I wrote this on Sept 28th 2008. I think this was an acurate post. I predicted the eventual win for Obama and the troubles coming from the left. Read below...
Sept 28th, 2008
"There is a day coming soon when Democrats, particularly the left wing of the Democratic Party are going to have to reckon with the fact that their guy is going to win. Nora's (Ephon) impressions that McCain won the debate are residue from decades of being knocked down.
Yes. We can win and yes we will win.
The question is, can the left be mature in victory? Realistic in victory? Pragmatic in victory?
Time to get over this bizarre myth and fear that McCain will snatch this election from us. Forget that thought right now. Obama will win and win easily.
I only wonder if the left can make a shift from political complainers to political legislators. We shall see."
UPDATE: Dec 30, 2010
The left has proven to be totally unreliable for Obama. He has deleiverd on basically everything he campaigned on in 2008. From DADT to HCR, Obama has delivered. Unfortunately, liberals were not able to move from the panic and fear felt under W Bush to mature and responsible legislators. In my opinion, the left is in a rut of complaining. The left complained about W and HW Bush, complained about Clinton, complained about Reagan and now they are complaining about Obama.
I give Obama a 50/50 shot of winning in 2012. Of course, it will all come down to the economy. If unemployment is at 7% he wins easily, if it's at 8-9% it's a toss up, if it's at 10% or more forget it.
If Obama does lose, the left will look back very fondly on Obama. He delivered in ways the left will never ever ever see again. Yet, the left treated Obama like the enemy he never was. Now, a politician would be crazy to trust the "professional left" again. How can you trust a left wing that back stabs you and leaves you in a flash? How can you trust a left wing that let's it's rock stars lose (Feingold, Grayson)
Presidents need to appeal to the vast center, this includes social moderates and fiscal moderates and liberals...are neither. Liberals have not shown the ability to be pragmatic, crafty, intelligent, cagey nor strategic since taking down the GOP. Liberals have been obvious, loud and stupid. They cost Dem's the house and may perhaps the senate and White House in 2012. The left alienated the middle. Admit it.
I do have hopes that liberals will wake up over the next two years and learn thier place. I hope liberals will learn the concept of incrementalism. If you want to see incrementalism in action look at the abortion debate. That bar has moved steadily to the right...the Christian conservatives are patient and incremental and may one day win. Libs could learn a lot from those people.