Tomorrow (today in HK time) people of Hong Kong will have an opportunity to voice their opposition to Beijing's hold on Hong Kong's politics by participating in this city-wide by-election of the city's legislative council.
When many of us think about Hong Kong, we think of it as an open, wealthy, and modern society. Hong Kong's GDP per capita is $ 42,700, which is comparable to US's per capita GDP of $ 46,400. It is higher than Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. It is 7 times higher than in Mainland China across the border.
Despite the high per capita GDP, Hong Kong is also the most wealth concentrated society in all of Asia and of the developed world. Hong Kong's real estate is among the most expensive in the world, yet the city does not have a minimum wage. Hong Kong's political system is not fully democratic. Half of the legislators are directly elected, but the rest are not. The Chief Executive (essentially the mayor/governor) is chosen by a 800 member mostly pro-Beijing panel.
Ever since the return of Hong Kong to Chinese control in 1997, there has been a movement to create a democratic government, which is promised by Hong Kong's constitution. There are two political fractions, the pro-Beijing fraction that calls for a gradual transition to democracy without a timetable, and a pro-democratic fraction and wants a concrete timetable calling for direct election sooner. The central government in Beijing has told Hong Kong that it can't have democracy right away, but "can" have direct election by 2017.
To protest against the low progress towards democratic reform, 5 city legislators resigned their seats to trigger a city-wide by-election. They now run for the same seat they resigned so can put their pro-democracy agenda on the ballot (a common tactic in the UK). This de-facto referendum is the first anywhere in People's Republic of China. This referendum was not welcomed by the communist government, which called this action unconstitutional (although cannot provide any legal basis and not able to stop this legally). The pro-Beijing fraction is boycotting this election and calling it a waste of taxpayer funds. The Hong Kong government, while conducting this election as required by law, is doing all they can to discourage people from voting.
What the pro-democratic fraction calls for is make the entire city's legislature directly elected. Today, only half of it is directly elected through 5 districts. The rest is called functional constituency, which is supposed to represent sectors of the economy. There are legislators representing businesses, education, etc.
The major problem with functional constituency is that they are not uniformly elected. Many seats are basically chosen by the corporations. People who are employed in the restaurant industry do not have a vote on someone who represents the restaurant sector. Only their bosses do.
Although corporate influence is common even with democratic governments (look at the US Senate, for example), functional constituency essentially provide special interests free lunch. They don't need to spend money on campaigns to elect politicians supporting their interest. They can send in their lobbyists to seat side by side with directly elected members.
Because of the boycott by the pro-government fraction, the turnout is expected to be low. Most political observers expect that the resigned legislators should win back their seats easily. Given the lack of true competition, the supporters are using voter turnout as a measure of success. Normally a truly competitive election (which occurred 3 years ago after someone died) had a voter turnout of 50%. This one pollings suggest a turnout of 20-30%.
However, a modest turnout can translate into effective voice against the government. In the past, pro-democratic fraction often use protests and marches to show public opposition to government's policies. The largest march was in 2003 with half of million people took to the street opposing a bill that would limit their political freedom. With this election, people can spend 30 minutes or less to vote in their neighborhood, rather than spending a day traveling and marching. This election will also produce a result that cannot be disputed. With marches, supporters and government tend to have different counts of participants. Public polls also produce different numbers too and is not an effective substitute for elections (duh).
Beijing is opposing this because this election could open up a floodgate for other "referendums" challenging the government's positions. It does not like any political process it can't predict or control. The present communist government is very pro-corporation and has been unwilling to end direct corporate influence in government.
Some political observers say that if the turn out is very low, it means that they accept corporate control, and can signal to Beijing, and perhaps other undemocratic governments around the world, that Hong Kong style of corporate control is a legitimate alternative to western style democracy.
This election is also a test of the "one country-two systems" concept. On one hand, the Hong Kong government is conducting this legally required election, despite the fact that Beijing called it unconstitutional. On the other hand, the government is also doing all it legally can to make it insignificant in an attempt to reduce turnout. Signs and banners promoting this election were intentionally placed in less visible areas. Election announcements also removed the phase "let's vote." The Chief Executive also announced late last night that he and the rest of his lieutenants will not vote in this election.
As someone who was born in Hong Kong and spent my childhood there. I am particularly ashamed that HKers are basically second class citizens despite all their wealth and education (many are bilingual). For a leader of a city to avoid an election and ignore the legitimate public voice is also shameful. Despite the government's rejection, the next day's election will be significant, even if it may not have any immediate effects. The government can no longer claim that it follows the will of the people if the election outcome shows otherwise.