It's no certainty, that's for sure, but there's a reasonable possibility that Obama might get elected to a second term. But, given the state of affairs in America today, is there really any likelihood that a second term would deliver major legislative initiatives, true reform, and genuine progressive change? Whether you are an Obama loyalist or not, you know in your heart that Obama's second term is highly unlikely to deliver such change. Why? Lot's of reasons, but it boils down to this: The people don't demand it.
You could say the electorate in uninformed and incapable of helping itself, too often voting against its own interests. You could say that corporate interests control the government and the political process, thereby blocking true change. And there's nothing Obama can do about it.
Or is there?
There is a reason why true progressive change doesn't happen in America: The people don't demand it - there is no mandate for such change.
Even when Obama was elected on a platform of "change" in 2008, there was no clearly defined vision of what that change would be. Anyone hoping to bring about true progressive change in America must first tackle the problem of how to create a mandate for such change. So long as the population doesn't demand it, there is no chance of it happening. This is why the right-wing agenda focuses so much on anti-intellectual issues and fear-oriented politics - a population that thinks critically and votes for rational public policy would surely overturn the corporate oligarchy that dominates American politics today.
Few people in America are in a position to create the mandate needed to bring about true progressive change. Obama, however, could do it. He hasn't done it yet, but he is in a unique position to create the grassroots movement to bring radical change to the American social-political system. In order to do it, however, he would have to do the unthinkable: Refuse to run in 2012, then come back in either 2016 or 2020.
Crazy? Well, if Obama stepped away in 2012, he could do so as a proven leader, a competent, intelligent guy who led this country through a very tough period of economic crisis. If he stayed and ran in 2012, of course, the divisive atmosphere that we see today would continue, even into his next term if he won re-election. But if he shocked the country by stepping away, he could come back later with a massive grassroots movement for REAL change behind him.
Read more:Obama can make us beg for real change
Not likely to happen, but the theory is sound. Don't expect real change if Obama is re-elected in 2012. At best, he will be a defense mechanism against the even worse agenda of the GOP.