People in voth parties are often heard say, "well, my party will do very well in November because we're more enthusiastic than the other team."
How useful is this "enthusiasm gap" figure, really?
In a new Washington Post poll released today, Democrats are said to have a 1% edge over Republicans.
But in the same poll we can see that Republicans had a 2% edge (80% to 78%) in October 2006, just one month before they got their ass whooped by the Dems., who gained 31 House seats.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
Is the enthusiasm gap useless? I think so.
The best way to have an idea of who will win how many seats is reading Larry Sabatho, Charlie Cook and Nate Silver. Odds are that these three (usually perfectly accurate) will have numbers that agree with each other on these elections. Right now I believe Republicans are on pace to gain 27 seats in the House, according to Sabatho and his "crystal ball." This will change only if these experts say it changed.