The latest polling has some fascinating data on where the public is at, with plenty of mixed messages.
From the CBS/NY Times poll (full results here):
Overwhelmingly, Americans think the nation needs a fundamental overhaul of its energy policies, and most expect alternative forms to replace oil as a major source within 25 years. Yet a majority are unwilling to pay higher gasoline prices to help develop new fuel sources.
But why? Because the economy trumps everything. When asked to rate "most important problem", the numbers are jobs 20, economy 20, Gulf spill 13.
The poll, which examines the public’s reaction to the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, highlights some of the complex political challenges the Obama administration faces. For instance, despite intense news coverage and widespread public concern about the economic and ecological damage from the gulf disaster, most Americans remain far more concerned about jobs and the nation’s overall economy.
And in that regard, President Obama does not fare well: 54 percent of the public say he does not have a clear plan for creating jobs, while only 34 percent say he does, an ominous sign heading into this fall’s midterm elections.
Respondents were nearly evenly split on the president’s handling of the economy — 45 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove. His job approval rating remains just below 50 percent. And by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, Americans think the country is on the wrong track.
Lots in here, including how Gulf residents are different than the rest of the country, and where they are the same.
The dependence of local residents on gulf-related industries like fishing and oil is evident in the poll. About 3 in 10 said they or someone in their household worked in those industries.
They are divided on the benefits of the government’s six-month moratorium on offshore drilling put into place after the Deepwater Horizon blowout, while the majority of Americans think it is a good idea.
That explains why Bobby Jindal and Haley Barbour can say the stuff they do; however' each of their Presidential ambitions has to be tempered by the fact that the rest of the country isn't as keen on drilling as they are.
For job approval, Obama is at 44 approve/46 disapprove in the CBS/NY Times poll [in the Gulf and 47/43 overall]. As far as his overall standing, Gallup also released this analysis yesterday, looking at trends of its own polling:
No Sign That Obama's Overall Job Approval Rating Has Been Significantly Affected
The trend data show a four-point increase in approval of Obama's handling of the oil spill between Gallup's June 5-6 poll and the June 19-20 poll [currently at 44%]. These results suggest a possibly slight benefit to Obama from his recent visits to the Gulf region, culminating in his nationally televised address from the Oval Office last Tuesday.
There is less evidence that the oil spill has affected Obama's standing in the public's eye from a comparison of his weekly overall job approval average before the BP spill on April 20 with his average after the spill. Obama's ratings have been slightly lower in the last four weeks than they were in the four weeks prior to that, but his average in either time period is not much different from his 48% average in the four weeks immediately prior to the spill.
To illustrate the point further, back to the CBS/NYT poll, Obama's at 43/37 on handling the spill, up from 35/45 in May and 38/44 at the beginning of June. As progress is made, those numbers will likely continue to change.
There's plenty of criticism of Obama's performance in the polls. For example, the CBS/NY Times poll notes that by 2:1, those polled think Obama's response was too slow (61 too slow, 32 about right.) However, he gets reasonable numbers on "cares about the people affected": 43 a lot, 32 some, 14 not much, 8 not at all. He's seen as a strong leader, but not with clear plans on jobs, the spill or developing alternative energy sources.
Starting on p. 10 of the poll, you can drill down into some fascinating attitudes. 3 out of 4 people (including those in the Gulf) want more regulation of oil, and Gulf residents favor protecting the environment over developing new sources of energy 48/37. The country as a whole answers the opposite, 29/49. And while 58% think energy policy needs fundamental change, a tax on gas to encourage wind and solar energy development is opposed 45 to 51. Mention numbers (50¢ or $1.00) and support drops like a stone.
There's a complex pattern in the numbers, reflecting plenty of uncertainty. There's also opportunity to do more explaining (which in my view might well need to wait until the well is plugged.) But there's nothing in the numbers to suggest that complacency is justified. Even if Obama's speech did not play as badly as critics maintain, there's still plenty of unfinished business here as far as the public is concerned.
The public is still sour on Congress. They want the financial industry to be the next topic (30), followed by immigration (24) and education (24), suggesting the local and state budget crunch is hitting home. Congress gets a whopping 19% approval (hey, that's up from 15 in May) and only 9% think most members of Congress deserve to be re-elected (79% don't - those numbers are also stable.)
One last poll to add, and that's Pew/National Journal. While getting similar numbers to CBS/NYT, there are some gems such as:
That's astounding - not that they are critical of Obama, but that they are more critical than of BP ("the little people") and Tony Hayward ("I want my life back".) Joe Barton is no isolated occurrence, and it's one reason he'll be one of the faces of the Republican response to the spill from now until November (another is the Republican Study Group).
By contrast, just 18% give positive ratings to BP’s response, while 28% say it has been only fair. And even with the rise in poor ratings for the Obama administration, many more rate BP’s response to the oil leak as poor (49%) than say that about the administration’s response (35%).
If you hear the administration criticizing BP and Barton by name from here on out, you'll know why. And from a Democrat's perspective, there are some things that you simply don't pay attention to when a Republican says it (such as criticism of Obama - it's always there, no matter what; Republicans seem to want Michael Brown to be in charge.) What matters more is what everyone else thinks. When it comes to the spill, the WH and Congress do not look great, but to the public, the villain is BP, followed by unenforced regulation.