2012 doesn't seem to look like such a good year for the Democrats. It's uncertain if President Obama will win re-election, or if Democrats will win back the House, or if they can even hold onto the Senate. But I'm not quite convinced.
I know DailyKos isn't too happy with our Democratic leaders in office right now because of the tax cut bill and other compromises, but I'm only looking from the perspective of putting as many Democrats in office as possible - I certainly have my gripes with some of these men and women, but for now, that isn't the point.
Of the senators that are up for re-election in 2012, 23 of them are Democrats and 10 are Republicans (this barring any deaths, resignations, or other unforeseeable circumstances), making it a pretty tall order for Democrats to enter 2013 with more than 53 seats in the Senate, but it's possible.
Massachusetts and Nevada are among the easiest targets for Democrats - Charlie Cook rates both as toss-ups. Just about every progressive who keeps up with political news should know who Scott Brown is, after he pulled out a 5 point victory over Martha Coakley to replace the late Ted Kennedy earlier this year. PPP polled this race recently, and while Scott Brown is fairly popular, he's not impenetrable. Vicki Kennedy has indicated she might make a run, and she seems to be our best chance, trailing Brown by only seven points (48-41). For reference, Scott Brown only started getting attention when he trailed Martha Coakley by nine in a Rasmussen poll.
Nevada is another low-hanging fruit, mainly due to a scandal-plagued incumbent in John Ensign, and Harry Reid's impressive 6 point victory over Sharron Angle, when many polls showed him trailing by a handful of points. Reid's machine should not be underestimated - he got out the vote among union members and minorities across the state and beat the polls by 10 points. Ensign and Reid had a gentleman's agreement that they wouldn't use their resources to target each other, but Ensign seems to have broken away from that after coaching Angle for debates, so it's very likely that Reid won't hold anything back in helping a Democratic challenger take down Ensign. And that's if Ensign even makes it past the primary. It's very possible he'll lose to a tea party candidate, making an easier path to victory for the Democrat, who's likely to be Shelley Berkley, the popular representative of NV-01. Some buzz was made about internal polls showing her winning a prospective race against Ensign.
Past Nevada and Massachusetts, two states the DNC should focus heavily on, it gets foggier. That's because the next handful of states are all dependent on who the Republicans put up, and not so much who the Democrat is. If they make it past their respective primaries, Olympia Snowe, Richard Lugar, and Jon Kyl would win their elections easily, probably picking up more than 60 percent of the vote. But the tea party, feeling good about their success in the House, probably isn't going to let Snowe and Lugar off that easily. As for Kyl, it seems to be a consensus among the state GOP gurus that he won't be seeking re-election in 2012, and without a long-standing fixture in Arizonian politics like John McCain, it makes the nomination of a J.D. Hayworth all the more likely.
Gabrielle Giffords is being discussed as a possible challenger for the Arizona Senate seat in 2012, whether Kyl retires or not. Giffords is an excellent fundraiser, and can definitely hold her own in a tough election, surviving the 2010 wave that hit many Democratic incumbents across the country. I'll admit that I can't think of very strong candidates in Indiana or Maine - Maine is such a blue state that Democrats could run a generic D against a teabagger and probably win, unless the actual Democrat's campaign self-destructs like it did in the gubernatorial race this year. Eliot Cutler, the progressive independent who came in a close second for governor, would be solid, if the state Democratic party could convince him to run under their banner. In Indiana, given the state's red lean, it would probably take someone pretty extraordinary, but with Obama's victory in 2008, it doesn't seem impossible.
Best case scenario: Democrats sweep Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada, and manage to pick up the seats in Arizona and Indiana. Just for shits and giggles, Lieberman loses in Connecticut to an actual Democrat. It's a very tall order, and even then we're only at 58 seats. Which is where Reid comes in. I don't think it'd be a bad idea at all if he tried to get Murkowski to caucus with the Democrats. It probably makes the most sense - she voted yea on both the DREAM Act and repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell, indicating that she'll be towing a more moderate line in the future. It wasn't that she's bucking her party, but her party bucked her, and even though they seem to have welcomed her back, she's still in the minority. One of Murkowski's greatest strengths is that she was able to get pork for her state of Alaska, and the GOP leaders don't seem too hot on that. There's always Senator Begich, but he lacks the seniority that Murkowski has. I think it'd be a good move for her.
Susan Collins on the other hand, has no real reason to leave the Republican Party, unless Snowe gets canned in her primary, and the teabagger propped up in her place takes a heavy beating. If the White House and DNC could assure her of no major primary challenge in 2014 (not that this is always followed through on), she might be more than happy to make the jump and run as a Democrat, or an Independent caucusing with the Democrats. With the five seats won, and two Republicans brought across the aisle, Democrats would be at 60 seats. The same position they were at the height of their majority in 2009.
The problem with this calculation is that there's no room for error. Even if Democrats manage to pick up those five seats, they'll still need to convince Collins and Murkowski to buck their parties and join the winning team. It's a longshot, and I would be ecstatic if we even saw 55 (ideal: +CT/MA/ME/NV, -NE). However, there's no reason to not go for broke, and this is the 50 state strategy at its core, which saw Democrats make great strides in 2008 and 2006. This would require a heavy lift from supporters across the country, but I think we could do it.
In short:
WIN every Democratic-held seat.
WIN Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada.
WIN the caucus support of Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.
=
WIN 60 seats in 2012.