Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/10/2010-5/13/2010. Registered Voters. MoE 2.8% (Last week's results in parentheses):
|
FAVORABLE |
UNFAVORABLE |
NET CHANGE |
| PRESIDENT OBAMA |
55 (55) |
40 (41) |
+1 |
|
|
|
|
| PELOSI: |
39 (40) |
51 (51) |
-1 |
| REID: |
31 (30) |
57 (58) |
+2 |
| McCONNELL: |
26 (25) |
61 (60) |
0 |
| BOEHNER: |
23 (23) |
56 (57) |
+1 |
|
|
|
|
| CONGRESSIONAL DEMS: |
40 (39) |
56 (57) |
+2 |
| CONGRESSIONAL GOPS: |
24 (23) |
64 (65) |
+2 |
| |
|
|
|
| DEMOCRATIC PARTY: |
42 (42) |
52 (53) |
+1 |
| REPUBLICAN PARTY: |
32 (33) |
63 (64) |
0 |
Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.
On the surface, there appears to be very little to report in this week's incarnation of the Daily Kos "State of the Nation" tracking poll. After all, there is minimal movement this week, and there is no clear partisan pattern to the incremental rises and falls which accompany this week's poll.
A little bit beneath the surface, however, there are some things that are happening which should bear more attention as the summer approaches.
1. The Right Track/Wrong Track Indicator
This week, we see another incremental two point bump in the right track/wrong track metric. This week, the net difference is a negative 11, with 43% saying America is on the right track and 54% saying we are on the wrong track. This is the highest percentage of Americans citing optimism in the direction of the country in over ten months. You have to go back to the July 9th poll in 2009 to find the right track numbers at 43% or better.
This is also the fourth consecutive week that the right track/wrong track indicator has improved. If the national mood improves, that could go an awfully long way towards minimizing the losses for the Democratic Party come November.
2. Voter Intensity
After spending a couple of weeks spreading back apart, the "enthusiasm gap" between Democrats and Republicans narrowed noticeably this week. Last week, that gap was ten points (with 75% of Republicans indicating certainty or likelihood of voting, versus 65% of Democrats). This week, that gap was whittled down to seven points. Democrats basically held steady (64%), but the GOP gave back some of their recent gains in intensity, with 71% of Republicans indicating their strong propensity for voting.
That doesn't mean that all of the news on the voter intensity is good for the Democrats. In the past month, there has been some slippage with two key demographics for the Democratic Party. Both Black voters and voters aged 18-29 have seen some slippage in their voter intensity over the past month. Whereas the likely/unlikely to vote ratio for black voters was 46/31 a month ago, it now lies at 45/38. And while the number of young voters claiming to be likely voters has gone up over the past month (from 36% to 44%), the number claiming to be unlikely to vote or certain not to vote have grown even faster (from 30% to 40%).
3. The Health Care Bill
Shortly after its passage in March, DK/R2K began to poll nationally on what kind of candidate votes would prefer: one who supported and wanted to work with the new HIR bill, or one who wanted to junk it altogether.
There has been some gradual movement here, as well, and it has been in the favor of those who support the recent reform.
Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports and will work to improve the new health care reform law, or a candidate who will work to repeal it completely? (4/15/10 in parentheses)
SUPPORT 52 (46)
REPEAL 41 (37)
While both sides have seen incremental gains, the margin between support and repeal has held steady, and even moved a few points in favor of support for candidates willing to stand by the reforms.
This is also true among the critical corps of Independent voters. While indies preferred support to repeal by three points last month, that margin has crept up to six points today.
The bottom line is this: there are still plenty of sources of apprehension for Democrats in this election cycle. The intensity gap, while not as bad as it has been, is still very much apparent. The generic ballot is still quite close (Democrats hold a lead, but only a two-point advantage), which indicates a certain number of GOP pickups in the House are still inevitable.
But there is also some reason to suspect that the smattering of stories about signs of a political climate change are not just the chattering of overly optimistic Democrats. There is some evidence in the data here that should at least bear close observation as Spring turns into Summer.
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