Summary:
Florida has 25 representatives: 15 Republicans and 10 Democrats
Primary is Aug 24
Possibly vulnerable
FL 8 Grayson D
FL 10 Young R
FL 12 Open R
FL 22 Klein D
FL 24 Kosmas D
FL 25 Open R
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.
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District: FL-01
Location The westernmost part of the panhandle, bordering AL, the Gulf of Mexico and including Pensacola map
Representative Jeff Miller (R) Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 429
First elected 2001
2008 margin 70-30 over Jim Bryan
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 77-22
Obama margin 32-67
Bush margin 2004 72-29
Current opponents Jim Bryan is running again, he looks like a good guy, but this is a tough district for Democrats.
Demographics Most veterans of any district (21.7%), and the 13th most Republican district per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot. Miller has only $31K COH, he's in a primary vs. John Krause. No info on Bryan
District: FL-02
Location The middle of the panhandle, bordering AL, GA and the Gulf of Mexico, and including Tallahassee map
Representative Allen Boyd (D)
VoteView ranking 205
First elected 1996
2008 margin 62-38 over Mike Mulligan
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 54-44
Current opponents There is a primary challenge from Al Lawson daily kos diary. Republicans include Eddie Hendry, Eddie Ortiz, Carl Meece, Charlie Ranson and Steve Southerland, then there's Paul McKain who is (get this) a Whig!
Demographics 90th poorest district (median income = $35K), 60th most veterans (15.3%)
Assessment This part of FL is more like Alabama or Georgia than it is like Miami; Tallahasse (which is in the eastern part of this district) is 484 miles from Miami and 228 from Atlanta. Boyd has shown he can win; most Democrats could not. Safe. Boyd has over $1.5 million COH, Southerland has about $150K, the others have little
District: FL-03
Location The 'joint' where the panhandle meets the main part of the state, including (through some gerrymandering) both parts of Jacksonville and Gainesville. This district has been the subject of lots of controversy - it borders the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 24th. Here:
District %Black %Bush 04
03 49.3 35
04 13.5 69
05 4.5 58
06 11.9 61
07 8.8 57
24 6.3 55
and the borders of the 3rd are pretty tortured. map
Representative Corrine Brown (D)
VoteView ranking 173.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 73-26
Bush margin 2004 35-65
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Jacob Hoeschst, Mike Yost, James Gilman (all R), John Annarumma (another Whig)
Demographics 21st poorest district (median income = $30K), 41st most Blacks (49.3%)
Assessment Safe. Brown has $184K COH, the others have little.
District: FL-04
Location The eastern part of the panhandle, from Tallahassee suburbs to the Atlantic, bordering GA map
Representative Ander Crenshaw (R)
First elected 2000
2008 margin 65-35 over Jim McGovern
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 69-31
Current opponents No confirmed Democrats. There is a primary challenge.
Demographics 30th most veterans (17.1%); 33rd most Republican district
Assessment No opponent.
District: FL-05
Location On the Gulf coast, just south of the panhandle map
Representative Ginny Brown-Waite (R) Retiring
VoteView ranking NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents At least 4 Democrats: Tom Doolan, a real progressive; Jim Picillo , and David Werder, a perennial candidate, but definitely odd. Not clear what will happen among Republicans
Demographics 12th most veterans (21.3%)
Assessment Long shot. Even with Brown-Waite retiring, this is Republican territory.
District: FL-06
Location A boomerang shaped district in the middle of north Florida map
Representative Cliff Stearns (R)
VoteView ranking 392
First elected 1988
2008 margin 61-39 over Tim Cunha
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents There's a primary, and then Cunha is running again (no website yet)
Demographics 13th most veterans (18.3%)
Assessment Long shot. Stearns has 2.5 million COH, no info on Cunha
District: FL-07
Location Atlantic coast of northern FL, from north of St. Augustine to Daytona Beach map
Representative John Mica (R)
VoteView ranking 367
First elected 1992
2008 margin 62-38 over Faye Armitage
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Democrats Faye Armitage and Heather Beacon.
Demographics 15th most veterans (17.6%)
Assessment Long shot. I like Faye Armitage, but she lost badly in a better year. Mica has over $1 million COH, the Democrats have little.
