Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/24-26. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/10-12 results)
Joe Sestak (D) 43 (40)
Pat Toomey (R) 40 (45)
That's quite the primary victory bounce, +8 points. Where did the numbers shift?
Sestak Toomey
Democrats: 76 (73) 8 (11)
Republicans: 6 (4) 82 (84)
Independents: 35 (30) 35 (44)
Sestak enjoyed a net gain of +6 among Democrats, +4 among Republicans, and +14 among Independents. That'll do the trick.
For Toomey, the news isn't better when looking at the two candidate's favorabilities:
Favorable/Unfavorable
Sestak 48/30 (39/26)
Toomey 47/42 (45/40)
And Toomey's long history of conservative lunacy (he was, after all, president of the Club for Growth) makes him an ill fit for his state. Assuming a spirited and aggressive Democratic campaign, there is very little, absent scandal (the real kind, not the silly job offer kind), that should give Toomey much hope. His best chance for victory went up in smoke the moment Sestak won the Democratic primary.