The third and final debate among the leaders of Britain’s main political parties was a make-or-break event for Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Trailing badly in the polls, indeed expected to come third, Labour needed a big night from the PM. The party didn’t get it. Mr. Brown clearly lost the debate, and worse, he didn’t give the undecided voters any reason to consider backing a party that has governed for 13 years. What was particularly sad for his supporters was that the subject of the debate was "The Economy," which is Mr. Brown’s strong suit.
As many as 9.1 million Britons were watching the debate, despite ITV running the ever-popular prime time soap "Coronation Street" which 6.7 million watched (why, oh why, is this piffle still broadcast? That 6.7 million should never be allowed to vote). Over on Five, the Uefa Europa League game between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid drew 3.4 million (Well done, Fulham, who go to the final having won the match 2-1). The audience was there, but Gordo failed to connect, again. You can see it for yourself here.
Conservative Party leader David Cameron appeared to win according to most of the pundits, followed closely by Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats. Others had it a draw, and a couple even said Mr. Clegg carried the day. One instant poll had Mr. Brown in second to Mr. Cameron, but one may well take this as an outlier.
What disappointed many viewers was a lack of specificity on taxes and spending cuts. In fairness, Mr. Clegg had it right when he said that some of the budget balancing actions needed just couldn’t be fleshed out before the election. But that ignores what Mervyn King (the big boss at the Bank of England, the counterpart to the Chairman of the FED) said, namely that taxes would have to go up 6 pence in the pound. The Times reported, "American economist David Hale, who passed on the remarks in an Australian television interview. Mr Hale, who has known Mr King for many years, was commenting on debt levels in major economies when he turned to the British election. ‘I saw the Governor of the Bank of England last week when I was in London, and he told me whoever wins this election will be out of power for a whole generation because of how tough the fiscal austerity will have to be,’ he said."
Everything I have learned about economics and British politics suggests that Mr. King is absolutely correct. No politician of any ability is going to level with the people to that degree. By the same token, the detailed knowledge of the British economic mess all three men displayed suggests that they know very well what they will have to do if they win.
While opinion polls won’t have felt the impact of the debate yet (and probably won’t until Monday to get a good sample), I saw nothing that will change the order of the parties in the popular vote. I figure it's still the Tories, the LibDems and Labour in that order. On seats, pull a number out of a hat, and you may well be right.
There was a rather interesting piece in today’s Times by someone from my political past, Daniel Finkelstein, who suggested that the Tories would squeak through to the 326 needed to form a majority government. Now, cards on the table time, he used to work in the Conservative Party’s policy department before he became a journalist. That said, most of the models used by pundits focus on the swing from one party to another but do so on a nation wide basis. Truthfully, about 500 seats of the 650 in the House of Commons are not going to change hands. They never do. The marginals (what Americans would call swing districts) are where the action is, and this is where Dan’s model (actually cooked up by Dr Henry Stott, Dr Ian Graham and Keith Simpson) puts its focus. According to him, "The model is built by looking at the way voters move between parties in different types of seat. Distinguishing between those seats that are marginals and those that are not boosted the Tory seat count."
I don’t know enough about the underlying assumptions made to say whether their model is on target or not. But I do think a few things favor the Tories at this stage. First off, there is a segment of Tory support that is publicly ashamed of being Conservative (rightly so I would say), but in the polling booth, they’ll put the "X" next to a Cameroonian. Second, the Tories will get their vote out. They’re enthusiastic. They’ve been waiting 13 years for this. Third, the Liberal Democratic voters are not all hard-cord LibDems; I fully expect 3-5% of LibDem support to evaporate (it always does, and after almost 30 years of supporting the party, I have been disappointed after the count far too often to believe otherwise).
There are also a few things weighing against the Conservatives. First, their vote is, as I have repeatedly said in this series of diaries, too concentrated to really pile up victories in marginals. Second, the postal votes have already started coming back to the electoral officials – meaning that the usual Lib-Dem disappointment might not be so great since the votes are being cast before the traditional final week fade. And as I am posting this, The Guardian has endorsed the Liberal Democrats! Third, tactical voting will likely be the name of the game, and you’ll see a lot of Labour voters going for the Liberal Democrats and vice versa, but very few will vote tactically Tory.
So, now it’s time for some fun.
The Telegraph has a great tool that helps you figure out what party lines up with your political beliefs. For the record, I am 6% more Liberal Democrat than I am Scottish Nationalist. For some of these, you need to enter a valid British postcode. I prefer WC2A 2AE, where the London School of Economics lies, or the one for the last couple of flats I had as a student: SW7 5HR or W2 5NB (I couldn’t afford either of them now!).
Also, there’s a website that is working for proportional representation, and it has a fun site that shows how gerrymandered some of Britain is. For fun, type in Edinburgh (Scotland’s capital city), and you’ll get about 5 different seats from which to choose. The differences in voters’ influence here is astonishing.
Polling Day is May 6, and polling station opening hours are 7 am – 10 pm. Not only will the Brits elect a new Parliament, they will be voting for their local councils. Normally, these are a bell-weather for the general election, but this time around, they will be an afterthought.
I suspect there won’t be another diary from me until Monday, when I expect some decent polling data.