We start accelerating towards the holiday weekend with this top o'the morning edition of the Wrap (necessitated by some gremlins with internet access on Thursday for yours truly).
We have another one bitin' the dust in Wisconsin, some nice polling data out of Connecticut, and some less-nice data out of New Mexico. Add to that yet another example of Joe Lieberman being a complete ass (example #7492, for those of you scoring at home), and we have ourselves a nice little political smorgasboard here on the almost-weekend edition of the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
AK-Sen: Murkowski draws Democratic challenger?
It looks like Lisa Murkowski's path to re-election might be getting at least slightly more complicated. Democrats apparently have found a reasonable candidate to challenge the Republican incumbent. Scott McAdams, a rural Democrat who serves as the mayor of Sitka in the state's panhandle, is the man rumored to be considering making the jump. He won't confirm it, but does hint at a forthcoming announcement. Murkowski won a tough election race in an excellent Republican year (2004), defeating former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles.
CT-Sen: Amid strong polls, Blumenthal might have a Lieberman issue
After a horrific week last week, it must be said that this week has been a pretty rosy one for Democratic standard-bearer Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut. His likely Republican challenger, Linda McMahon, is in the midst of an intraparty assault from a former foe (Rob Simmons) who is not particularly bullish on her chances. On top of that, new data out yesterday morning from Quinnipiac has Blumenthal, post-drama, absolutely crushing McMahon (56-31), an outcome only marginally better for the Republican than the 30+ point crushing she was faced with a few months back.
Alas, there is some dark cloud to the silver linings for Blumenthal: Joe Lieberman continues to be Joe Lieberman. Apparently angry that no one has talked about him for a while, Lieberman let it be known that he "would be open" to endorsing McMahon over Blumenthal. For good measure, he also noted he was up in the air about the gubernatorial race (not a surprise, of course, since the Democratic frontrunner is none other than...Ned Lamont).
SC-Sen: Lesson of PPP poll--keep one eye on Jim DeMint in 2010
Normally, a nineteen-point lead for an incumbent from an independent pollster is cause for celebration, not alarm. But when that lead is against a virtually unknown challenger, and the incumbent has that lead in spite of mediocre job approval, it might be worth paying some attention to the race. This is the circumstance in which far-right GOP Senator Jim DeMint finds himself. He leads little-known Democrat Vic Rawls (49-30), but Rawls has a tremendous potential for upside considering his low name recognition and DeMint's poor job numbers (approval sitting at 43%).
WI-Sen: Wall follows Leinenkugel to the exits in Feingold challenge
For a guy who has been in the race for only a handful of days, businessman Ron Johnson is proving to be kryptonite to his GOP opponents. The second Republican this week shuttered his campaign on Thursday, as wealthy businessman Terrence Wall shut down his Senate bid. Johnson, armed with the state GOP endorsement, now faces just lightly-regarded Dave Westlake in the GOP primary, which still is three months away.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AL-05: Potential endorsement scandal brewing for turncoat GOPer?
As has been well established here on the Wrap, Democrat-turned-Republican Parker Griffith has struggled quite a bit in his bid to consolidate support in his new party in advance of the 2010 elections. He has garnered some high-profile conservative support, however. One example was Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist. Gilchrist's support might have come at a price though...literally. Mo Brooks, a challenger to Griffith in next week's GOP primary, complained that he had sought Gilchrist's endorsement, but backed off when he refused to hire a campaign consulting firm run by a Gilchrist ally. Some time later, Gilchrist endorsed Griffith instead. And, coincidentally, Griffith had also added some consulting help. From the Gilchrist-allied firm. To the tune of $6500. Stay tuned.
AR-01: Runner-Up Causey compiling endorsements for runoff bid
Chad Causey, the Chief of Staff to outgoing Rep. Marion Berry, ran behind prosecutor Tim Woolridge in the May 18th primary in the Arkansas 1st. But he has easily led the endorsement derby since the dawn of the runoff campaign. Earlier in the week, he won the support of state legislator David Cook (generally agreed to be the most progressive candidate in the field). Thursday, he grabbed the endorsement of Steve Bryles. If Cook and Bryles can persuade their supporters to back Causey, his narrow disadvantage could well turn into a lead. That said, history has well established that endorsements are not always guarantees of voter behavior.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AK-Gov: New poll points to Parnell-Berkowitz general elex showdown
Confirming what a lot of people already presumed, new data out of the state of Alaska shows that the likely scenario calls for a battle between incumbent Republican Governor Sean Parnell and Democrat Ethan Berkowitz. While the report on the survey doesn't give the actual toplines, it does not that Parnell has a 48-point advantage, while Berkowitz is staked to a less overwhelming (but still profound) 31-point lead. Berkowitz built up a lot of statewide name recognition by virtue of his near-miss against Republican Congressman Don Young in 2008 (remember, Alaska has one House seat), and has long been considered the betting favorite on the Democratic side. The presumption is that Parnell would be the favorite in a head-to-head with Berkowitz, although that trial heat was apparently not tested in this survey by DRM Market Research.
