You ready to pay seven cents per gallon in 2011, and eleven cents per gallon in 2035? That's exactly what would happen if we ban offshore drilling. Here's more on this from RFF Fellow, Stephen P.A. Brown, at the Resources For Future:
"If such risks are not taken fully into account, offshore oil and natural gas production will be too great; oil and natural gas prices will be too low; and the consumption of oil and natural gas will be too high," Brown writes. "Are tighter controls or a permanent ban on deepwater drilling in the United States a reasonable response to such externalities – or an overreaction?"
Brown assesses the implications of a permanent tightening of U.S. government control on deepwater offshore drilling through three scenarios. The first case represents business as usual. The second imposes additional regulatory safeguards that would increase the cost of exploration, development, and production in U.S. deepwater and ultra-deepwater areas by a combined 20 percent. The third case examines the implications of a permanent U.S. ban on drilling in deepwater and ultra-deepwater areas.
And here are the projected findings from these three scenarios below by Stephen P.A. Brown:
By raising U.S. safety standards for deepwater and ultra-deepwater drilling to those set by such countries as Brazil, Canada, Norway, and the United Kingdom, costs could increase by as much as 20 percent – which would have relatively small impact on world oil prices, Brown estimates. These changes would translate to gains in the price of gasoline of about one-half cent per gallon in 2011 and eight-tenths of a cent per gallon in 2035.
However, a total ban on such drilling would have much larger effects, Brown notes. Projected oil prices would rise by about $2.58 per barrel (3.54 percent) above baseline in 2011 and by about $4.03 (3.03 percent) above baseline in 2035. Projected gasoline prices would be about 7.2 cents per gallon higher in 2011 and 11.3 cents per gallon higher in 2035.
We currently consume about 8.7% total of offshore oil production, and by 2035, that consumption would rise to about 10.7 of total U.S. supply as referenced by Stephen Brown. When you think about this, coupled with even more stringent renewable energy standards and fuel energy standards, we could cut off that amount of offshore oil consumption from our energy diet. This is our chance to turn away from the huge environmental risks that deepwater drilling present to us, so a repeat of the Gulf Oil Spill never has to happen again.
This is our planet. It's all we have. Let's not screw it up anymore.