Back on June 2nd, ObamOcala published a diary here titled What's Going on With Gallup? It was referring to a poll out from Gallup showing the generic ballot with a +6 Republican lead, which was the best the Republicans had ever done in generic Congressional balloting (with Gallup).
I responded, in all so brilliant fashion, that it was probably an outlier. Prior to that, Gallup had been polling the race pretty consistently and pretty much showed the race to be even. The only other outfit with numerous polls to compare with was Rasmussen, and while they definitely showed a pro-Republican bias, the point was that it was particularly more pro-Republican.
I felt justified when, two weeks later, Gallup came back with another poll, and it was all tied up again. The first poll was just outlier, like I had predicted.
Except Gallup just released it's latest poll today. The margin is again +5 Republican. Rasmussen, for what it is worth, is at +10 Republican. This will of course be dismissed as just Ras being Ras, except it should be pointed out that Rasmussen polls likely voters rather that register voters. The Gallup poll, which was registered voters, showed an enthusiasm gap of +15 between Democrats and Republicans. Given that, the +10 that Ras is showing is actually pretty much in line with Gallup's results.
Need more? How about this from NPR. This is a poll of the 70 House districts rated most likely to oust the party that currently holds the seat this fall. (The fact that 60 of the 70 are currently Democratic is telling in and of itself). The results- +8 Republican, with a +14 result of those who consider themselves enthusiastic about the election.
What can be done to limit the damage this fall? (anyone telling me the Democrats aren't going to lose some seats is just living in a dreamworld). I don't pretend to have the answer. No one is happy with President Obama's handling of BP and the spill, but really it's hard to argue that he has made any major mistakes. (Although, I may not be the one to judge that, since I also believe that President Bush's errors with Katrina were not so much during the hurricane and immediate aftermath as much as it was in the weeks that followed.) The economy is NOT turning around, certainly not fast enough for the fall elections. Short of President Obama starting a popular war of some sort, I have no ideas.
If you do, please feel free to share below.