Simple diary, simple question, simple poll.
With the current GOP obstructionism, it seems likely to me that even for popular and (should be) simple legislation, things could turn into a street fight. So, I figure I'd ask the question:
What should be the next "big push" for Obama?
We saw in HCR how Obama was able to push it across the line with a late push. He remains the catalyst for the party, the one party figure who can convert legislative efforts into results. By my accounting, the following major issues remain to be resolved with good legislation instead of half-baked solutions:
-Financial Reform
-Climate Change / Energy
-DADT
-More jobs efforts
-Immigration
Case for / case against (brief, by me):
Financial Reform: Quite popular. Details remain to be worked out. Biggest danger here, to me, is that in an effort to enlist a couple Senate Republicans the enforcement mechanisms lose teeth. House has passed bill. Effects of passage could be seen immediately, blunting expected 2010 losses.
Climate Change: Remains controversial, largely because of efforts of skeptics who confuse the public. House has passed bill. Perhaps the most important long-range issue to deal with, on a national security / etc basis, but short-term gives little benefit to dealing with. International agreement (weak) has been reached, and House has passed legislation. Effects of passage would not be seen immediately, and in fact the skeptics could spin passage into hurting chances in 2010, via lies and / or obscuring of the truth.
DADT: Increasingly popular; those opposed to repealing would likely never vote Democratic anyways. House has not passed ; I see little downside to passage and some upside (2010 Elections-wise). Strongest case for passage is that it's the right thing to do. May not take much political capital on Obama's part to pass.
Jobs Bills Issues are twofold here. The stimulus did work; and the primary issue here is messaging. The Dems need to win the message war and pass more measures, and then properly message regarding how bad things would have been without the stimulus and jobs bills. This also may not take much political capital on Obama's part, but it remains very important in terms of Dems 2010 election prospects.
Immigration Reform Case for: long-term, this is a winner for the Dems, if the bill that's passed is a good one. (A crappy bill would hurt both short and long term). Short-term, I can't tell what the effect is. This would likely take a lot of political capital on Obama's part to push across the line, since obstructionism is likely to be high, even with Lindsey Graham involved.
Personally, I think that Obama and this Congress have already secured their place in history as a very good Congress between HCR and the stimulus, along with a laundry list of smaller things. If he gets one more major thing through, then the combo will be elevated to "great" in my book. Two more? "Very great". Three or more big things, things that have been needed for a long time, through? Incredible. The bills that pass have to mean something, too - a half-baked bill won't count, like a finance bill with no teeth or a climate bill that doesn't help the climate, etc.