Three days after saying House Democrats weren't bluffing on killing the tax cut deal, Chris Van Hollen, the outgoing chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, tells Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday that members of his caucus will not ultimately block the tax cut deal. Instead, Van Hollen said, House Democrats will insist on a vote over the estate tax issue.
CHRIS WALLACE: Congressman Van Hollen, are Democrats really going to even consider blocking it [the tax cut deal], because you’re talking about continuing to fight over the estate tax. Are you going to consider blocking an $858 billion — call it what you will, but I’ll call it a stimulus — because of a difference over the estate tax of less, we say, than $8 billion according to the CBO, between your plan and the Republican plan? White House adviser Larry Summers says if you don’t pass this there’s a good chance we’ll get a double dip recession.
CHRIS VAN HOLLEN: Chris, we’re not talking about blocking the whole thing for that purpose. What we’re saying is we need to put this question to the test. Are the Republicans and others willing to say no to exactly what you’re talking about? $800 billion plus in tax relief and stimulus, or at least, as Paul says, making sure things don’t get worse with respect to the economy, in order to provide 6,600 families with a $25 billion tax break. … There’s a simple question. We’re not going to hold this thing up at the end of the day, but we do think that simple question should be put to the test. Nobody can argue that $25 billion…
WALLACE: And that simple question is, the estate tax?
VAN HOLLEN: The simple question is…
WALLACE: But you’re saying, I wanna key on on what you said. You’re saying we’re not going to hold this up at the end of the day. So you’re saying at the end of the day, you may want a vote on this, but at the end the day you’re not going to hold this deal up over the difference on the estate tax.
VAN HOLLEN: Well, we’re going to make sure that question is put to the test. We’re going to ask the Republicans and others are they going to block this entire deal in order to protect $25 billion for 6,600 people, that is the question.
WALLACE: Congressman Ryan, go ahead.
PAUL RYAN: Well, I think Chris just made some news, that’s fairly noteworthy, because as of just a day or two ago, we were thinking they were going to do a take it or leave it thing from their perspective and scuttle this entire agreement. If what Chris Van Hollen is saying is there going to let this agreement come to a vote, and they’re not going to rig the rules with the amendment process, then we might be able to move forward here, so that’s interesting to me.
Late yesterday, Van Hollen appeared to hedge on his earlier proclamation, telling the New York Times he hadn't intended to signal a change in position. However, this morning on MSNBC Van Hollen essentially repeated what he had said on Fox, saying that Democrats wanted to change the estate tax provision, but nonetheless making it clear it would still come up for a vote. He even left open the possibility that he would vote for it if the estate tax provision isn't stripped.
Later today, the Senate will hold its first vote on the tax cut deal. Assuming the Senate passes the deal in the next few days, the Senate-passed legislation would then head back to the House. (Technically, the Senate is amending the tax cut bill that the House already passed.) The House would then either pass the exact same bill as the Senate, pass a new version of the bill, or request a conference committee with the Senate to iron out differences. It's not clear where in that process Van Hollen wants to have a vote on the estate tax provision, but's clear that he doesn't expect the outcome of that vote to have a significant impact on either the shape of the deal or its prospects for passage.