not a popular movement in America. This will embolden their more odious behaviors, and help remind America why they really don't like voting Republican. I believe it might even lead them to think that nominating someone like Sarah Palin in 2012 would be a good idea--completely ignoring her very poor performance in this election post-primary.
- Republicans lost Alaska.
I wish that this had been a win for Democrats instead of a loss for Republicans. But it was a loss for them. Yes, Murkowski has been a dependable Republican vote. I would have preferred to see McAdams win. However, that R is gone from Lisa Murkowski's name. I firmly believe that this nasty experience is going to transform Murkowski from a dependable R vote into a Susan Collins/Olympia Snowe Republican woman. A headache for the Republicans, and a salve for Democrats.
And again, another strong 'refudiation' of the Tea Party and Sarah Palin, which always feels good.
And let's not discount the wonderful upcoming headlines. If Miller doesn't concede, we may be treated to a wonderful, weeks long fight over just how badly you can spell 'Murkowski' and it still be a valid vote. Miller can't win, but I hope he will be foolish enough to fight this gambit. Seeing Republicans tear into each other up North may begin to wake Americans up, again, to why they don't really like Republicans.
- The gains were only so big because 2008 was so fantastic
Reporters love historic events. They play up the singularity...of just about every single damn event. They love to say what a big loss this is.
But the loss could only be so big because the margin was so lopsided--we had SO many seats, we had many more to lose. And there were many Democrats that were serving in red districts.
But the fact is, there were 256 Democrats and 179 Republicans in the last Congress. In the upcoming Congress, if CNN's projections hold, there will be a minimum of 185 Democrats (some races are still too close to call).
See my point? If you ignore the changes and just look at absolute numbers, last night was not a historic wave--in fact, it was better for Democrats than 2008 was for Republicans.
And in the Senate, it's looking like Republicans only picked up six seats. Guess how many Dems picked up in 2006? That's right, six. Not historic, folks, it's not all that different than the last midterm.
- John Boehner's crying has just begun
There is an unruly freshmen class coming in, full of people who are even bigger attention-hogs and self-aggrandizers than the typical Congressperson. Boehner does not have Tea Party bonafides. Come January, I think we are going to see a nasty fight for the Speakership (which, to repeat the refrain, is going to help remind people why they don't like Republicans). If Boehner survives, he is going to have a difficult time keeping this raucous caucus together on anything, and will not be able to deliver on overblown expectations.
I even think it may lead to a 1995-style government shutdown--not an orchestrated one like Gingrich's, but one stemming from a complete inability to marshal the Congress. This will be a terrible thing--but in the long run, it will do huge damage to Republicans.
- Sometimes you feel like a nut...sometimes you don't.
In 1980, a wave swept a huge freshman class into Congress. In 1986, more than half of those freshmen Senators were swept promptly back out. Wave elections tend to pull in people that would not have been elected under normal circumstances, and begin leaving a bad taste in the voter's mouths when the furor dies down.
I am not convinced that characters like Rand Paul and Ron Johnson are going to be popular in the long term, and they may be able to harm the Republican brand nationally.
- Americans like balance. Now they have it.
American politics is give and take, ebb and flow. To some extent, this is good: we like freedom and are suspicious of the consolidation of power. We have an inclination to seek balance, to alternate our voting over elections (not as individuals, but as a people).
The ebb came this election. That might reduce the chances of ebb in 2012, when Obama is up for re-election. Also, remember the significant gains in the Senate in 2006; whenever you have a good year in the Senate, you have more to worry about six years down the road, when you will have more seats to defend. Again, this year's ebb may have a protective effect on some Democratic Senators who would otherwise be vulnerable in 2012.
Sometimes you have to lose a battle to win the war. Yes, we should think about what could have been done differently. Yes, we should mourn the losses of some good public servants, and the elevation of destructive people. But in the end, I think the losses tonight put us in a good position for the next election.
Keep up the hope.