Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4%, 5% for primary sample. (11/30-12/2-2009 results)
Democratic Senate Primary
Blanche Lincoln (D) 44 (42)
Bill Halter (D) 31 (26)
Undecided 25 (32)
Favorable/Unfavorable/No opinion
Lincoln: 42/52/6 (41/50/9)
Halter: 46/27/27 (36/25/39)
Among Democrats
Lincoln: 62/34/4 (62/32/6)
Halter: 68/10/22 (55/11/34)
Halter has creeped closer to Lincoln in the first two weeks of the primary campaign, from being down 16 points to -13. But more importantly, look at those favorabilities -- Lincoln is actually down a net point, from -9, to -10 (within the poll's margin of error, of course). Halter, on the other hand, is up a net eight points, from +11 to +19. And 27 percent still don't know who he is.
At this stage in the campaign, those are the key numbers, especially since Lincoln is still well below the magic 50 percent "safe" mark for incumbents. The Democratic numbers are particularly salient given the primary -- Halter's (thus far) positive campaign has done wonders for his own approvals. That's why the Lincoln campaign was, today, the first of the two to go negative, sending out a direct mail piece (PDF) attacking Halter for serving on the board of two biotechnology firms who ran into legal troubles (even though he had nothing to do with those troubles). Weak stuff, and certainly the actions of a campaign that is feeling the heat.
Meanwhile, Halter has improved his general election standing significantly and now runs even or better than Lincoln against the potential Republican candidates.
Blanche Lincoln (D) 42
John Boozman (R) 49
Bill Halter (D) 40
John Boozman (R) 48
Blanche Lincoln (D) 43 (46)
Kim Hendren (R) 48 (30)
Bill Halter (D) 44 (36)
Kim Hendren (R) 45 (31)
Blanche Lincoln (D) 41 (41)
Gilbert Baker (R) 49 (42)
Bill Halter (D) 44 (34)
Gilbert Baker (R) 46 (42)
Blanche Lincoln (D) 44 (44)
Curtis Coleman (R) 47 (39)
Bill Halter (D) 45 (35)
Curtis Coleman (R) 44 (40)
Blanche Lincoln (D) 43 (45)
Tom Cox (R) 47 (31)
Bill Halter (D) 45 (36)
Tom Cox (R) 43 (32)
Compared to the December results, Lincoln has lost significant ground to her Republican opponents. Meanwhile, Halter is now even with all of the Republicans who aren't Rep. Boozman, clearly the best potential GOP candidate.
Now with Boozman, both Democrats run equally behind. But there's a big difference in the two potential races: Lincoln is the incumbent, and undecideds tend to disproportionately favor the challenger. That's why incumbents over 50 percent are considered safe -- because the undecideds aren't enough to flip a seat. (Look at the primary undecideds -- down seven points, Halter got five, Lincoln got two.) Given the hole Lincoln faces against the northwest Arkansas congressman, it's hard to see how she makes up that ground and wins the race. She's still dead man walking.
On the other hand, a Boozman-Halter race would make Boozman the de facto incumbent -- he's been in Washington D.C. for 10 years now. In this environment, you want the outsider hitting the entrenched DC incumbent, and Democrats can do that with Halter as their nominee. And given the large number of people who still don't have an opinion about him, Halter has plenty of room to grow in a way Lincoln no longer can, further eroding Boozman's early advantage.
That's why Lincoln runs worse against the no-name outsider Republicans vying for the seat compared to Halter. People like outsiders.
Lincoln can't play that game, and Boozman can't play that game.
That makes Halter the best possible candidate Democrats can nominate in Arkansas.
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Update: The primary is May 18.
