One hundred and forty-eight years ago, on this date, "The Great Compromiser" Henry Clay passed away. A Henry Clay fun fact: Clay is the only member of the House in the chamber's distinguished 220+ year history to serve as Speaker of the House from his very first day in the chamber.
In political news of the day, we have dueling pollsters in the Buckeye State, new internal numbers trying to set primary election narratives down South, and Mark Kirk came out from under the bed.
All this...and more...on the Tuesday edition of the Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
CA-Sen: Boxer leads in new public poll, but it is close
New public polling, conducted in California by Reuters/Ipsos, seems to follow the conventional wisdom of the state of the race in the Golden State. Incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer leads over GOP nominee Carly Fiorina, but it is a decidedly narrow advantage. This poll gives Boxer a four point edge, with Boxer leading Fiorina 45-41. No doubt hurting the incumbent is general disgust at the state of the state, with 78% of respondents saying California is on the wrong track.
CO-Sen: Romanoff gets Big Dog boost, but was it payback?
Bill Clinton waded into the competitive Democratic Senate primary in Colorado today, offering his endorsement to challenger Andrew Romanoff, the former Speaker of the Colorado House. Politico is offering a different spin on the news--referencing it as payback to Romanoff for his support of Hillary Clinton during the marathon 2008 presidential primary. Whatever the genesis of the endorsement, it is a major league shot in the arm for Team Romanoff.
IL-Sen: Kirk emerges from hiding, makes series of absurd statements
Forgive the editorializing, but if ever there was a political news item worthy of a hefty dose of skeptical snark, it was this one. Mark Kirk, who had been in hiding recently after nearly imploding his one campaign behind a raft of embellishments to his personal biography, emerged for a press conference that was limned by many as the rebirth of his campaign. It was not an error-free outing for a candidate that desperately needed one. He explained his disappearing act as being "overbooked," and explained away his impressive list of embellishments by saying he "wasn't thinking" (ironically, a defense utilized by my preschool-aged daughter just last week). Highlight of the proceedings: the partisan crowd chanting "move on, move on" in defense of their guy.
WI-Sen: PPP declares Senate race a toss-up
This is going to be at least a little bit disconcerting for some folks--PPP has polled the state of Wisconsin, and they have incumbent Democratic Senator Russ Feingold barely ahead of his rivals for the seat. The pollster has Feingold leading Republican Ron Johnson by two points (45-43), and lesser-known GOP challenger Dave Westlake by seven points (45-38). The sample was almost even among 2008 McCain and Obama voters. That could lead some to complain about the sample, but it could just as easily speak to the enthusiasm gap that has been much discussed both here and elsewhere.
THE U.S. HOUSE
ID-01: Another day, another GOPer too ideological for even the CoC
This is getting to be quite the trend, isn't it. Today, the Chamber of Commerce endorsed yet another Democrat for election, eschewing a Republican nominee that is generally considered to be placed on the far right of the spectrum. This time around, it is in Idaho, where the CoC has given its endorsement to Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick over GOP contender Raul Labrador. This was a particularly painful development for Labrador, who had built at least part of his campaign around the notion that Minnick was "anti-business."
KS-04: GOP contender has some 'splaining to do in tax gaffe
Wink Hartman is running for Congress in the Wichita-based 4th Congressional District of Kansas. Unfortunately for the millionaire businessman, this fact has caught the attention of tax collectors in Florida. Palm Beach's tax assessor is curious as to why Hartman, who has collected a Homestead tax exemption in the Sunshine State since 2005, had not notified them of his change of residency. His campaign is arguing that he is not seeking the exemption any more, and that he has filed paperwork to that end.
LA-02: Richmond internal poll claims huge Dem primary edge
New internal polling from relatively new Democratic House candidate Cedric Richmond says that he holds a solid edge over fellow state legislator Juan LaFonta in a prospective Dem primary. According to Richmond's numbers from Zata 3 Consulting, he holds a 53-13 lead over LaFonta. No mention, however, if any general election numbers were collected. The winner of that Democratic primary will take on GOP incumbent Joseph Cao, who is running the most Democratic-friendly district currently represented by a Republican.
