There have been several dKos diaries about a BushCo `October surprise', including diaries by
schoolpsyc,
themank,
Krusty, as well as others. They all share one underlying theme; Bush and crew need to pull some kind of a rabbit out of the hat between now and the Nov 06 elections in order to assure continued Republican hegemony in government, probably something that allows Republicans to once again play the national security and fear cards, to rally the nation around the preznit.
What will the magic potion will be? -- maybe significant withdrawal from Iraq, maybe a military action against Iran, maybe (tinfoil hat warning!) a fortuitous and significant terrorist strike against the US, or maybe some other event of `convenience' yet to be revealed?
Well, take heart. More than just dKos diarists worry about an `October surprise'. Follow me, if you will.
A 22 Apr 06 article in the online edition of
Asia Times, "Al-Qaeda finds its missing link in Iran", raises a flag, a
big red flag. For instance,
"Tehran has taken over the central stage by challenging American hegemony," Hamid Gul told Asia Times Online. "Tehran is today's inspiration force. It charms the Arab youths on the streets. The Arab rulers are terrified of this development, and this is the reason they are coming to Pakistan one after another."
For those of you unfamiliar with Hamid Gul, he was the head of the Pakistani ISI (sort of a combination of the CIA and the now-defunct KGB). It was under his guidance that the ISI, with US money and backing, effectively gave rise to the Taliban. He speaks Persian (the language of Iran); he remains a very well-connected and powerful man, not just in Pakistan. In fact, that he is still alive attests to his power and connections.
The most important part of the quote above is Gul's reference to visits (to Pakistan) by heads of state among the states of the Arab Peninsula. While not unheard of, it certainly has not been commonplace in the past. (The population of Pakistan is mostly Pashtun, no connection to the Arabic tribal structure.) Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Salah. arrived in Pakistan on 10 Apr 06 for a one-day visit with President Masharraf. Saudi Crown Prince Ali Abdullah Salah arrived on 14 Apr 06 for a two-day visit.
What was the principal topic? Naturally, there were the usual platitudes about trade, investment, and commerce, as well as other items of mutual interest. But the Asia Times gives an added slant.
Contacts close to the echelons of power in Pakistan's military headquarters, Rawalpindi, tell Asia Times Online that judging from the pattern of talks, all of the Muslim countries that side with the United States anticipate a US attack on Iran around October.
And, according to these contacts, their strategy is to consolidate opinion in the Organization of Islamic Conferences to be prepared. This does not mean stopping the attack, but being ready for the fallout in the Middle East and beyond.
(Emphasis mine.)
This was Gul's observation about the meetings.
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's anti-American calls have become the voice of today's Arab youths. They see in him a hero, and it has shaken the foundations of pro-American dictators and monarchs," Gul explained.
"They [Arab rulers] are anxious and restive. They are seeing their doomsday started. Since Pakistan and Arab rulers operate under the US umbrella, they are basically joining their heads together to contain the Iranian threat.
"The way Iran has spun its web in the region, all strategic levers are coming into Tehran's hands. The Hizb-i-Islami Afghanistan led by [Gulbuddin] Hekmatyar is part of the Islamic movement and already close to Iran, but it is only a matter of time when Taliban-related movements will resolve all differences with Iran and join hands with Tehran," Gul said.
And what is Gul's assessment of the US position in the region?
Critics argue that should the crisis be defused, Iran will back down from its present rhetoric and leave all radicals in the lurch. After all, they argue, Tehran has indirectly facilitated US interests in the region, be they in Afghanistan or Iraq.
"I don't agree with this notion," Gul said dismissively. "Iran raised funds for Hamas at a time when the whole Muslim world was sympathetic with Hamas but did not dare to openly support them. Iran [this week] pledged [US]$50 million.
"At the same time, it is untrue that Iran supported US designs in the region. Instead, it cleverly played its cards and now it is evident that it has trapped the Americans in Afghanistan and Iraq," said Gul.
Any judgement as to Gul's views is difficult to make. The fact is, he is a politician of sorts, and may well have a hidden agenda. Add to that a past that shows he can be a bit duplicitous.
And it is unknown if any other Gulf State leaders have visited or been in talks with President Masharraf, or vice versa.
What is strongly suspected is that BushCo is looking for that rabbit in the hat, the one that has `national security' and `public fear' written all over it. Further, if that rabbit is to appear, it must be between now and the Nov 06 elections, and it must have such significance and lasting effect as to have influence, major influence, on the nation at least through then. Putting all of that together, can it be less than disturbing that members of the Gulf States and South Asia are talking about an `October surprise' too?
Your thoughts?