This is the sixth in a series of diaries I am doing for the UK election to be held on May 6. I’ve covered the rules of the election in the first two, and the manifestoes (platforms) of the three main parties in three others. In this diary, I want to look at the UK election in terms of geography. You see, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (to use its full legal name) is not a homogeneous electorate. There are, in fact, at least four distinct nations within the UK: the English, the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish in Ulster. In fact, if you want to slice it even finer, England itself is composed of several different nations, there are at least two sets of Scots and Northern Irish, and probably two or three different varieties of Welshman. Just as Texans don’t vote like Californians, Highland Scots don’t vote like Englishmen in Kent. This isn’t meant to predict how the election will come out so much as I hope to illustrate what the local politics are (since all politics are local).
We’ll begin in Scotland for no other reason than one set of my great-grand parents left there at an early age. Scotland has had its own parliament since the passage of the Scotland Act in 1998, and that parliament has responsibility for Scotland’s health care system, its housing policy, environment issues north of the border and the education system. In the Scottish parliament, the Scottish Nationalists (SNP) are the government, with the Liberal Democrats the second biggest party. Labour is third, and the Conservatives won just one seat in the 2005 Scottish election. So when it comes to the UK election, you can’t really judge Scotland’s intentions without a Scots-only poll.
After the last Westminster election (that is a UK-wide general election for seats in the London Parliament and not the one in Edinburgh), Labour had the most Scottish seats (including Prime Minister Brown’s) with 41 of the 59 Scottish seats. The LibDems were second at 11, the SNP won 6, and the Tories won 1 (up from 0!).
This time, a few of Labour’s big guns are retiring (Des Browne, John Reid and John McFall) which may open up their seats. The SNP are hoping to take 20 seats, and the LibDems and Tories just want to build on what they have. The most recent Scottish-only poll I’ve seen was at the beginning of March, where Labour had 34%, SNP 32%, Tories third at 17% and the LibDems at 12%. This would give Labour 37 seats, the SNP 10, the LibDems 10, and the Tories would get 2 (no proportional representation here – because the Tory vote is spread out and thin, they aren’t going to win much).
The main issue that remains in Westminster is the economy, and the Scots have traditionally backed Labour for that reason (shipyards, steel mills and coal mines used to employ thousands). Labour will suffer a bit for the last 13 years, but I don’t see Scotland abandoning Labour.
One interesting issue remains full independence, what the hard-core SNP voters want. It holds appeal for about 30% of the voters. Nevertheless, a YouGov poll suggests that 30% of Scots who don’t back independence would be "more likely to consider it" if the Conservatives win this election and form the next government.
In Wales, the situation is similar to Scotland’s as well as being completely different. There is a Welsh Assembly, but it has less power than the Scottish Parliament. For example, the Scots can vote taxes on themselves. The Welsh get their money from the Treasury and only have the power to decide how it gets spent. The areas that have been devolved to Wales include: agriculture, education, environment, health, social welfare, and culture including the Welsh language.
In the 60-seat Assembly, Welsh Labour with 26 seats is supported by the nationalists (Plaid Cymru in Welsh) with 14. The Welsh Tories have 13 (including a man with a most unWelsh name Mohammed Asghar, who was elected as a nationalist), the Welsh LibDems 6, and one independent sits in the Assembly. In the 2005 Westminster vote, Wales returned 29 Labour MPs, with four LibDems, three Conservatives, three Plaid Cymru and one independent.
In the Westminster Parliament this time, the 40 Welsh seats will breakdown roughly as the division of seats in the Assembly have. The big issue is the economy and public spending, and much of Wales has always been Labour country (coal mines). Indeed, there were no Welsh Tory MPs after the 1997 and 2001 elections. However, the Conservatives gained the most votes in last year’s European Elections, so perhaps there is a comeback of sorts there. Plaid should hold its own, given some Welshmen are tired of Labour but would rather die than vote Tory. Wales will be interesting to watch because there are constituencies where you have a genuine four-way fight. Labour is strongest in the north-east and the south, while the Plaid Cymru are strongest in the northwest (where most who speak Welsh as their mother tongue live) and a few spots in the southwest. The LibDems could lose their Cardiff seat (one of four seats the city has).
Northern Ireland is a world unto itself, a country where the Battle of the Boyne in 1690 is still being fought between the supporters of Catholic King James II and Protestant King William III. However, there are three factors that make NI in this Westminster election intriguing. First, the Tories have a formal deal with the Ulster Unionist Party. By and large, NI politics has been the bailiwick of local parties (unionist or republican), which in addition to the UUP are the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Sinn Fein (the political wing of the old Provisional IRA), the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP, a sensible bunch of moderates) and the Alliance Party (which is aligned with the LibDems sort of and which includes both Protestants and Catholics – or as I think of them, the Reasonable Party). Second, with the recent devolution of justice powers to the province, the Westminster election matters a bit less to people in NI that it used to. Third, if there is a hung parliament nine or ten unionist seats could put Mr. Cameron in power. The issue here may not be so much the economy as which party is best suited to preserve or abolish the union.
As for England itself, this isn’t really so much a three-way race as a set of different two-way races. For example, in the Southwest (Cornwall, Devonshire, Somerset, Dorset and Wiltshire -- combined they are that finger-thingy at the bottom of the island that points to the Americas), it is the LibDems against Labour. Central London tends to be a straight Labour-Conservative fight, but in the five LibDem constituencies south of the Thames, it’s the Tories who could win the seat. In the cities of the north, it’s Labour against either the LibDems or the Conservatives depending on which city and which constituency.
England also may elect a few MPs from the less established parties. Green Party leader Caroline Lucas could overtake Labour and the Tories in Brighton Pavilion, while the anti-European United Kingdom Independence Party's [UKIP] Nigel Farage is the only opposition candidate standing against Commons Speaker John Bercow in Buckinghamshire (usually, the Speaker is unopposed by tradition).
The British National Party (the George Wallace with the accent crowd) its taking aim at the Labour heartlands in Yorkshire and the north-west where it could do well due to economic decline and relatively large immigrant populations. Also in the East End of London, BNP leader Nick Griffin is contesting Barking and Dagenham –on the 50 member local council, the BNP has 11 seats, second only to Labour.
Another factor that I hope to examine in the next few days is the role class still plays in British politics. It remains the biggest social issue in the UK as far as I am concerned, and while much has been said about creating a more egalitarian meritocracy, the right accent still matters.
While the health service and political reform will matter, the economy will be the single most important issue in England.
The debate is on shortly, and that will be the subject of my next diary.