CA-Gov: PPP poll has Democrat Brown surprisingly safe
This one is, without question, the best polling result we have seen for Democratic frontrunner Jerry Brown in the entire 2010 cycle. A new poll out from the crew over at PPP gives Brown double-digit leads over either Meg Whitman (48-36) or Steve Poizner (48-32). This result would seem to imply that Brown's strategy of sitting back and watching the GOP primary descend into a bloodletting was a more sound strategy than a lot of folks (myself included) had calculated. Of course, it is also worth noting that a lot of pollsters have had the race closer than this.
CT-Gov: New Q poll gives Lamont sizeable edge in Dem primary
If the new poll out this week from Quinnipiac is to be believed, we are looking at a Lamont-Foley showdown in November in the Nutmeg State. The Q poll has former ambassador Thomas Foley leading the GOP field with 37%, well ahead of Lt. Governor Michael Fedele (who trails with 11% of the vote). Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, the state party endorsement for former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy has not paid enormous dividends in his battle with 2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont. Lamont holds a seventeen-point edge (41-24) over Malloy. Two months ago, the last time Quinnipiac polled the race, they had a ten-point lead for Lamont.
GA-Gov: Barnes out in front...WAY out...according to I/A
In this 2010 cycle, we have grown accustomed to former Governor Roy Barnes being out in front of the field in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. But a new poll out from Insider Advantage implies that the road to the nomination might be easier than anyone thought. The poll has Barnes sitting at an uber-comfortable 64% of the primary vote, with former runner-up Thurbert Baker in third place with just 6% (Dubose Porter was running second at just 8%). That would seem to imply that Barnes could bypass a runoff, something that earlier polls had at least in the realm of possibility.
NM-Gov: Martinez leads primary and general in new SUSA polling
Apparently, a late primary media blitz is paying dividends on multiple levels for GOP gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez. According to a new poll from SurveyUSA, Martinez, the District Attorney for Dona Ana County (Las Cruces), holds a ten point edge in the Republican primary, drawing 43% against former state chairman Allen Weh, who is sitting on 33%. Pete Domenici Jr. now seems a lock for the worst performance for a hyped campaign this cycle, drawing 9% of the vote to run well behind the front pack. The big surprise here is that said media campaign has also moved Martinez to the front of the pack in the general election, where she now leads near-certain Democratic nominee Diane Denish by six points (49-43).
Meanwhile, another poll of the primary done by Dialing Services for local political writer Joe Monahan got a very similar result in the GOP primary: Martinez up on Weh by a 41-30 margin.
NY-Gov: (Yet another) New GOPer vies to be Cuomo opponent
Well, isn't this interesting. Just a handful of weeks after the GOP higher-ups seemed to be coalescing around recent Democratic convert Steve Levy as their standard-bearer against popular Democratic AG Andrew Cuomo, the head of the Republican Governors Association was heaping praise upon the newest entrant in the field: little-known businessman Myers Marmel. Haley Barbour "welcomed" Marmel into the race, a gesture he did not feel the need to extend to the trio of other Republicans in the fray. Polls have shown Cuomo laying waste to any of the prospective Republicans in the field.
SC-Gov: Haley sex scandal looks to be a "drip-drip-drip" story
We are now on day #5 of Text-watch in South Carolina, it would seem. What we have here, of course, is the classic "he said/she said". For those who have not followed the saga, here is a brief synopsis: right-wing blogger Will Folks admitted early in the week to a sexual liaison with GOP frontrunner Nikki Haley while Haley was married. This was bizarre on a couple of levels: one, Folks said he was motivated by fear of the relationship being outed by rivals of Haley, and still expressed admiration for Haley and support for her campaign. Two, Haley decided that the best defense was a good offense, and rejected any notion of an admission. This has led to a bizarre dance for a week, as Folks promises the release of text messages which would seal the deal, so to speak. He says he is waiting on the direction of his lawyer to do so. Haley, meanwhile, continues to twist slowly in the wind.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
As we head into the weekend, it's just Rasmussen being Rasmussen in the three states they explored on Thursday. But, it must be said, they were more bullish on Democrat Diane Denish in New Mexico than even SUSA was.
AL-Sen: Sen. Richard Shelby (R) 58%, William Barnes (D) 31%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 43%, Susana Martinez (R) 42%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 45%, Allen Weh (R) 39%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 45%, Janice-Arnold Jones (R) 31%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 47%, Doug Turner (R) 31%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 47%, Pete Domenici Jr. (R) 30%
WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 44%
WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 47%, Terrence Wall (R) 41%
WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 47%, Dave Westlake (R) 38%