Just when you got used to the new schedule of the Polling and Political Wrap, another quirk develops. Don't fret: it will still be a three day a week feature. The shift is simple: instead of Monday-Wednesday-Friday, it becomes a Monday-Wednesday-Saturday feature. This allows for the ability to grab some late-breaking Friday and weekend stuff. So, hopefully you will make this a part of your weekend rotation...
THE U.S. SENATE
CO-Sen: Ras Sees Path to Victory For Dems--Through Romanoff?
In an interesting new poll out at the end of the week from Rasmussen, the prolific ones show a tightening race in Colorado for the U.S. Senate. The catch: that tight race only exists if the current challenger in the Democratic primary, former state legislator Andrew Romanoff, is the nominee. If incumbent Senator Michael Bennet holds onto the Democratic nod, he trails likely GOP nominee Jane Norton by nine points (48-39). If Romanoff somehow gets the nod, the margin gets cut to just two points (44-42). Good news for Bennet: he is now quite competitive with the other two potential GOP nominees, with numbers well within the margin of error.
CT-Sen: Nothing New--Ras Says Blumenthal Locks Down Seat for Dems
Rasmussen polls Connecticut again, and finds what they (and, to be fair to the Ras, pretty much every pollster) that has entered the Nutmeg State has found: with Richard Blumenthal as the Democratic nominee instead of incumbent Chris Dodd, the GOP does not have much much of a shot. Blumenthal leads the trio of GOP contenders by margins ranging from 26-30 points.
KY-Sen: A Very Rasmussen Poll On the Senate Race
This one won't take a great deal of explanation, because it is a very typical Rasmussen poll. Republicans win, by landslides, no matter which candidate is the GOP nominee. Rand Paul does slightly better (leading Democrat Jack Conway by 15 and Dan Mongiardo by 17), but even Trey Grayson leads by double digits (by 13-18 points).
NV-Sen: Ras Refuses to Go Teabagging in the Silver State
Rasmussen has headed back to Nevada this week to look at the U.S. Senate re-election bid of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Like other pollsters, Rasmussen has Reid well behind, with both leading Republican candidates with solid leads (thirteen points in both cases). Interestingly (or, perhaps, tellingly), Rasmussen did NOT do what other pollsters have done recently, which was to include the Tea Party's candidate (Jon Ashjian) as a third-party candidate. Why did Rasmussen avoid that trial heat? Perhaps because the other pollsters in question (GOP pollsters Public Opinion Strategies and Mason Dixon) have found that the inclusion of the Tea Party nominee might bring Reid back from the political precipice.
NJ-Sen (2012): FDU Looks Ahead, Sees Tough Rematch for Menendez
Because, I suppose, it is never too early to look ahead, Fairleigh Dickinson University polls the 2012 Senate re-election for freshman Senator Robert Menendez. When paired with his 2006 opponent, Republican Tom Kean Jr., the incumbent Democrat leads by just a single point (39-38).
THE U.S. HOUSE
IN-05: Burton Not Vulnerable to Primary, According to Burton
It's an internal poll, so salt it to taste, but new numbers from Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of the re-election campaign of longtime GOP Rep. Dan Burton shows him well ahead of the pack of Republicans eager to send him into early retirement. The poll shows Burton sitting with 43% of the vote, with the nearest opponent (former state legislator Luke Messer) way back at 9%. Burton, you will recall, had to survive the scare of his political life in 2008, when he defeated John McGoff (who runs fourth in this poll) by a mere seven-point margin (52-45).
MA-10: Delahunt Retires, Field Already Starts to Form
Shortly after the previous edition of the Wrap was put to bed, the Democrats gained another potentially intriguing open seat when seventh-term Democrat Bill Delahunt decided to retire from his Cape Cod-based 10th district. The district is, by Massachusetts standards, an attractive target for Republicans: Barack Obama only carried the 10th by a 55-43 margin while winning with 62% statewide. It was also among Scott Brown's best territories during the January special Senate election. Republicans, perhaps smelling blood, already have two fairly legit candidates in the race: state legislator Jeff Perry and former state treasurer Joe Malone (who might be hamstrung a bit by some ugly business during his term as treasurer). Democrats got their first candidate within 24 hours of the Delahunt announcement, as Norfolk DA William Keating jumped into the race. Another interesting name being bandied about on the Democratic side is Phillip Johnston, who was Delahunt's Democratic primary opponent in 1996 in a race that eventually landed in a contested recount, which Delahunt narrowly won.
