Boomers, I didn't want to have to do this. I didn't want to have to spend time and room on Daily Kos's rec list (if you so honor me) debunking pure bullshit. But in recent days, the bullshit has gotten wider and wider circulation. I've had to write a form letter to use in replying to emails asking me about bullshit. First, it was the Matt Simmons' bullshit about the seafloor opening in a huge gash, which is where most of the oil was coming from.... and so we should nuke the well (????).
Most recently, I've had to contend with the dougr bullshit from an otherwise wonderful website, The Oil Drum.
Both, doomsday scenarios (as if we needed those right now). Both, bullshit.
Jump the manure heap with me and I'll explain why this is all bullshit and I'll also issue a challenge to anyone in the Oil and Gas industry, or anyone else, to prove otherwise.
First off, how does someone on the internet (or anywhere else) gain credibility? By being quoted? No. BY BEING RIGHT! Forums like Daily Kos and TheOilDrum provide a bulletproof means of establishing credibility. Anonymity makes no difference here. Right is Right. When I'm right as Fishgrease, I'm just as right as I would be using my real name. When I post a comment on Daily Kos, that comment is THERE. It is date and time stamped and (Daily Kos management will back me up on this) unchangeable. I don't have to just say that I listed methane hydrates amongst the problems BP might have with their first containment dome effort -- I can refer back to the very comment where I mentioned it. When I'm right I can prove it. But also, when I'm wrong, I can't claim I'm right, because that's there too -- date and time stamped. For instance, in that very comment, I was wrong about something.
In 5000 feet of water, it's cold. The dome they're going to put over the biggest leak this week will work. The pipe to the surface won't. All oil contains paraffins and asphaltenes. Both the cold water surrounding the pipe and the gas expanding as it surfaces (basic refigeration) will cause paraffins to accumulate on the pipe walls. The asphaltenes will form a matrix within the paraffin. The result? A 5000 ft. candle, tough as nails. That's not even considering methane hydrates (like dry ice but with methane instead of CO2) which form, seemingly when they'll do the most harm.
The dome damned well didn't work and plugged with hydrates before they even hooked the pipe to it. How about Top Kill? I'm able to say I had doubts about Top Kill, before Top Kill, because I wrote a diary about it. The night they started Top Kill, I wondered why it would take so long to kill a well. And I said so. It's not just me, either. Over at TheOilDrum, there are several posters who have gained credibility by being right. I trust ROCKMAN because ROCKMAN has been right. A lot. Also, being in the industry, I could tell ROCKMAN knew his shit because he accurately described materials and procedures I see every day. The important point here is that I knew ROCKMAN was for real after reading one paragraph of his on my first visit to that site.
So on June 13th, dougr posts his heavily linked-to doomsday scenario. After one or two paragraphs I didn't get that same feeling of comfort. Nothing I could put my finger on. This is where I began to have some problems:
I took some time to go into a bit of detail concerning the failure of Top Kill because this was a significant event. To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly knowledgeable, it was a major confirmation of what many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it will continue to.
Yes, there's some problems downhole. No great discovery there. There's a general consensus in the industry that "serious failures of varying magnitude" downhole caused the initial blowout. What no one has any proof of is that it is "breaking down and it will continue to". Common sense tells us that if the flow is coming up through faulty or damaged cement structures, there would be some continuing erosion. But how severe? And most importantly, where downhole? No one knows and we've seen nothing that can tell us. NO ONE has seen anything that could possibly support this next paragraph!
This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.
Whoa! Wait a minute here! We know there's damage somewhere downhole, and all of a sudden we're undermining the foundation of the seabed? Without leaking up through the seabed? We're worried about supporting the BOP all of a sudden? There is absolutely NO reason to think any of this! I challenge anyone, inside the industry or out to substantiate this crap.
The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of the Bop in place is the well itself. The very large steel connectors of the initial well head "spud" stabbed in to the sea floor. The Bop literally sits on top of the pipe and never touches the sea bed, it wouldn't do anything in way of support if it did. After several tens of feet the seabed does begin to support the well connection laterally (side to side) you couldn't put a 450 ton piece of machinery on top of a 100' tall pipe "in the air" and subject it to the side loads caused by the ocean currents and expect it not to bend over...unless that pipe was very much larger than the machine itself, which you all can see it is not. The well's piping in comparison is actually very much smaller than the Blow Out Preventer and strong as it may be, it relies on some support from the seabed to function and not literally fall over...and it is now showing signs of doing just that....falling over.
That's pretty dramatic! That looks like FUN! Here, let me try!
That enormously heavy "steel hammer head" rests on the end of a hopelessly thin "hammer handle", which is made of laughably weak, decay-able "wood"! How'd they ever build a "railroad" all the way across our "continent" with those fucking things?
In the comments, billyb nailed my point here so well that I can do no better than quote:
"So, by your analogy of a sledgehammer, it appears to me that you are arguing that the well pipe is strong enough to withstand the lateral forces of the sea current on its own without needing the seabed for structural support. That the only real danger would be if there was a leak in the well pipe that eroded the pipe to the point of failure."
YES!
Yes, the BOP and upper wellbore have some tilt. As dougr accurately states, the first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It offers little resistance to a gradual bending of the pipe in the upper wellbore. In fact, when the rig sank, this very feature may have prevented a good deal of damage to the upper casing strings and the BOP in the same way a sapling isn't damaged in the wind or when an elk rubs against it. One thing we know for certain. The BOP is not leaning noticeably more than it was in the first pictures we had of it after the blowout. Most likely, it has done most of the the falling over it is going to do. Is there anything leaking up around it through the loose ooze of the seafloor? No. Nothing. Will there be? Here's a diagram of a wellbore, not unlike the one we're discussing:
As you can see, deep wells are constructed with casing inside casing inside casing, with cement filling the space in between. At the top of the well, where the surrounding rock is always weakest, there are more layers. Damage to the cement or even the metal casing in any one of these annuli, or even damage to two of them, doesn't mean the gas an oil have a route to exit the outermost casing. And if it was going to leak up along that final metal-ooze contact, industry consensus overwhelmingly agrees it would have done so before now. It hasn't. This is important: THERE HAS BEEN NO INDICATION THAT IT WILL -- EVER!
