An average of the 6 major tracking polls in NH (ARG, Zogby, UNH, Suffolk, Gallup/CNN, Globe/WBZ). All polls are categorized according to the last day of polling, and are weighted according to the daily number are respondants. Averages are rounded to one decimal place. Minor candidates and undecided are omitted.
6-Poll Weighted NH Tracking Average:
1/19 1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24
Kerry: 21.8% 24.8% 28.5% 31.9% 33.5% 36.3%
Dean: 28.8% 26.0% 22.6% 19.7% 18.7% 19.8%
Clark: 18.8% 17.2% 17.2% 16.5% 15.2% 13.0%
Edwards: 7.4% 8.0% 9.0% 9.9% 10.8% 11.2%
Lieberman: 5.6% 6.2% 6.4% 6.2% 7.2% 7.6%
Analysis: The fact that Kerry is still rising a few points a day makes his victory seem inevitable. Dean is turning it around and will likely salvage second place. The real battle is for third, if it matters. Edwards will likely overtake Clark if the momentum continues as it has. Kerry's continued rise is now coming almost exclusively at Clark's expense. Dean is going no lower.