RI-01/RI-02: State party gives out endorsements for primaries
While the state party endorsement process in Rhode Island carries little practical value for the candidates, it does carry some serious symbolic value, especially when the longtime chairman of the party saw both his candidacy and that of his brother denied. That is exactly what happened in Rhode Island on Monday, as longtime former Democratic chairman Bill Lynch saw the party endorse his intraparty rival, Providence Mayor David Cicilline, for the nod in the 1st Congressional District being vacated by Patrick Kennedy. In less of a surprise, they also endorsed incumbent Jim Langevin in the second district, where he is being challenged by former state legislator Betsy Dennigan.
BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: Smarter end-of-the-quarter philanthropy
Swing State Project is part of my daily reading (as it should be for any serious election junkie). Late yesterday, Crisitunity over at SSP put together one of my favorite pieces of the recent weeks--exploring, as the fundraising quarter draws to a close, which potentially vulnerable Democratic congressmen have been the most loyal to the cause. For those looking to drop a little coin before the deadline expires tomorrow night, it is an absolute must read.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AL-Gov: Bentley internal poll gives him big lead in runoff
It has been the conventional wisdom down South that Alabama GOP primary runner-up Robert Bentley was actually the betting favorite for the July 13th runoff election. New polling data from the Bentley campaign would seem to confirm that. The poll, by Dresner Wicker Associates, shows Bentley up on his challenger (primary leader Bradley Byrne) by a 46-27 margin. This would seem to imply (although the standard caveats about internal polling apply) that Bentley has consolidated conservative support, while Byrne is stuck with basically the same folks who voted for him in Round #1.
CA-Gov: New public poll gives Brown lead in Golden State showdown
Consistency has apparently come to the political picture in California, as yet another poll out of the Golden State shows Democratic nominee Jerry Brown with a modest lead over free-spending GOP contender Meg Whitman. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, referenced earlier vis-a-vis the Senate race, gives Brown a six point edge over Whitman (45-39). Every recent poll, including even polls taken by Rasmussen and the right-wing Pajamas Media, have given Brown leads.
IA-Gov: Branstad keeps poking at Vander Plaats' cage
To an outside observer, it almost seems as if Terry Branstad is daring vanquished primary rival Bob Vander Plaats to run in November as an Independent. After taunting him yesterday with his "we won fair and square" post-convention commentary, he has now turned to minimizing the danger of a Vander Plaats third-party run, comparing the conservative stalwart to Chris Daggett, the third-party candidate who some GOPers feared would keep Jon Corzine in office last year.
OH-Gov: Dueling pollsters in Strickland-Kasich affair
Depending on whether you are buying the new data from PPP or the new numbers from Quinnipiac, incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland is either a little bit ahead in his bid for re-election, or a little bit behind (of course, with margin of error, they could both be in the wheelhouse on this one). PPP paints the more pessimistic picture for the Governor, showing him trailing Republican nominee John Kasich by two points (43-41). Quinnipiac, meanwhile, puts Strickland out in front, albeit by a modest five-point margin (43-38). Notable in the Q poll: they claim that Kasich's negatives have doubled since their last poll.
RI-Gov: State party denies a Lynch here, as well
As mentioned earlier, the state party endorsements in Rhode Island wound up being somewhat of a repudiation of longtime former state chairman Bill Lynch. Not only did Lynch himself lose the endorsement in RI-01, but his brother, state Attorney General Patrick Lynch, also was denied, as the committee voted 88-32 to endorse state treasurer Frank Caprio, instead. It is worth noting, for the record, that several candidates for Governor in recent years (including former Governor Lincoln Almond on the GOP side) have been nominated despite being denied the party endorsement.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras goes coast-to-coast (and beyond) on this Tuesday, running across from the Empire State all the way to Hawaii. In between, they visit Louisiana, where they predictably counter recent polling which hinted that Charlie Melancon might be tightening the gap in the Pelican State.
HI-Sen: Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) 68%, John Roco (R) 20%
LA-Sen: Sen. David Vitter (R) 53%, Charlie Melancon (D) 35%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Rick Lazio (R) 28%
NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 25%