So says Politico's Mike Allen:
Top Arkansas sources tell us the state’s political establishment expects Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) to LOSE her primary runoff tonight by at least 5 points -- and perhaps 7 to 10, since insurgents have been outperforming their polls this year. That’ll make her the fifth incumbent member of Congress to get fired even before November. She’ll be the third senator (after Bennett of Utah and Specter of Pennsylvania), making the most primary-season defeats for senators since 1980, when four went down. (hat tip: Howard Mortman) Two House incumbents also have lost: Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-W.Va.) and Rep. Parker Griffith (R-Ala.), who switched D. In another time, Lincoln’s seat on the Agriculture Committee would have served as an insurance policy with voters in the rural state. Now, anything about Washington is bad. For once, the media aren’t exaggerating: It’ll be an ugly November for insiders.
That analysis should probably be honed a bit: it's not necessarily an ugly year for insiders across the board, it's an ugly year for pols who have betrayed the basic principles of their party. Her obstruction on health reform is just a drop in the bucket of betrayal Dems feel.
And it's an ugly year for the corporatists. Dems voting in today's primary aren't going to be swayed by her argument that labor--representing the working people of Arkansas--are some evil force in politics when they can look at where her support is coming from:
$10,000 from Chevron
$5000 from ExxonMobil
$5000 from Occidental Petroleum
$4000 from British Petroleum
$7000 from Anadarko
$6000 from Bayer
$5500 from Blue Cross Blue Shield
$5000 from Boeing
$5000 from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
$6000 from Comcast
$6500 from Goldman Sachs
$6500 from JP Morgan Chase
$7000 from Lockheed Martin
$8000 from Wal-Mart
Lincoln is not losing because people are pissed at insiders. Lincoln's losing because she's a piss poor excuse for a Democrat, and Arkansas Dems are tired of being betrayed.
If you're feeling last-minute fiscal enthusiasm for Bill Halter, here's where to go.
There's more discussion in KingofSpades' diary.
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