OR-04: Remember When This Was Supposed to Be A Battleground?
Oh, how things have changed. A year ago, the GOP was crowing about a unique opportunity to claim a long-held Democratic seat. They had, in their minds, a first-tier candidate in Sid Leiken (the mayor of Springfield, one of the larger cities in the district). They also thought that Peter DeFazio, the longtime Democratic incumbent, would leave the seat and run for Governor instead. Well, let's see how well that turned out: Leiken, whose campaign was hamstrung by anemic fundraising and a scandal where he used campaign funds to funnel money to his mother for what may well have been fictitious services, finally gave up the ghost and dropped out on Thursday. That was followed with the announcement on Friday that DeFazio would seek re-election to the House, which was anticlimatic by this point (the rumors of his seeking the governorship abated months ago).
PA-12: Former Murtha Staffer Close to Locking Up Dem Nomination
Local Democratic leaders met earlier today to consider the candidate field to replace the late John Murtha in a special election to be held in May. Capitalizing on the momentum that he has enjoyed pretty much since he announced, former Murtha staffer Mark Critz locked down the local endorsement by a wide margin. The state committee will make the final call on the nomination, but it seems highly unlikely that they will contradict the wishes of local Dems. Critz won easily, scoring more votes than his three opponents combined. Critz has the backing of, among others, Joyce Murtha, the widow of the longtime former Congressman, who passed away last month.
Interestingly, the second-place finisher in that local Democratic gathering, Barbara Hafer, might be breaking out the napalm on the frontrunner. Just before Critz won the local Dem endorsement, a Hafer staffer was making the argument that Critz was "not electable", and would be an easy mark for a general election opponent. Remember, the two will meet in a primary for the November elections, which will be held on the same day as the special election.
A bit of trivia for a Saturday night: Name the Democrat who (not that this is being wished on Mr. Critz) won a special election, but lost his party's regular primary for the same seat, thus making his tenure in office a precious few months. A couple of hints: he eventually returned to Congress anyway, and is a candidate for office in 2010. Ready...set...GO!
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
NE-Gov: Rasmussen Says Nebraska Gov Race a Non-Starter
Ras, apparently because they already hit the other 49 states in the past few weeks, ventures into Nebraska for the weekend, and finds that Democratic businessman Mark Lakers is little match for incumbent GOP Governor Dave Heineman. The new numbers from Rasmussen shows Heineman leading Lakers by thirty-eight points (61-23).
OR-Gov: Dueling Endorsements in Dem Showdown
In what promises to be an interesting, and potentially competitive, Democratic primary for Governor in Oregon, both leading candidates can puff their chests out a bit about key endorsements they garnered over the past week. Former Governor John Kitzhaber nailed down the AFL-CIO endorsement yesterday. The glow from that endorsement was offset somewhat today, when his rival, former OR Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, earned the endorsement of the Oregon Education Association, the state's leading teachers union.
TX-Gov: Perry Leads, But Only Narrowly, According to Ras
Especially when one considers the source on this one, it is hard not to conclude that this new poll from Rasmussen is potentially very encouraging news for Democrat Bill White. Despite Perry garnering a ton of positive press for his one-round knockout of both Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and teabagger Debra Medina, he still only leads White by six points (49-43). What's more, White has a much better favorability spread (54/34) than did the incumbent (54-46).
WY-Gov: Governor Dave Decides Not Buck Term Limits
In a move that almost certainly will cede the Wyoming governor's mansion to the GOP, popular Democratic Governor David Freudenthal (affectionately known as "Governor Dave") decided not to seek a third term as Governor. There had been rampant speculation that Freudenthal was going to go to court to challenge the state's term limit laws for the office of Governor, a challenge that Freudenthal, even as he decided to stand down, thought he could win. Without Governor Dave in the field, most of the action here is on the GOP side, where one of the names mentioned most often is Colin Simpson, the son of former Senator Alan Simpson who recently served as the Speaker of the Wyoming House of Representatives.