Le Monde have two summaries on the latest election polls in which its reporters articulate what the rest of us are trying to figure out. Often is helps put things in focus by getting a viewpoint outside the envelope.
Le Monde's Washington correspondent (who kicks ass, imho, he hasn't gotten any of his conclusions wrong about the administration's intentions), Patrick Jarreau, answered the question of what the undecided voters are looking for in an online debate on 3 September. Jarreau says the undecided are concerned with two things: 1) They believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and 2)they believe the US invaded Iraq under false pretenses. These are very powerful arguments that Kerry can exploit. In fact, when Bush gave his acceptance speech he totally ignored the undecideds, while Kerry addressed both concerns.
Today Jarreau has written an analysis on why Kerry is slumping in the polls:
Jarreau just got back from covering Kerry in Ohio. He says Kerry bent over backwards at the outset to prevent a Bush bashfest at the Dem convention but that the tone of his stump speeches is becoming more and more agressive.
The Gallup organization has released an opinion poll saying the number one issue for people who intend to vote for Kerry is the war in Iraq. Number two is the economy. The War on Terror itself is the last thing on their minds. So it seems that the right move is to attack the President over Iraq.
But Iraq has Kerry over a barrel. The first is his widely known decision to grant war powers to Bush. In this regard, he has to strike a balance which justifies both his vote and his opposition to the President. As to the current situation in Iraq, Kerry has to hit the right notes using language critical of the war but without seeming soft on terrorism. [In Toledo, we've heard Kerry refer to the war as 'disastrous'...]
The second obstacle for Kerry is that he has over-emphasized his military service. He did so to counter Bush's claimed experience in fighting the War on Terror. But the voters are not interested in this, to Kerry's detriment. Jarreau says the campaign has decided to "put a sock over it" and will no longer mention Kerry's service or Bush's avoidance.
So it's a tough job in which Kerry has to justify past actions and at the same time get tough on the President over the remaining weeks of the campaign.