Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (1/28/2009 results)
Senate
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 43 (38)
Mark Kirk (R) 36 (30)
The Giannoulias family has had some legal problem of late, and some worried that would rub off on Alexi. It doesn't seem to have done that to any significant extent. A year ago, Alexi's fav/unfav was at 36/15. This week, it was at 49/34. Democrats like him at a clip of 71/14, while Independents are still positive on him 47/35.
Those are better numbers than Mark Kirk, at 42/35 overall, propped up by surprisingly strong numbers from Democrats -- 22/50. Independents are at 40/34. Note, while 17 percent have no opinion about Giannoulias, 23 percent feel the same way about Kirk, meaning he has slightly more room to grow. Democrats can't allow Kirk to positively define himself with the quarter of the electorate who still don't have an opinion about him.
18 percent of Democrats remain undecided, compared to just 13 percent of Republicans. As those voters come home, it should slightly boost Alexi's numbers, but the winning margin will come from independents -- currently the biggest undecided block in the poll. They are currently split between the two candidates 36-35 (with the statistically insignificant edge going to Alexi). 26 percent are still undecided.
Alexi runs strong in Cook County, which also features the largest number of undecideds at 22 percent, while Kirk leads in every other region of the state (collar counties, central and southern Illinois). The Democratic machine will certainly be under pressure to deliver the votes in Chicago and surrounding towns.
In the governor's race:
Quinn (D) 47
Brady (R) 32
Quinn (D) 46
Dillard (R) 35
Brady won the first count during the Republican primary, but led by just 300-ish votes. A recount is currently underway, and the crazy might happen, but chances are Brady will be the Republican nominee, which is great news for Quinn.
Given the travails of former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, one might think Quinn -- the former Lt. Gov. who took over the state when Blago resigned, would be faring more poorly. But 1) voters still haven't gotten as sick of Democratic corruption as they had in New Jersey, and 2) Republican corruption is still too fresh in everyone's minds. Remember, the governor that preceeded Blagojevich, George Ryan, is currently serving a 6 1/2-year sentence in a federal penitentiary for corruption.
In Illinois, corruption is a decidedly bipartisan affair. It'd be nice if Quinn could break that cycle.