District:FL-08
Location More or less the middle of FL, including Orlando map
Representative Alan Grayson (D)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-48 over Ric Keller
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-47
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Confirmed Republicans include: Albert Kerr, William Collins, Daniel Fanelli, Patricia Sullivan, Armando Gutierrez, and Bruce O'Donoghue; plus lots of rumors - see the WIKI
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This is a swing district, going for Bush twice before going for Obama; it's far from safe, but Grayson did just oust Keller. Grayson is very visible, and in ways I like a lot. He's got $1.5 million COH; of the confirmed Republicans, only O'Donoghue has much - about $300K
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean D. Grayson's name recognition and huge fund raising ability count for something.
District: FL-09
Location A weirdly shaped district (Oh Gerry! Gerry!) it runs along the Gulf Coast, circles around the 10th CD, and continues, plus it runs east into Central FL, then south - it's shaped sort of like the number 5, or more like a backwards Z rotated 90 degrees. map
Representative Gus Bilirakis (R)
VoteView ranking 294
First elected 2006
2008 margin 63-36 over Bill Mitchell
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin NA (but it was his father who held the seat)
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents There's a primary challenge. Then Anita de Palma
Demographics 18th most veterans (17.2%)
Assessment Long shot. Bilirakis has $300K COH, DePalma has little
District: FL-10
Location The Gulf Coast, near Tampa Bay (across the Bay from Tampa, north of St. Pete), but excluding a narrow strip that is FL-09. map
Representative Bill Young (R)
VoteView ranking 289
First elected 1970
2008 margin 61-39 over Bob Hackworth
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents there is a primary challenge and then Charlie Justice.
Demographics 13th most veterans (18.2%)
Assessment Young is gradually getting vulnerable. If we get some breaks, it's possible we could win here; still, Hackworth lost to Young in 2008. Young has almost $500K COH, Justice has about $61K.
My rating: Likely R
District: FL-11
Location Tampa and St. Petersburg map
Representative Kathy Castor Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 98.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 70-30 over Eddie Adams
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Tony Buntyn, Eddie Adams, Scott Keller and Tom Castellano
Demographics 55th most Blacks (27.4%)
Assessment Probably safe. Although Castor hasn't officially declared from what I can find, she has $350K COH. None of the Republicans have much.
District: FL-12
Location Interior Florida, east of Tampa Bay map
Representative Adam Putnam (R) Quitting to run for statewide office
VoteView ranking NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Several Republicans are running, more are thinking about it (see the wiki; confirmed Democrat: Lori Edwards, Doug Tudor,
Demographics 23rd most veterans (17%)
Assessment This is a fairly Republican seat; maybe the Repubs will damage each other in a primary? Only Dennis Ross (R) has much COH - he has about $300K
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R
District: FL-13
Location Gulf coast, from Bradenton to Englewood, interior to Arcadia map
Representative Vern Buchanan (R)
VoteView ranking 292
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-38 over Christine Jennings
2006 margin 369 votes out of 237,000
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents : James Golden
Demographics 9th most veterans (19.2%)
Assessment Buchanan is vulnerable, if a good candidate runs. But Buchanan has over $1 million COH, and Golden has little
District: FL-14
Location Gulf coast, including Naples and Ft. Myers map
Representative Connie Mack (R)
VoteView ranking 398
First elected 2004
2008 margin 59-25 over Robert Neeld
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Robert Neeld as is James Roach
Demographics 6th most veterans (19.8%)
Assessment Neeld has failed three times, long shot. Mack has $680K COH, the Democrats have little.
District: FL-15
Location Atlantic coast, from Cocoa to Vero Beach map
Representative Bill Posey (R)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 53-42 over Stephen Blythe
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Shannon Roberts
Demographics 8th most veterans (19.4%)
Assessment Long shot. Posey has $370K COH, Roberts has little.
District: FL-16
Location An oddly shaped district, it goes from the Gulf to the Atlantic; it's narrow at the Gulf (just about Port Charlotte and nothing else), widens in the middle of the state, swings around Lake Okeechobee, then narrows, then widens again at the Atlantic running from Ft. Pierce to Jupiter, then jogging inland to Wellington map
Representative Tom Rooney (R)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 60-40 over Tim Mahoney
2006 margin 50-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 11th most veterans (18.9%)
Assessment No opponent
District: FL-17
Location Just off the Atlantic (by a mile or so) including North Miami Beach, North Miami, and Hollywood map
Representative Kendrick Meek (D) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView ranking NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 87-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents About a dozen Democrats seem to be running or considering running (see the WIKI.
