We knew this moment was coming, it always does, the moment when a young president is presented his first major national security challenge. President Obama's moment has arrived...Mr. President, meet Kim Jong Il.
"Where are the carriers", that quintessential question that presidents invariably ask at a time of global crisis. This is one of those moments for Mr. Obama. The Dear Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), aka North Korea, has thrown down the gauntlet and is making a calculated decision that the United States military is too weak, President Obama too inexperienced and the cost of military action too high to challenge the DPRK at this time...Kim Jong Il could be wrong on all three points.
On the night of March 26, a South Korean Navy corvette, the Cheonan, was on patrol in the Yellow Sea, near the disputed border and demilitarized zone that separates the two countries, when an explosion ripped into the warship causing the vessel to sink and killing 46 ROK (Republic of Korea) sailors.[1]
On May 20, the South Korean Ministry of National Defense[2] issued a report stating that a torpedo sunk the Cheonan;
The Joint Civilian-Military Investigation Group(JIG) conducted its investigation with 25 experts from 10 top Korean expert agencies, 22 military experts, 3 experts recommended by the National Assembly, and 24 foreign experts constituting 4 support teams from the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Kingdom of Sweden. The JIG is composed of four teams--Scientific Investigation Team, Explosive Analysis Team, Ship Structure Management Team, and Intelligence Analysis Team.
...The JIG assesses that a strong underwater explosion generated by the detonation of a homing torpedo below and to the left of the gas turbine room caused Republic of Korea Ship (ROKS) "Cheonan" to split apart and sink.
The basis of our assessment that the sinking was caused by a torpedo attack is as follows:
-- Precise measurement and analysis of the damaged part of the hull indicates that a shockwave and bubble effect caused significant upward bending of the CVK(Center Vertical Keel), compared to its original state, and shell plate was steeply bent, with some parts of the ship fragmented.
-- On the main deck, fracture occurred around the large openings used for maintenance of equipment in the gas turbine room and significant upward deformation is present on the port side. Also, the bulkhead of the gas turbine room was significantly damaged and deformed.
-- The bottoms of the stern and bow sections at the failure point were bent upward. This also proves that an underwater explosion took place.
-- Through a thorough investigation of the inside and outside of the ship, we have found evidence of extreme pressure on the fin stabilizer, a mechanism to reduce significant rolling of the ship; water pressure and bubble effects on the bottom of the hull; and wires cut with no traces of heat. All these point to a strong shockwave and bubble effect causing the splitting and the sinking of the ship.
...Based on all such relevant facts and classified analysis, we have reached the clear conclusion that ROKS "Cheonan" was sunk as the result of an external underwater explosion caused by a torpedo made in North Korea. The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korean submarine.
There is no other plausible explanation.
Did Kim Jong Il order a DPRK attack on an ROK warship? That thought seems to be what's gaining traction.
Tensions in the region are rising to levels not seen in at least a decade. President Obama has ordered the U.S. military to prepare for any possible aggression by DPRK forces and be prepared to defend South Korea in the event of a military attack by the North.[3] Kim Jong Il has also ordered his military to be ready for battle and threats continue to come from Pyongyang;[4]
North Korea shows no signs of flinching in what is increasingly a battle of nerves with South Korea.
Pyongyang issued a flurry of threats during the day. It accused South Korea of dispatching "dozens" of warships across the maritime border and said that it would "put into force practical military measures to defend its waters.'"
North Korea said it had given permission for its soldiers to shoot at South Korean loudspeakers — a response to an announcement Monday that Seoul would resume broadcasting propaganda across the demilitarized zone that divides the peninsula.
The strongest measure, announced late in the day, was the severing of all relations and communications with South Korea. As a practical matter, that would mean closing an industrial park in Kaesong, just north of the DMZ, which was once the showcase for cooperation between the Koreas. More than half a century after the 1950-53 Korean War, there is still no telephone or postal service between the countries.
The threats looked like a tried-and-true North Korean maneuver — escalating the tensions to remind South Korea how vulnerable its economy is to any hint of renewed conflict on the peninsula. The Korean won dropped to its lowest level in 10 months and stocks throughout Asia sunk in part on fears of war.[4]
South Korea, for its part, has resume cross border broadcasts that were suspended as a good will gesture toward the North in 2004 and like the United States and the DPRK, ROK forces have been told to be prepared for war;
As part of its propaganda offensive, South Korea’s military transmitted Western music, news and comparisons between the South and the totalitarian North. They also plan to launch leaflets by balloons and use other methods to inform North Koreans about the ship sinking. But they have been warned by the North that any propaganda facilities installed in the demilitarised zone will be fired upon.[6]
The four-hour radio program yesterday evening included a speech by South Korean President Lee Myung Bak outlining his government’s response to the March 26 sinking, which an international panel concluded was caused by a North Korean torpedo. The South, which lost 46 sailors in the attack, will seek more United Nations Security Council sanctions, halt most trade, and bar North Korean vessels from its waters.[5]
"We have always tolerated North Korea’s brutality, time and again," Lee said yesterday. "Now, things are different."[5]
Kim Jong Il may have staked his fortune on the belief the U.S. military involvement in two active conflicts would cause President Obama to think twice before engaging a third active front, but analysis of current DPRK capabilities may signal an overreach by the North. The United States still has a formidable conventional capability, even after nearly 10 years of sustained combat. A war on the peninsula just might play to the very strength of the U.S. military. It would be the very type of warfare that this country does best - force on force conventional warfare. The type of warfare that would allow U.S. warplanners to use all of the "tools in the toolbox", from B-2s to cruise missiles to combined arms operations.
That's the fight the DOD planned all through the Cold War. A fight were U.S. forces can unleash a panoply of smart, advanced weapon systems that are virtually unmatched in their lethality but are hindered during MOUT (Military Operations in Urban Terrain) operations because of the risk of collateral damage. The two current conflicts in Iraq and Afghanstan prevent this type of warfare, but in a all-out conflict with the North, the U.S. would be able to quickly seize control of the air space and then systematically begin to dismantle DPRK forces with precision munitions, unhindered, as U.S. forces were able to do in the first Gulf War.
Is Mr. Obama experienced enough to guide the U.S. through this crisis? We will know the answer to that question very soon. But just like John F. Kennedy found out during the Cuban Missile Crisis, there is nothing that can prepare a president for this moment.
Some Americans will undoubtedly ask, "is one small South Korean warship worth all-out war?" That question remains to be answered as well, but early indications from Washington seems to suggest that, without a doubt, this President is prepared for battle.
Sources:
[1] Q&A: Cheonan sinking
http://www.atomiurl.com/...
[2] defense-aerospace.com
Investigation Result on the Sinking of ROKS "Cheonan"
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/...
[3] Reuters
Obama tells military: prepare for North Korea aggression
by Jeff Mason WASHINGTON Mon May 24, 2010 2:05am EDT
http://www.reuters.com/...
[4] Los Angeles Times
North Korea cutting all ties with South Korea
By Barbara Demick, Los Angeles Times
May 25, 2010 | 3:01 p.m.
http://www.latimes.com/...
[5] Businessweek
S. Korea Beams Pop to North, Seeks Ship Sanctions (Update1)
By Bomi Lim May 24, 2010, 10:37 PM EDT
http://www.businessweek.com/...
[6] Express.co.uk
N KOREA'S 1.2M FORCES TOLD: PREPARE FOR WAR
by Jane Wharton, Wed, May 26, 2010
http://www.express.co.uk/...