Okay, so don't throw the 10-d chess analogy, or whatever it is, just because I'm suggesting a smart strategic move by Obama, that perhaps hasn't been accounted for previously, which would mean he's very smart politically. So, if the below has not been his plan, it's certainly a plausible route from here.
I think Obama is unleashing the big guns, after giving the Republicans enough rope to hang themselves - hoist on the petard of their own bigotry and incompetence.
He's switching the culture wars back on, which Republicans think of as their ace-in-the-hole. Instead of running from the culture wars, Obama is calling for the nation to recognize the truth:
...that a plurality of Americans holds consistently far more liberal ideals than the dominant media narrative...
Shining the spotlight on an America where people draw their own conclusions, rather than listening to a media framing that hasn't moved on or changed, despite a disastrous decade for America.
The opening salvo is Gays in the Military. Within that topic lies the unwinding of Republicans ability to leverage the petty bigotries of some, against the nation itself.
The Republicans' knowing nods and winks to the racist right, in their opposition to Obama - the disrespect, the birther nonsense, the lack of criticism of the Fox/Limbaugh/Beck insanity - will come back to bite them.
Obama has so clearly held out his hand to the Republicans, and so consistently, that a clear majority of the country sees this. I think the polls can fairly be interpreted to be telling this story. Clear majorities see Obama as trying to bring the best out in America, as trying to work with Republicans, as having failed to do so.
I don't think it's clear that the country has solidified its position on exactly who is to blame for this - though I think it's certainly still leaning towards acknowledging the Republicans' culpability. Whoever most successfully drives the narrative this year defines the direction of that blame and wins political ground in this year's elections.
The Republicans have fought to give Obama no political victories - most fiercely on healthcare, precisely because they understand what a tremendous political win comprehensive healthcare reform would be for the Democratic party, were it passed into law.
As an aside I think it shows everybody just how craven are those Democrats who battled their own President and party, against the expressed wishes (see all polls) of their own voters, whose interests they are supposed to represent, and against the interests of the nation as a whole. To whom is their loyalty if they have betrayed those groups, as they so clearly have?
But by being so explicit in his attempts to work with everybody, and being so humiliatingly rejected, he has the positioning to play out a repositioning of the media frame on the culture wars. Smartly the first battle-ground (if you'll forgive the pun) is Gays In The Military & DADT.
This Frank Rich column is great and sparked my thinking on the topic: http://www.nytimes.com/...
This is a win for Obama and Democrats because Republicans have to position themselves as extremists in opposition to a clear majority of the electorate, or make their already-batshit-crazy base even more pissed off at them. More primaries. More candidates who alienate a plurality of voters.
The question is are Republicans smart enough to recognize this - or too enraptured by charlatans like Frank Luntz? If they are, and they can figure this out for themselves (or with back channel nudging from team Obama) then they can make a better deal - give ground on healthcare, on initiatives by Obama that genuinely help get this country out of the multiple holes the last decade left it in. If both sides are smart they'll let Republicans play the bipartisan card too and try to bring politics back from the edge.
Why is this so toxic for Republicans? Because America is, by clear majorities opposed to all forms of bigotry (with the exception of anti-Athiest bigotry IMHO). If the DADT fight is whipped up into a spectacle and a big deal is made of it the Republicans lose and end up being positioned as condoning bigotry. Which brings up their embrace of the racists, the tea-partying birthers. Their de facto endorsement of the Fox/Limbaugh axis. Which is increasingly unpopular.
Their construction, as a holding company for enough collective bigotries, resentments and hatreds, makes the Republican party a remarkably weak organization. They have only survived because we have a media narrative at least thirty years outdated - because it's dominated by TV personalities who are mainly baby boomers, whose world-views were shaped and fixed in place over thirty years ago (the sixties and seventies). But the media landscape has changed. So has the landscape of public opinion. Only the narrative has failed to keep up.
Obama is threatening to change that narrative. Up to now he's been inviting all sides to help him change the narrative. But either way the narrative will change. Republicans can be on the right side of things, and slowly recover as a serious political entity (albeit continue to be out of power for some time), or they can be on the wrong side of things and be further marginalized and be surprised as they continue to lose elections.
Of course they could still fall further off the cliff into outright fascism, so keep an eye on Palin, but hopefully we won't end up there...
