My home state always gets looked at b/c of it's oddball election system. However, now that the media is starting to draw up possible electoral maps, I'm somewhat astonished that most of the media is picking Louisiana to be a safe red state. Why? What evidence is there for that?
Louisiana has it's conservative tendancies yes. But lets look at the voting trends. 1992, Clinton wins. 1996, Clinton not only wins, he dominates. 2002, Landrieu re-elected into the minority, despite a fierce Bushie campaign. 2003, Governor's mansion goes back to Democratic control.
If voting trends aren't enough, then look at the reasons why these victories occured. Those of you who remember 2002, surely you remember the sugar issue. Bush was caught in a flat out doublecross of Louisiana sugar producers. They made him pay, a traditionally Republican area split evenly for Landrieu and Terrell, which assured Terrell's defeat. That same night, Rodney Alexander wins in a House district that is 56% Republican by voter registration.
Democrats now control all but one state wide office. One Senator, John Breaux has a 74% approval rating. A Republican Congressman has been forced into retirement next year due to his part in a Medicare scandal. Put these factors together, and you've got the setting for a Democratic victory this November. Am I positive it will happen? No! Bush is personally liked in LA, but his policies, several of them are not. Louisiana has twice rejected his approved nominee, Terrell, and Bobby Jindal for guv. If it were just Terrell, one could argue fluke. But the very next year, LA says no to a guy who worked for Bush at the WH. That should tell folks something. Also ad in Kerry's popularity with Catholics. I hope Kerry gives LA more attention than the media is. It is a prime spot for a Democratic takeover.