But THIS! This takes the cake:
Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.
Supports, dougr? Cables? Hooked to the BOP and... WHAT? Is there anything solid enough on that seafloor to drive an anchor into? What are you going to cable the BOP to to keep it from tipping over? The wellbore itself is the only solid thing for miles and miles! You said so yourself!
The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of the Bop in place is the well itself.
So.... anchor the wellbore TO ITSELF I guess? How can people read this shit and not find these obvious internal contradictions? Don't answer that. I know the answer. People DON'T read it! The follow the links to this crap, scan it for the worst news possible, and they're done.
If instead of just visiting TheOilDrum to quickly scan dougr's post, people had read the many more credible posters on that fine website, they'd have discovered every bit of this. But people don't do that. They follow a link to dougr's post on TheOilDrum and even after reading the plain-as-day disclaimer, they're off to other websites spreading the Oh Noes message of doom. For those with zero technical knowledge of the Oil and Gas Industry, consider finding this on an internet site:
The Taliban in Afghanistan have been found to use weapons called "AK-47s". These weapons originate in China and Russia! This is conclusive proof that not only are China and Russia supporting the Taliban, in fact, Russian and Chinese "soldiers" are actually IN Afghanistan "fighting" alongside the Taliban!"
How would you react to that? I hope you would be a little bit skeptical (unless you're Glenn Beck, in which case it's your show for the next week). Why don't named, recognized Oil and Gas Industry experts come forward to refute things posted on the internet by people like dougr? Here's why:
"I've never heard of William Craig. A debate with him might look good on his resume, but it wouldn't look good on mine!"
-- Richard Dawkins
But wait! I'M on the internet! I'm a guy named Fishgrease for Christ's sake! Never mind my credibility on Daily Kos, we need an arbiter here! A named, recognized Oil and Gas Industry expert! Tonight I was watching Keith Olbermann (like I always do). Keith read from dougr's post on TheOilDrum and asked his superb expert, Bob Cavnar what he thought about it. Mr. Cavnar agreed that BP should keep the well flowing until the kill bores are complete (which I certainly agree with also). But from Mr. Cavnar's answer, I cannot believe he read dougr's full post on TheOilDrum. So. Keith. If you or your staff happen to read this, please have Bob Cavnar read dougr's original post on TheOilDrum and my post here. Ask him which he finds more credible. Ask him which he finds more reality-based and informed.
I've actually taken the easy bet here. For me to be right, all that has to happen is:
- No flow of gas AND oil up through the seafloor around the wellbore.
- The BOP doesn't fall over or come off.
For dougr, and anyone supporting his thesis to be right, both those things have to happen. I like my chances here. (HT to RLMiller) As far as judging from empirical results, I'm willing to bet anything that no oil and gas flow EVER starts coming up through the seafloor around that wellhead. BP has already stated that they intend to flow the well from now until the kill bores (relief wells) intersect and kill the well. BP has already stated that they will make no further attempts at killing the well or shutting it in via the existing BOP. Any consultation along those lines is therefore redundant.
Now, Matt Simmons. Matt Simmons is not an expert. He's an investor. And he's SHORTING ... BP. But if Matt Simmons said he was a policeman on Venus, he'd still find his way onto television and he'd still be asked why we should nuke this well. I can't do anything about that and I'm not going to try. Fuck it.
On April 20th, this Macondo Well blew out. It burned and then sank Transocean's Deepwater Horizon rig and it killed eleven brave men. Since that day, this well has leaked, over a million bbls of oil (some very rational estimates top 2 million bbls) and countless mmcf of natural gas into the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This disaster has killed and continues to kill fish, shrimp, shellfish, marine reptiles, marine mammals and birds throughout the Northern Gulf of Mexico. It is without a doubt, one of the worst ecological disasters in our long history (and the well is still leaking). It is on it's way to becoming one of our worst human disasters. This continuing leak is wrecking communities, businesses, marriages and lives, all along the Gulf Coast. I could go on and on. I could use thousands of words describing how bad this thing is.
I cannot understand why some people don't think it is bad enough.
Having said all that, I do not blame anyone for being gullible -- for believing stuff. With my President and my industry, I never thought an uncontrolled deepwater blowout would or could happen. I guess that places me amongst the biggest suckers of all time.
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UPDATE! Response from TheOilDrum:
on behalf of The Oil Drum...thank you.
Fishgrease,
I wanted to drop a note to thank you for putting this together. (and also ask that you drop me a note at TOD's eds box (right sidebar on our site)...I think we might want to run a version of this as well, if you're amenable.)
As you well know, we've posted many many rebuttals and counterarguments to the dougr comment, as well as put an editorial disclaimer on the comment itself.
It retrospect, I suppose we could have taken the comment down. No one on our staff suspected that this would go as viral as it has; but in this information-as-crack age in which we live, the need to find the worst-case scenario is becoming almost innate, I think because the world we live in continues to get a little hairier and scarier each day--so in order to cope, we have to know how bad things can really get.
As you point out, dKos and TOD both strive to be reality-based, scientific, and straightforward. We're doing our best to keep it on that track.
Thanks for contributing a little sanity to the world.
PG
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