For those of you who have gone into campaign minutiae withdrawal, there is good news: The Wrap is back. With primaries on the horizon and the real world (aka my day job) interfering a bit, it looks like the Wrap will be a three day a week feature for the next few months. So, expect to see the Wrap on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.
And, on this particular Monday, there is MUCH to see....
THE U.S. SENATE
FL-Sen: High-Ranking GOP House Member Sides With Marco Rubio
In the latest sign that the GOP candidacy of Governor Charlie Crist is circling the drain, high-ranking House Republican Mike Pence has thrown his endorsement to insurgent GOP candidate Marco Rubio. Pence, you will recall, flirted with a Senate bid of his own earlier this month before standing down.
IN-Sen: The Coats Rollout Continues to...Well...Amuse
Former Republican Senator Dan Coats, who has decided to challenge Democrat Evan Bayh, is taking heavy incoming fire as he rolls out his campaign. Bad enough that the Senator-turned-lobbyist's firm lobbied for Yemen, but the DSCC quickly got on the board with an ad, complete with video, of Coats singing the praises of his home state...of North Carolina.
NV-Sen: Tarkanian, Now the Frontrunner, Makes Flub Caught on Tape
Recent polls, including one from Rasmussen late last week, make clear that Danny Tarkanian is the leading Republican in the race against Senator Harry Reid. Given that status, he probably doesn't want to get caught, on tape, accidentally getting Harry Reid and Ronald Reagan mixed up.
NY-Sen "A": Charles Schumer Likely To Get Serious GOP Opponent
To this point, all of the Empire State Senate talk has revolved around the seat held by freshman Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. That might change now, with the news that CNBC talking head Larry Kudlow is increasingly likely to make a Senate bid against Charles Schumer. Schumer, seeking his third term, might sweat at Kudlow's notoriety, but the recent polling (PDF) from Marist seems to put Schumer in good shape: they have him leading Kudlow 67-25.
OH-Sen: New Ras Poll Shows Dems Gaining on GOP Frontrunner
Republican standard bearer Rob Portman has a huge cash edge over both Democrats (Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner). His polling edge, however, might be dissipating. A Rasmussen poll released today has Portman leading either Fisher (43-39) or Brunner (42-38) by the same four-point margin. Brunner was closer than Fisher the last time Rasmussen polled the race, but Brunner's campaign is reeling a bit from the news that she raised less than six figures in the last quarter of 2009.
WA-Sen: Murray May Have Legitimate Oppo in 2010 From The GOP
Patty Murray has been confronted with a series of second-tier Republicans up to this point, but that may well be about to change. Don Benton, who has served Southwestern Washington in the state Senator for years and ran for Congress over a decade ago, is looking to get into the U.S. Senate race.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AZ-03: Field Firming Up in the Shadegg Open Seat
One of the final dominoes in the Arizona 3rd has fallen with the news that Shadegg staffer Sean Noble will not see his old boss' seat in Congress. The GOP field was probably too full, at any rate, with three state legislators and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker already in the race. On the Democratic side, Jon Hulburd has already raised an impressive amount of cash as the only announced Democrat in the field, while Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon is still mulling it over.
CO-03: Dusty GOP Poll Says This Could Be Close Race
Here is a potentially interesting catch from DC's Political Report: a poll conducted back in December by Tarrance Group had three-term Democratic incumbent John Salazar only up two points on Republican state legislator Scott Tipton (46-44). Salazar has won easily in his last two House bids, but this is a district (on Colorado's Western Slope) which is pretty amenable to Republican candidates at the federal level. Also, the former GOP Congressman from the region, Scott McInnis, will be on the ballot as the likely GOP gubernatorial nominee, which might boost GOP turnout.
HI-01: Main Dem Contenders Stands At Two With Espero Announcement
Democrats got a break of sorts over the weekend with the news that Democratic State Senator Will Espero will not run for Congress. This is not intended as a slight to Espero, but is based on the peculiarities of Hawaii election law--the Spring's special election is an all-candidate affair, meaning that the Republican in the field (councilman Charles Djou) could emerge victorious given enough division in the Democratic Party's support.
KS-03: Democrats Suffer Major Recruiting Setback in Moore Seat
This has to be defined as a major blow for Democrats: when former KCK (Kansas City, Kansas) Mayor Carol Marinovich declined a Congressional bid a few months back, the assumption was that her successor, Joe Reardon, would make the race. Only he has also now declined to run, as well. This sends Democrats back to the drawing board in a race that is an open seat in swing territory.
