As seems to be the norm lately, a very busy couple of days in the world of political campaigns and political polling. Let's get right to it....
THE U.S. SENATE
KS-Sen: Either Tiahrt or Moran Favored to Hold Seat for GOP
This will surprise absolutely no one, but Democrats are the longest of longshots to pick up the Senate seat coming open in the Sunflower State, according to new numbers from Rasmussen. Ras polls both Congressman Todd Tiahrt and Congressman Jerry Moran against "Generic Democrat", and ole G.D. gets beat by a roughly 2-to-1 against either of them. Moran does incrementally better (51-26) than does Tiahrt (50-29).
NY-Sen: Gillibrand Leads All Republicans, According to Ras
With each passing day, the reason for Harold Ford Jr's decision to exit the New York Senate race becomes more apparent. Not only were his own political fortunes circling the drain, but his likely Democratic rival, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, is enjoying a bit of a political surge of her own. According to the newest numbers from Rasmussen, Gillibrand leads all GOP comers, including the still-undecided George Pataki, who Gillibrand has trailed in a number of trial heats. She now edges the former Gov by a pair (44-42), and also easily led NY Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman by double digits (47-36). Interestingly, Ras chose not to poll Bruce Blakeman, who differs from the two tested Republicans in one quirky way--he's actually running. Zuckerman, for his part, seemed to slam the door on a potential bid today.
These numbers by the way, track reasonably closely to a Marist Poll released yesterday, which had Gillibrand tight with Pataki (they gave Pataki a 48-45 lead) while blasting either Zuckerman or Blakeman (Marist had the Senator leading Blakeman 58-28). They also had the other NY Democratic Senator, Chuck Schumer, destroying CNBC analyst Lawrence Kudlow (69-24).
ND-Sen: Democrats Lose Top Recruit For Open Senate Seat
The odds were pretty darned long in any event, and in the final analysis, that might explain why former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp made the call not to run for the U.S. Senate this year. The seat, left open by the January retirement of longtime incumbent Byron Dorgan, encouraged GOP Governor John Hoeven to get into the race. Democrats are likely to rely either on state legislator Tracy Potter or young businesswoman Kristin Hedger (who has run statewide, and came close to a victory, despite being just 29 years of age).
THE U.S. HOUSE
OK-02: Boren Looks Safe In Uber-Red Oklahoma District
Dan Boren, the conservative Dem who has been representing the very red 2nd district in Oklahoma since 2004, looks safe for a fourth term, according to a new poll by the crew at PPP. Boren has leads ranging from 16-27 points over a quartet of little known Republican rivals, while an Independent candidate logs in the high single digits.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
GA-Gov: Peach State A Possible Dem Pickup?
PPP takes an early look at the Georgia Governor's race, and finds something that has been thus far elusive in the 2010 campaign cycle, a better-than-expected result for a Democrat. The Democrat is a familiar face to Georgia voters: former Governor Roy Barnes, who served the state from 1999-2003. Barnes has small leads over a trio of GOP challengers in the race to replace term-limited GOP Gov. Sonny Perdue. Barnes leads John Oxendine by a single point (40-39), while Karen Handel and Nathan Deal trail the former Democratic Governor by five points each. Worth noting: Ras also polled this race recently, and has all three GOPers in the lead.
NY-Gov: Cuomo Looks To Make Empire State A Democratic Hold
Now unencumbered by a complicated primary with an embattled Democratic incumbent, Andrew Cuomo is apparently cruising in his bid to be New York's next governor. So says Rasmussen, which gives the Democrat a twenty-five point (55-30) edge over likely GOP nominee Rick Lazio. They also test Buffalo developer Carl Paladino, who might run as a GOPer or a Teabagger. As the GOP nominee, he gets squashed by Cuomo (56-27). If they tag-team Cuomo, Cuomo still wins easily, though his vote share slips to 50%, with Lazio down to 19% and Paladino (as an Independent) down to 15%.
OK-Gov: Oklahoma Looks Like A GOP Flip, According to Rasmussen
Not that this will be a surprise to...well...just about anyone, but after eight years with Democrat Brad Henry at the helm, it looks like ruby-red Oklahoma (among the medallists in the "worst state for Obama" category) will go Republican in 2010, according to new numbers from Rasmussen. Congresswoman Mary Fallin has double digit leads over either Democratic Lt. Governor Jari Askins (51-37) or state Attorney General Drew Edmondson (51-36). The only hope for Dems (and this is even a bit of a stretch) is if somehow state legislator Randy Brogdon wins the GOP nod--the Dems are a toss-up against him.
PA-Gov: Q Poll--Corbett Leads Dems, But Margin Thinning
Quinnipiac is back in the Keystone State, and they have some interesting numbers in the gubernatorial race. While GOP state Attorney General Tom Corbett continues to lead in both the primary and general elections, his numbers have softened noticeably. In the primary, he crushes state legislator Sam Rohrer, but still only gets 43% of Republicans to commit to him (43-5). Meanwhile, in the general election, his lead over Dan Onorato has been cut almost in half, with Corbett now up by just ten points (42-32). This comes on the heels of yesterday's release, which had Democratic Senator Arlen Specter leading Republican Pat Toomey, a reversal of most recent polling on the race.
RI-Gov: Rasmussen Confirms Chafee Lead in Indie Bid
Rasmussen, as always, is a little bearish on Democratic chances here, but their new poll out of the state of Rhode Island basically tracks with other polls. They have former GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee, now running as an Independent candidate, with leads over either major Democrat running for the office. Against treasurer Frank Caprio, Chafee leads 37-27, with Republican John Robataille at 19%. With state Attorney General Patrick Lynch in the mix, Chafee's lead stretches to 38-24, with Robataille at 22%.