Demographics 20th most Blacks (55.2%) and very few veterans (7.2%). 29th poorest district (median income = $30K). The most Democratic district in the South
Assessment Whichever Democrat wins the primary will win the general. This is one of the most Democratic districts in the country, and Obama got more here than in all but 12 CDs.
District: FL-18
Location Miami and a narrow strip along the Atlantic north and south of there map
Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
VoteView ranking 258
First elected 1989
2008 margin 58-42 over Annette Tadeo
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 51-49
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 16th most Latinos (62.7%)
Assessment No opponent.
District: FL-19
Location Slightly off the Atlantic from near West Palm Beach to near Pompano Beach map
Representative Robert Wexler (D) Retired, the new rep. is Ted Deutch (D) who won a special election.
VoteView ranking 50
First elected 1996
2008 margin 66-27 over Ed Lynch
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unoppposed
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 34-66
Current opponents It's very confusing, because there was a special primary and a special election this year, and will be another primary this summer, and then, of course, November.
Demographics 28th most veterans (16.6%)
Assessment Safe for a Democrat
District: FL-20
Location Another weirdly shaped district. What is it shaped like? Well, part of it is like a number 7, with the top running from the Atlantic west to Weston, and the bottom on the Atlantic. Then, atop the 7, it goes back east to the Atlantic again then north a little... ohh... go look at the map
Representative Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D)
VoteView ranking 83
First elected 2004 (D)
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unoppsed
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 36-64
Current opponents Brian Reilly, Dennis Lamb, and Robert Lowry are in a Republican primary
Demographics Not unusual on what I track, but one of the highest concentrations of Jews of any district.
Assessment Safe. Wasserman-Schulz has close to $700K COH, the Republicans have very little.
District: FL-21
Location This one is shaped like a ?. Folks, to appreciate southern FL districting, you really have to look at a map. Gerry would be proud of these guys, but the Republicans may have overdone it, as they now have several vulnerable seats. map
Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) Retiring
VoteView ranking NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-51
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents For the Republicans, Mario Diaz-Balart, who is the representative for FL-25, is switching districts. For the Democrats William Sanches.
Demographics 8th most Latinos (69.7%)
Assessment Vulnerable with the right opponent, I thought this would be closer in 2008. But so far, the new Diaz-Balart has $400K COH, while Sanchez has little.
District: FL-22
Location One of the strangest shaped districts in the country. Go look. It's south Florida along the Atlantic....more or less. map
Representative Ron Klein (D)
VoteView ranking 203.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 55-45 over Alan West
2006 margin 51-47
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-48
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents There's a primary and then Allen West is running again, as is David Brady.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment West does not appear to be a serious threat, but others might be. Klein has $2.7 million COH, West has $1.1 million. No info on Brady
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Almost safe. Klein won easily in 2008; this is a more Republican year, but probably not that much of a swing.
District: FL-23
Location The eastern and southern coasts of Lake Okeechobee map
Representative Alcee Hastings (D) Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 57.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 82-18 over Marion Thorpe
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 83-17
Bush margin 2004 24-76
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Bernard Sansariq
Demographics 43rd fewest Whites (29.4%), 23rd most Blacks (51.2%), 41st poorest (median income = $31K)
Assessment Safe. Hastings hasn't officially declared that I can find, but he has almost a quarter million COH. Sansariq has nothing.
District: FL-24
Location Atlantic coast, towards the north. map
Representative Suzanne Kosmas (D)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-51
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents There's a primary and then Republicans include Sandy Addams, Ken Miller, Jim Heinzelman, Tom Garcia, Karen Deibel, Sean Campbell, Deon Long, Jason Davis, Chad Macinnes, Robert Robey and Jim Foster
Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)
Assessment Very vulnerable, Kosmas is a freshman in a swing district in a more Republican year. Kosmas has just over $1 million COH; among the Republicans, Adams and Diebel each have about $200K COH, Miller has about $300K.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: FL-25
Location Southern end of Florida map
Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R) Switching districts
VoteView ranking NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents The only confirmed entrant is Luiz Rivera. We'll have to see.
Demographics 17th most Latinos (62.4%), 16th fewest veterans (6%)
Assessment Vulnerable to the right opponent.
SSP rating: Lean R