Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% (8/2-12/09 results)
Let's start with the governor's race:
Meg Whitman (R) 52 (24)
Steve Poizner (R) 19 (9)
(Tom Campbell, then in the governor's race, got 19 percent in August 2009 poll)
Meg Whitman (R) 41 (36)
Jerry Brown (D) 45 (42)
Steve Poizner (R) 33 (34)
Jerry Brown (D) 48 (43)
Brown (D) 52/40 (48/37)
Whitman (R) 51/35 (41/30)
Poizner (R) 37/40 (35/27)
Poizner is the ultra-conservative teabagger candidate in the race, and going nowhere, so we're likely to get a Whitman/Brown matchup. Both those candidates are evenly matched in favorabilities, though the state's Democratic tilt gives Brown a bit of a head start. The results are still a bit surprising, however. Brown has run the most invisible, stealth campaign, in state history. Seriously, the dude is nowhere to be found. Meanwhile, Whitman has spent tents of millions of dollars in her campaign, and is running on near saturation television ads:
The campaign’s Gross Rating Point report, measuring total delivery of the current week’s broadcast ad schedule in 11 markets in California, shows that eMeg’s buy is comparable to what a fully-loaded campaign might ordinarily deliver in the closing weeks of a heated race – not three months before a primary that she’s prohibitively leading.
“These are some big fuckin’ numbers,” said Bill Carrick, the veteran Democratic media consultant after reviewing the report. “She’s buying the whole shebang.”
While she may be the prohibitive favorite in the primary, it's done little to bolster her general election standing. She's gained just two points on Jerry Brown since last August. And remember, that's against Brown's invisible campaign.
Brown dominates in the Bay Area 61-22, while Whitman does best down South, around San Diego, 56-34. Independents split 41-40, with Brown with the small but statistically insignificant edge. 19 percent of independents remain undecided.
The biggest undecided block are African Americans, who break 66-6 for Brown, but with 28 percent undecided. Getting them out to vote will be key for Brown. Same with Latinos, who give Brown a 60-27 edge, with 13 percent undecided.
Brown may be 255 years old (give or take a decade), but voters over 60 go for Whitman 45-38. The Millennials remain the strongest Democratic age group -- 49-37 for Brown. They are also the least likely to vote. Thus Brown's early edge is one built on a shaky foundation -- strong support from the demographics least likely to turn out and vote. Whitman has been running a gaffe prone campaign thus far. If she gets her act together, this could be a real dogfight.
In the Senate race:
Tom Campbell (R) 33
Carly Fiorina (R) 24
Chuck DeVore (R) 7
Barbara Boxer (D) 47
Tom Campbell (R) 43
Barbara Boxer (D) 49 (52)
Carly Fiorina (R) 40 (31)
Barbara Boxer (D) 49 (53)
Chuck DeVore (R) 39 (29)
Boxer (D) 50/45 (49/43)
Campbell (R) 46/37 (38/29)
Fiorina (R) 35/43 (22/29)
DeVore (R) 34/42 (21/27)
Boxer has the early edge, but she's under the magical 50 percent safe mark. Fiorina and DeVore have terrible favorability numbers, leaving Campbell as Boxer's most serious competition.
Of course, this is familiar territory for her. In 2004 -- another strong GOP year -- the scary accurate Field Poll had Boxer head just 48-38 in February of that year. Boxer didn't break the 50 percent mark in that key California poll until May, and she never looked back. We'll see if she can repeat history in this, yet another challenging year for Democrats.
Against Campbell, who runs strongest against her, Boxer dominates the bay Area (63-24) and leads 2-1 in LA County (58-28). The Central Valley and San Diego area, on the other hand, are problems. Also, like Brown, her strongest demographics are also those least likely to vote -- young voters, African Americans and Latinos.
Still, Boxer starts off with the edge. And Campbell is nowhere near locking down his primary like Whitman. That contest appears to be anyone's game, especially with 36 percent still undecided.
Update: Oops, sorry for the dead crosstabs. That page is now working properly.