NH-01: Has Guinta's Fade Opened the GOP Playing Field?
For most of 2009, the assumption was that the NRCC had coalesced around former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta in his bid to take out sophomore Democrat Carol Shea-Porter. His weak campaign (most clearly marked by anemic fundraising) has apparently inspired a lack of confidence in his bid. One Republican, businessman Rich Ashooh, is already in, and now comes word that former GOP Committeeman Sean Mahoney is eyeing the race, as well.
RI-01/RI-02: Poll Paints Different Pictures For R.I. Dems
A new poll out today from Fleming and Associates for WPRI-TV shows that one Democratic incumbent in Rhode Island is in good shape, while the other is in seriously perilous shape. The safe Democrat is the 2nd district's Jim Langevin, whose re-elect stands at 42%, with his "replace" figure at just 14%. For longtime Democratic Rep. Patrick Kennedy, however, the picture is a little less certain. Just 35% say they'd re-elect Kennedy, while 31% are interested in replacing him.
TN-09: Cohen Again Target of Racial Campaign Appeal
Not that he isn't already somewhat familiar with the tactic, but Tennessee Congressman Steve Cohen (who is white) is again being hit by an opponent eager to use race as a campaign rationale in the heavily-black Memphis-based 9th district. Former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton, who is making a somewhat quixotic bid against Cohen, said that African-Americans living in Tennessee should find it wrong that the state's Congressional delegation is all-White. He also seemed to strongly imply that fairness dictated that the 9th distict's representative should be African-American. Cohen dealt with similar issues in his last Democratic primary against Nikki Tinker.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Republican Girl Power!
Women make up a slight majority of the population and the electorate. Despite that, they only make up roughly 15-20% of the Congress in any given year. But those are huge numbers compared to the number of women in the NRCC's vaunted "Young Guns" program for campaign challengers. At present, that number stands at a cool 6.3%. That's right, just 4 of the 64 names on the list are women.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CO-Gov: Rasmussen Sees A Democratic Leader in Colorado
Rasmussen polls with Democrats in the lead are practically "Stop the Presses!" moments by now, so take note of this one. In the state of Colorado, Rasmussen has Democrat John Hickenlooper, Denver's Mayor, with a four-point lead over likely GOP challenger Scott McInnis (49-45). McInnis routinely led incumbent Democratic Governor Bill Ritter, and had a three-point lead over Hickenlooper in a January poll taken just after the Denver Mayor announced his candidacy.
MI-Gov: Dem Field Grows With Commitment From Bernero
It looks like Democrats are finally coming off of the sideline in the high-profile open-seat Governor's race in Michigan. Virg Bernero, the forty-something mayor of Lansing, has announced that he is running for Governor. Bernero is often referred to as a "populist", which might be a good approach in this campaign cycle. Other Democrats eyeing the race including House Speaker Andy Dillon and UM Regent Denise Ilitch.
NV-Gov: Reid Trails Sandoval, Leads Other GOPers
Here is another Rasmussen poll that is not particularly awful for Democrats. In Nevada, Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, the only high-profile Democrat in the field, trails only former federal judge Brian Sandoval among the three Republican hopefuls for Governor that were tested. Reid trails Sandoval by a solid margin (45-33), but leads both North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (40-36) and embattled incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons (44-35).
NY-Gov: Paterson In Trouble? He Denies It
New York Governor David Paterson became a target for some salacious campaign gossip over the weekend. Reports began to surface early in the weekend that Paterson was about to be exposed for some pretty major league personal indiscretions, with the rumor that the New York Times was working on a bombshell piece. There was even a report late in the weekend that Paterson was contemplating either resignation or retirement. Today, though, Paterson lashed out at the press, denying all rumors and implying that he was still full speed ahead on running for re-election.
RI-Gov: Former GOP-Turned-Indy Leads in Deep Blue State
Could the Democratic embrace of Lincoln Chafee when he left the GOP and endorsed Barack Obama in 2008 be biting them on the behind now? In a deep-blue state like Rhode Island, neither major Democrat running for Governor manages to lead the former Senator in the latest poll by Fleming and Associates for WPRI-TV. State Treasurer Frank Caprio comes a little closer, with Chafee edging him 31-30, with Republican John Robataille well behind. Against Democratic state Attorney General Patrick Lynch, Chafee leads 34-23, with Robataille at 18%.