With the polls in the UK showing a three-way toss up for control of parliament, I think it's time to examine the race outside of the vacuum of UK politics and to explore whether or not this could be part of a larger trend.
Nick Clegg's polling numbers first began to really jump just after the televised debate a week ago. If you watched the debate, while Clegg may have been shorter on specifics than the other two, he also didn't wage many personal attacks, instead choosing to rail against both candidates and their venom for each other. Clegg presented himself not as a leader, but as an idea. He was able to make a succinct argument that he represents the new middle ground in British politics, and that he could be the one to restore faith in government after the MP scandal of last year.
Voters responded to his preformance, so much so that his Liberal Democrats party now has a legitimate chance to at least take home the plurality of the popular vote, which would be a massive step forward for them and their reformist agenda.
Now, let's take a look at American politics. There may be room for a large 3rd Party to emerge during this election cycle. let's look at a few scenarios that could make it happen:
- Charlie Crist becomes an Independent
- John McCain and Blanche Lincoln lose their primaries. McCain remembers when he used to try to get things done in a bipartisan way and goes on the war path to destroy the Democrats and Republicans who have beaten him in consecutive elections, and Lincoln just wants the attention, so they both run as Independents.
- Michael Bloomberg keep getting his undies in a bundle over Wall Street reform and decides to help fund a few Independent bids, as well as run for President as an Independent in 2012
- Evan Bayh leaves the Democratic Party and joins forces with them
- Lincoln Chaffee, while not aligning with many of these people philosophically, chooses to join up with them to give himself more institutional support
Crist, McCain, Lincoln, Bloomberg, Bayh, and Chaffee, as well as many other politicians across the country looking to ride the Independent wave, join forces and create a fairly formidable political alliance that could continue to draw in more support as the anti-Democrats and anti-Republicans party, railing against partisan politics and spewing anti-establishment rhetoric, claiming that they are the new "third way" of getting things done.
They draw support by being having several politicians with established bases of support, drawing in Republicans disgruntled with the RNC's money problems and the crazy ass teabaggers, while at the same time drawing Blue Dog, pro-life, anti-social services Democrats.
While they may not win all of their races, they will undoubtedly become a huge player in national politics, and could have a huge impact at least on the 2010 and 2012 elections. Could one of these leaders emerge as America's version Nick Clegg? It would take a whole lot of different things falling in place, but after seeing how the electorate is shifting and how British voters are reacting to Clegg, it may not be as far fetched as it seems.