A brief vacation for the Wrap this weekend, but here we are, back at the keyboard. And with the absence of the weekend edition, it is safe to assume that the Monday edition of the Wrap is going to be positively bursting at the seams.
With that in mind, let's get after it...
THE U.S. SENATE
IN-Sen: NRA Guns For Coats In Upcoming GOP Senate Primary
With about a week to go until a competitive GOP primary for the U.S. Senate in the Hoosier State, the National Rifle Association is taking aim at an old Republican foe. They will send out a mailer this week reminding voters of the impure voting record of Coats on 2nd Amendment issues. The crux of the discord, apparently, was Coats' decision, over a decade-and-a-half ago, to support the Brady Bill. Coats' main opposition in the primary comes from lightly funded (though ideologically pure) former Congressman John Hostettler.
NV-Sen: Tea Party Propping Up Underdog GOP Candidate
In another example of how outside conservative groups might unwittingly benefit the object of their scorn (national Democrats), the group Tea Party Express is wading into the competitive GOP Senate primary in Nevada. The interesting thing is that they are wading into the primary on behalf of Sharron Angle, a former Assemblywoman generally considered to be the third most viable option in a general election against Majority Leader Harry Reid. Indeed, a new poll out from the Nevada News Bureau finds Angle (17%) in third place in a prospective GOP primary, trailing Sue Lowden (41%) and Danny Tarkanian (24%).
UT-Sen: Numbers Looking Very Dire For Bennett In New Poll
An interesting quirk of Utah election law might spell doom for incumbent Republican Senator Bob Bennett. A new poll out of Utah GOP voters, taken for Deseret News, finds that 41% of GOP voters will absolutely not vote for Bennett in any circumstances. The problem for Bennett? You must have support from at least 60% of voters to avoid any potential primary. Absent that support, Bennett will have to roll the dice on an activist-driven primary, which would almost certainly be curtains for the incumbent. Therefore, Bennett's most likely path to victory involves converting voters who have already made up their minds in the negative.
WA-Sen: SUSA Makes Ras Look Rosy About Murray Re-Elex Prospects
It is an odd day on the Wrap where the "wet blanket" polling award for Democratic prospects doesn't go to the folks at Ras. But SurveyUSA takes the gold medal by a mile, with their poll late last week showing incumbent Democratic Sen. Patty Murray down double digits to potential challenger Dino Rossi (52-42), and only leading a raft of little known Republicans by margins ranging from 1-4 points. Rossi is said to be nearing a decision on whether or not to make a third stab at statewide elected office (he lost races for Governor in 2004 and 2008).
THE U.S. HOUSE
FL-08: GOP Finally Gets Their Man in Grayson Race
After it seemed a few months back that he would be sitting out the 2010 electoral cycle, former state senator Dan Webster reversed course and announced a bid for Congress late last week. Webster will be challenging fiery freshman Democrat Alan Grayson. Webster faces a multi-candidate GOP field, including several aspirants who might have stood aside if Webster had made his intentions known earlier. Webster is getting a late start, and the object of his general election ambition (Grayson) is sitting on a monster warchest after a nearly seven-figure first quarter of fundraising.
FL-22: Internal Poll Gives GOP Lead in Ron Klein's District
Take it with a dollop of salt, what with it being a candidate's internal poll and all: a new internal poll for the campaign of GOP contender Allan West shows the Republican leading sophomore incumbent Ron Klein by a two-point margin (44-42). The two squared off back in 2008, and Klein was victorious by a ten-point margin (55-45).
WV-01: Is A Three-Decade Incumbent In Serious Danger?
In a diary over a FDL which quotes The Hill and other sources, there is apparently a growing sense that fourteen-term incumbent Democrat Alan Mollohan is in serious jeopardy of being defeated in the Democratic primary by state senator Mike Oliverio. According to the article, in-state polling (although it is unclear whether the polling in question is internal, or for a public client) has Mollohan down in the high single digits to Oliverio. Mollohan countered with an internal showing him up over Oliverio by high single digits. Judging from the issues profile on his website, it would appear that Oliverio would qualify as a pretty conservative Democrat.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
IL-Gov: Democratic Castoff Plans Indie Bid For Governor
This has the faint whiff of scorn/vengeance, and it remains to be seen if it has an impact on the gubernatorial election in the Land of Lincoln. Scott Lee Cohen, who won the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor in an upset and found his nomination shot out from under him after a metric ton of ugly news came out about him, is now contemplating a bid for Governor as an Independent. On paper, one would think that a high-profile (albeit for all the wrong reasons) Democratic Indie candidate would be bad for incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn. However, it is equally likely that Cohen can split the anti-incumbent vote with Republican Bill Brady. The net result? Likely a wash, and perhaps less than meets the eye--it's hard to imagine him scoring a big proportion of the vote.
MI-Gov: Could There Be A Kevorkian Factor in Gubernatorial Race?
Democrats could not possibly be wishing for this to happen, but a new poll out today from Michigan pollsters EPIC-MRA seems to hint at a potentially damaging scenario for Michigan Democrats. The poll, of the pending Democratic primary, tested the possible entrance of controversial Kevorkian attorney (and 1998 Democratic nominee) Geoffrey Fieger into the race. As of right now, he holds the lead (28%), with a modest lead over House Speaker Andy Dillon (20%) and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (13%). Fieger was turned away easily in his 1998 bid, defeated by double digits by incumbent GOP Governor John Engler.
MN-Gov: Dem Field Thins Dramatically After Convention
In something of a surprise, the Democratic Convention ended in Minnesota with the candidate that polls showed as the most electable Democrat no longer in the race. Minneapolis Mayor RT Rybak did not survive the weekend, as former House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher emerged as the choice of the convention. She will now face former US Senator Mark Dayton, and former state legislator Matt Etenza, and a host of lesser-known candidates in the primary.
NH-Gov: Second Poll Seems to Confirm Lynch Vulnerability
After cruising to re-election the last two cycles, a new poll out from PPP confirms a finding from Rasmussen: Democratic Governor John Lynch is feeling some heat this time around. The pollster has Lynch under 50% against all prospective Republicans, after two cycles in a row when he toppled 70% of the vote. Lynch draws 47% of the vote against all three Republican prospects: former statewide official John Stephen comes closest, trailing Lynch by eleven points (47-36).
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
The Ras-A-Palooza fully returns to form to open this week, with GOP affirmations from the Dakotas to the shores of Maryland.
FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R) 37%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 22%
GA-Sen: Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) 51%, Michael Thurmond (D) 35%
MD-Gov: Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) 47%, Robert Ehrlich (R) 44%
ND-AL: Rick Berg (R) 49%, Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 45%
SD-Gov: Dennis Daugaard (R) 53%, Scott Heidepriem (D) 33%
SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 41%, Dave Knudson (R) 41%
SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 46%, Gordon Howie (R) 31%
SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 45%, Chris Nelson (R) 41%
SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 48%, Blake Curd (R) 36%
SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 50%, Kristi Noem (R) 35%
WI-Gov: Scott Walker (R) 46%, Tom Barrett (D) 44%
WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 46%, Mark Neumann (D) 46%
WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 49%, Terrance Wall (R) 43%
WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 49%, Dave Westlake (R) 38%
WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 48%, Richard Leinenkugel (R) 37%
